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Think I’ve got you now EC.
Is your point that it’s not the Derby that determines how good/bad the crop is. The crop will be good or bad regardless of what happens in the Derby.
If so then it is entirely logical and I wholeheartedly agree.
Think the penny has dropped. :)
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 7:17 pm on Sep. 16, 2006[br]
I see Deep Impact has been heavily backed recently. Even the 7/2 is starting to go.<br>
<br>It’s Zorro’s millions forcing the price down. ;)
I see Deep Impact has been heavily backed recently. Even the 7/2 is starting to go.
Surely alot of this has to do with the press coverage the horse has recieved this week particularly in the Racingpost. I suspect it will continue right up to the day and he will go off a very short price if the ground is on the fast side. Too short.<br>
Hey Cormack15 all i can say is WOW! great post on the Arc finish. But lets hope all the English runners in the Abbeye have the 663 squadron theme music not that they need it mind you!!
I have never looked forward to a race as much as I am this years Arc. It looks like it could be sensational.<br>I have backed Deep Impact at 11/2 and Rail Link at 25/1.<br>If Deep Impact runs like he does in Japan he wins imo. This horse is a phenomenon. He broke the 2 mile track record in the Tenno Sho by over a second running the last 3 furlongs in 33.5. This is crazy. He is equally impressive over 10f, 11f and 12f. Japanese form looks strong with hearts cry running well in a tactical king george and probably would have run better with a prep. Hearts Cry of course beat deep impact but there were excuses that day, namely an exceptionally short home straight and this was deep impact’s 11th race (I think) of a very long 3 yo campaign. He has improved considerably as a 4yo. <br>I believe DI could be the real deal and will win by 2 lengths going away and become one of the all time greats. <br>I also have a bet on rail link who I backed before the prix niel due to the stat about horses starting fav for the niel going on to win the arc. He has also run a time over course and dstance which has only been bettered 4 or 5 times before I believe. <br>If the ground is soft on oct 1st I will definatley have a saver on shirrocco (although i could see going him very short if that was the case). He is virtually unbeatable on soft imo.<br>Let’s just hope all the main protagonists turn up to what could be the best race for decades!<br>I dont fancy sir percy at all. the derby was such a slowly run race i think he just outsprinted his rivals. even if he is a good horse, will he be able to beat schiroc ,HR ,DI ,pride, rail link? I doubt it . thets hope he goes off nice and short for a Max Place lay! I might recoup some of the ££ i lost laying him for the Derby then!<br>Roll on oct 1st…;)
Hi Tomonory – welcome to the Forum!
I’m coming around to Deep Impact myself although the shark still has it for me.
It will be interesting if the German horse, Lauro, (600/1 on Betfair) runs, not to speak of Tam Lin.
Watching the video of his performance in his third last race, over 1m2f, Tam Lin did something remarkable, Dick Mordin has commented on more than once – picking up and overtaking when the horses in front had got first run, were accelerating away.
I think he had to angle out, and lost ground at the very time when the two in front, the high class horses, Windsor Knot and Khyber Kim, began to take off for the finish.
Unperturbed, he regained his balance and began his own dash for the finish, catching up and pipping Windsor Knot at the finish – even seeming to be going away.
Still, they’d need to be more than a little special to beat the first two favs, wouldn’t they? And who knows what other dark horses might emerge?
(Edited by Grimes at 12:14 am on Sep. 18, 2006)
Hi Grimes, Sorry but the German horse is not good enough really!he was well stuffed int German Derby and the winner of that has since been beaten,all in all the 3yr-olds that ran in Hamburg are nowhere near Arc material…. and er er Tam Lin???in the Arc
Sir Percy is out of the ARC
Shame, thankfully I hadn’t invested heavily ante-post, but I really would have loved the good/bad derby debate to be put to bed
I am going right off ante post betting :angry:
But Mt’s quotes earlier today pretty well assured us that he will be in training at 4. One of the reasons hes missing the arc
Has this been the reason he has been humming and hawwing about running him or not after all? Up to yesterday there was still a doubt but no mention of an injury. Were this Ballydoyle,Stoute or Godolophin we would hear people complain that they did not keep the public informed.
Whatever the reason, no one would complain about MT’s communications surely…
If anything, he keeps the public better informed than just about any other trainer
So it seemed clive. But as you say yourself, your an antepost punter. Would you be happy to know that the trainer all this time did not mention this injury if indeed this was the reason he was humming and hawwing about running or not?
Of course if it happened this morning there is no problem at all…
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