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Lalor race at Sandown may have come too soon and the horse is better left handed. I’m not as concerned about the ground as some.
If he does return to the form of his first go over fences the price could look very big
The race is definitely going to be run to suit as well
Backed him ante post in a couple of trixies after that run at cheltenham so I’m happy with lalor as the back up option to hardline
I backed Lalor and Kalashnikov months ago but wouldn’t touch either at current prices. You need something of a leap of faith to entertain Slate House as the value bet of the race but I don’t think that leap is nearly as big as his odds suggest. Below from my blog.
The best value bet for me on day one is EW Slate House in the Arkle (2.10). On the form of his three steeplechases so far you cannot give him a realistic chance, but I’m in no doubt whatever that he is yet to show his true potential.
A £260,000 purchase by trainer Tizzard in 2017, he came to the track in October of that year with a high home reputation and duly won his novice hurdle at Cheltenham comfortably. Three weeks later he appeared again on the same track in a Grade 2 and beat Summerville Boy (2018 Supreme winner) into second.
He turned out next in another Grade 2 at Ascot to finish an 8 length fourth to Claimintakinforgan, then, a month later, 5th to Santini. He was keeping good company, but a feature of those two defeats compared with his victories was the way he weakened and found little when the pressure was applied, sometimes the sign of a horse with breathing problems.
Sure enough he was fitted with a tongue tie (almost always used as a breathing aid) for his next run, The Supreme last year, where he was in the process of running the best race of his career when falling heavily at the last. He had travelled sweetly through that race and was keeping on (rather than folding, as he’d done before) although he would not have won.
A month later he ran at Aintree where he raced keenly and faded disappointingly. That doesn’t bother me too much; many festival participants fail to produce anything like their form at Aintree.
After a nine-month break he made his fencing debut in January behind the French hotpot Master Dino at Plumpton and he ran well for a long way, entitled to come on for the race. But he disappointed next time at Haydock and had wind surgery in early February. His 3rd fencing run came a month later and was the best of his chasing career finishing 2nd to Huntsman Son over 2m4f at Newbury. Slate House is a fine stamp of a horse and his breeding suggests staying chases might be his forte, but his racing style indicates otherwise to me and I think trips of around 2 miles could be his optimum.
They race on the old course for The Arkle, and over hurdles Slate House is 2 from 3 on this track (fell in The Supreme on his other run). Tizzard does much better with chasers than hurdlers and I doubt he is running this just for a day out (though it must be said the yard has not been in great form lately). Finally, Cobden rides, an excellent young jockey brimming with confidence. If the wind surgery has solved Slate House’s breathing problems (tongue tie also retained), he will run a big race.
I’ve backed him EW with Skybet at 50/1 to 4 places. 66/1 is available to three places and bigger again on the exchanges. I’ll also have a win bet, probably at around 80/1 on the exchange.
Good luck if you decide to follow me. I’ll post more Cheltenham thoughts for day one later. Incidentally, I’ve also had an EW double with Skybet on Slate House and Singlefarmpayment in the Ultima and recommend you do the same.
I ended up with:
Hardline 8/1
Ornua 14/1
Voix de Reve 25/1Hardline has some decent form in the books with Getabird & Us and Them. Ground shouldn’t be an issue and Davy Russell on board is a plus as well. Besides that with all the pace involved the race will be perfectly set up for him. I backed Ornua on his run in the Henry VIII chase at Sandown. He ran a great race on soft ground and was only narrowly beaten by Dynamite Dollars. I think the Dynamite Dollars would have been a favourite for this. A fair price to find out if he can jump as good at Cheltenham.
Interesting to hear they’ve taken Kalashnikov ‘showjumping ‘ to sharpen him up and also much better back left handed so happy to stick with him and e/w Slate House who is still huge price on bet365.
I think that Glen Forsa will win this, but I’ve bet Lalor, who I think could be underrated after Sandown.
My only bet in this is Slate House who I very shrewdly backed before his first chase start at 50-1. After his trainer’s ringing endorsement yesterday that “he might finish in the first six and he’ll still be a novice for next year” he has been smashed into 66-1….
…so I took it.
Move over Western Warhorse…I think we’ll see a better Kalashnikov this time around
was 1/4 fav when beaten by Glen Forsa lto but I’m taking the view that everything he has done this season would have been a build up to today. The course and going gets ticksBlackbeard to conquer the World
Fact there are so many front/prominent runners would worry me with Kalashnikov – doesn’t seem to jump as well with horses in front of him.
With the time of the first race proving it’s not as soft as they’re saying, if I wasn’t already on Lalor already, I would be now.
Value Is EverythingMad, mad race.
I’m convinced that it’s the conditions with Lalor. Has won on Soft but hates winter conditions – it’s cold, wet and windy
Thanks lads.
Take DDG out and I think the placed horses aren’t really up to usual Arkle places. Things conspired to give the winner an easy time.
GlenForsa jumped brilliantly when out in front last time; but with so many front runners being behind horses is a different thing; unseated. Lalor seemed disinterested once hampered early and Hardline didn’t want to know either (races with ears pricked and possibly a thinker). Knocknannus missed the break and probably took a bit out of himself getting a prominent posi. Paloma Blue didn’t jump (as is Paloma Blue). I was wrong about Kalshnikov, Nathan; jumped really well until unlikily hampered and essentially brought down by the usual exceptional jumper Ornua. So DDG’s main rivals all have a certain amount of excuses. But again, the Mullins horse won well enough to think he would’ve won anyway.
Value Is Everything
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