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BTW Zorro, enjoyed your piece in the Weekender, questioning your colleague’s rating of Deep Impact. I wish more people would realise that ratings, be it RPR’s, Sportsman, Timeform or BHB one’s are merely opinion and not fact.
Quote: from stevedvg on 3:42 pm on Sep. 15, 2006[br]I suppose the French 3 year olds look very poor.
I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that.
Visindar looked special, but got injured.
LOOKED SPECIAL??…WAS THIS WHEN HE WAS BEATING NOTHING OR FAILING TO TO WIN THE ENGLISH DERBY. IM NOT SAYING WE SHOULD GIVE UP ON HIM BUT HES NOTHING SPECIAL YET.
And, if you took the 2 older Fabre horses out of the Arc, Rail Link would be pretty short odds.
PERHAPS BUT WOULD YOU STILL FANCY HIM TO BEAT DEEP IMPACT, PRIDE ETC.
And, to me, that’s the point: there’s these 2 exceptional older French horses that are both better than all the 3yos (English, Irish as well as French).
YEAH BUT ARE THESE OLDER HORSES THAT EXCEPTIONAL OR RATHER THAT THESE THREE YEAR OLDS ARE NOT MUCH REALLY. IF YOU THINK RAIL LINK IS A GOOD STANDARD, THEN YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT YOUZEMAIN IS ALMOST THAT STANDARD AS WELL.
Certainly there Derby was not up to scratch
… just like this year’s English derby…
I THINK THE IRISH DERBY PROVES THE POINT THAT THERE DERBY WAS NOT AS GOOD AS THE ENGLISH ONE AND IM NOT CONVINCED THE ENGLISH DERBY FORM HAS BEEN TESTED FULLY YET. IF SIR PERCY COMES OUT AND WINS THE ARC, WE MIGHT ALL BE SAYING THAT IT WASNT THAT BAD.
Remember, 2 years ago the Jockey Club was a really poor race (won by Bleu Canari), but a French 3yo still won the Arc.
Anyway, these days I’d be more inclined to look towards the GP de Paris and the Irish Derby to find the French 3yo that’s most likely to win the Arc.
I THINK THAT MEANS YOUR LOOKING AT THE GRAND PRIX DE PARIS THIS YEAR SO AND OF COURSE, IT WOULDNT BE THE BIGGEST SHOCK IN THE WORLD IF RAIL LINK WENT ON TO PROVE HIMSELF VERY GOOD HORSE BUT I WOULDNT BE RUSHING OUT TO BACK HIM AGAINST ANY PROVEN OLDER STOCK OR EVEN AGAINST DYLAN THOMAS JUST YET.
Steve <br>
a
SHL
Cormack – post of the year!!!
I’m shocked Hurricane Run is so behind in the vote. I’m also very suprised that Deel Impact is leading.
As for his ‘coming from the clouds’ racing style……
I seem to remember Hurricane Run was about 2nd last turning into the straight last year……
Visindar looked special, but got injured.
LOOKED SPECIAL??…WAS THIS WHEN HE WAS BEATING NOTHING OR FAILING TO TO WIN THE ENGLISH DERBY. IM NOT SAYING WE SHOULD GIVE UP ON HIM BUT HES NOTHING SPECIAL YET.
"Looked special" not "is special".
As for failing to win the English derby, here’s a bunch of possible reasons:
didn’t handle an unusual course, <br>didn’t like the fast ground, <br>wasn’t helped by the slow pace,<br>wasn’t helped by being bumped at a key part of the race, <br>didn’t stay the trip, <br>is a slow old boat.
One race is one race. A 2l defeat in a slow run race doesn’t define a horse.
As far as I’m concerned, if we ever see him again, the jury is still out.
And, if you took the 2 older Fabre horses out of the Arc, Rail Link would be pretty short odds.
PERHAPS BUT WOULD YOU STILL FANCY HIM TO BEAT DEEP IMPACT, PRIDE ETC.
I said before that it’s a 4 horse race to me. I think that, without HR and Shirocco, Rail Link could win and would deserve to be in the first 2 of the betting (assuming decent ground).
As I also said, I think that it’s difficult to say how good Deep Impact really is and I’ve got my doubts about him on that parituclar course.
So, while I think that DI should be shorter odds than DI, I could certainly see the French horse beating him.
As for Pride, she’s a good mare but she’s 18 on betfair. To me that’s because we know how good she is and that is "not up to Arc standard".
However, RI has potential.
And, to me, that’s the point: there’s these 2 exceptional older French horses that are both better than all the 3yos (English, Irish as well as French).
YEAH BUT ARE THESE OLDER HORSES THAT EXCEPTIONAL OR RATHER THAT THESE THREE YEAR OLDS ARE NOT MUCH REALLY. IF YOU THINK RAIL LINK IS A GOOD STANDARD, THEN YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT YOUZEMAIN IS ALMOST THAT STANDARD AS WELL.
I "have to"? I don’t agree.
By the same logic, if you think Sir Percy is a G1 class horse, you must think Dragon Dancer is one too.
I THINK THE IRISH DERBY PROVES THE POINT THAT THERE DERBY WAS NOT AS GOOD AS THE ENGLISH ONE AND IM NOT CONVINCED THE ENGLISH DERBY FORM HAS BEEN TESTED FULLY YET. IF SIR PERCY COMES OUT AND WINS THE ARC, WE MIGHT ALL BE SAYING THAT IT WASNT THAT BAD.
I think the English Derby form is worthless.
Again, it goes back to the blanket finish with Dragon Dancer in second.
That’s not to say that the horses in the race aren’t capable of winning a proper G1 – after all, Dylan Thomas has won 2 since then – but just that, whatever happened in the Derby should IMO be ignored.
Anyway, these days I’d be more inclined to look towards the GP de Paris and the Irish Derby to find the French 3yo that’s most likely to win the Arc.
I THINK THAT MEANS YOUR LOOKING AT THE GRAND PRIX DE PARIS THIS YEAR
No, it means that, since the Jockey Club was changed to <br>10.5f, it’s sensible to assume that the real 12f colts will run in either the Irish or the GP de Paris.
Last year, Hurricane Run ran in the Irish Derby (as well as the jockey club).
This year, their current top 12f colt (Rail Link) ran in the GP de Paris and their big talking horse (Visindar) went to England instead of Chantilly.
My guess is that Visindar’s experience this year is going to mean that Fabre’s not going to be rushing back to the English derby so, in the future I’d be looking for the best of the French 12f colts either at the Curragh or at Longchamp.
Steve
Quote from EC – "For instance, how a horse finishing down the field in a 12f race at Epsom 4 months ago can "uphold" the Derby form if it wins over 14f at York in September does puzzle me a bit. Is it the same animal that ran at Epsom..has it not developed/regressed."
I see your point EC but once enough of them have run again it does provide us with evidence around which to base a subjective evaluation of the quality of the Derby field.
Surely?
Quote: from EC on 12:22 am on Sep. 16, 2006[br]All this judging the Derby by what horses do months after..when some/all of the horses are very different beasts is a bit of a nonsense to me.
Lets say that the Derby was abandoned 10 minutes before the start this year..so we would still know the field that would have run…those horses would still have performed in a similar way subsequently..so what does actually running in the race have to do with any subsequent runs?
What we are actually talking about is the 3yo 12f+ division and how good it is..the Derby is always going to be contested by mainly the best of the generation at that point in time..so if we never ran the race..we would just be saying..they are a decent set of 3yo’s this year…the actual race is not upheld in any way by how horses perform subsequently…because they would have performed the same with or without that race taking place.
For instance, how a horse finishing down the field in a 12f race at Epsom 4 months ago can "uphold" the Derby form if it wins over 14f at York in September does puzzle me a bit. Is it the same animal that ran at Epsom..has it not developed/regressed.
If we are going to put a value on how good a Derby is using this type of method..then it would be fair to say that if one of this years..or last years Derby runners gets beaten in a seller in 3 years time..we can then judge that Derby a poor race..bit of a nonsense really isn’t it?
who makes the rules up about how much time passes before this upholding or devalueing of a race ceases:cheesy:
(Edited by EC at 12:24 am on Sep. 16, 2006)<br>
YES BUT EC I SUPPOSE THATS A JUDGEMENT CALL. OF COURSE WE ALL RECOGNISE THAT HORSES ARE DEVELOPING AND MANY ARE REGRESSING AND ALSO THAT EPSOM ..BECAUSE OF ITS FUNNY CHARACTERISTICS WILL SURPRESS SOME HORSES ABILITIES WHILE ALLOWING OTHERS TO LOOK AS IF THERE PUNCHING ABOVE THERE WEIGHT. A STRICT READING OF COLLATERAL FORM WOULD HAVE US ALL VERY CONFUSED.
IM JUST SAYING THAT IF HALA BEK WERE TO MAKE A GOOD 4 YEAR OLD AND SIR PERCY WAS TO RUN SOME NICE RACES ALONG WITH DYLAN THOMAS, THEN WE WOULD COULD SAY THERE WAS SOME NICE HORSES IN THAT DERBY.
STEVIE, JUST TO REITERATE A POINT, I HAVE TO SAY THAT I DONT SEE YET THAT RAILINK IS ANOTHER DHALAKI, ANOTHER PEINTRE CELEBRE, ANOTHER MONJEU, ANOTHER HELISSIO, OR ANOTHER HURRICANE RUN JUST YET. IN FACT, I WOULD FANCY PRIDE TO BEAT HIM WITH ANY DIG IN THE GROUND AND I CERTAINLY HAVENT SEEN (AND WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN ONE OVER HERE EITHER) A RACE WITH FRENCH 3 YEAR OLD COLTS WHERE I THOUGHT, THATS GOING TO THROW UP A COUPLE OF TOP CLASS HORSES. NICK MORDIN THOUGHT HE HAD BUT I JUST THINK THE OLDER HORSE HAVE NOTHING TO NOTHING TO FEAR FROM THEM AT ALL.
SHL
Thank you David Johnson. Couldn’t agree more.<br>What rating will Deep Impact get after the Arc? How about a guess?
I really would like him to do something special, a 2 length victory over Shirocco with the rest another 4 lengths back, (Hurricane Run failing to give his running after metting trouble) could see him with a figure of 136/137 I reckon. El Condor Pasa was rated 136 by Timeform after his Arc and Deep Impact looks to have better form at this stage than that horse did.
I think that might be a good guess. I haven’t spoken to a Japanese who doesn’t think he’s much better than El Condor Pasa, or one who doesn’t think he’s now much better than Heart’s Cry.
Quote: from EC on 12:42 pm on Sep. 16, 2006[br]IM JUST SAYING THAT IF HALA BEK WERE TO MAKE A GOOD 4 YEAR OLD AND SIR PERCY WAS TO RUN SOME NICE RACES ALONG WITH DYLAN THOMAS, THEN WE WOULD COULD SAY THERE WAS SOME NICE HORSES IN THAT DERBY.
now that makes a lot more sense to me
whats with the caps lock SHL..you got it stuck?:biggrin: <br>
no….craving attension. Its a childhood thing..
SHL
I have to admit to investing rather heavily on Shirocco over the last few months. If this doesn’t win then the whole flat season has been a disaster for me.
I usually do much better on the level than over the sticks but this year (since around July) has been an absolute shambles. :(
Which is why I’m saying – roll on the jumps!;)
I’ll back Sir Percy provided everything is Ok. Hurricane Run would be the one I’d fear most.
As for the Derby form, what’s wrong with it? Dylan Thomas has come out to win two group ones, Sixties Icon has since won a classic, Snoqualmie Boy has won a listed race, thats not bad. Added to that Dragon Dancer although very difficult to win with has been placed in numerous group races.
It looks good to me when you consider three of the first five – Sir Percy, Visindar and Hala Bek (therefore probably three of the best horses in the race) haven’t run since.
Good quality Derby IMO.
EC
Bad racehorses (relatively) produce ‘poor form’.
Bad racehorses (relatively) running in a Derby means that particular Derby form will be ‘poor’. A bad crop WOULD mean the Derby form was poor, particularly if none win subsequently.
To argue any other viewpoint is to fly in the face of logic.<br>
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