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The comfortable winner of the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris has been given a quote of 20/1 for The Arc by Ladbrokes. Given he is in different ownership than most of Fabres horses, there is a good chance he will have a crack at The Arc. Without wishing to cause more disagreements, what do speed figure compilers make of his performance as it seemed very fast.
I’m sure we’ll have a good idea a month before the Arc whether Rail Link has a chance or not (and whether he turns up or not), but 20/1 is a big price isn’t it? Most English punters will not be aware of this horse (I would presume) and so its better than its odds suggest.
Its got Deep Impact to beat;)
20s looks big. French-trained 3yos have won 7 of the last 10 Arcs, and been second in the other three. Those in the betting currently are:
Visindar (14/1) (Fabre/Aga Khan)<br>Rail Link (20/1) (Fabre/Abdulla)<br>Gentlewave (20/1) (Fabre/Tanaka)<br>Darsi (20/1) (De Royer-Dupre/Aka Khan)<br>Best Name (40/1) (Collet/Vidal)<br>Lindas Lad (50/1) (Fabre/Mulryan)
There’s certainly an argument that Rail Link could be the best of them.
Ouija Board was 65 on BF a couple of days ago for the Arc. Amazing price.
I know shes being aimed at the breeders Cup and then HK – does anyone know do they expect to take in the Arc first?
Not to mention Shawanda at almost 30/1, very tempting if Godolphin were able to get their horses on to the racecourse…
Am quite bored at work so looked up an old thread.
What is happening with Shawanda??
Anyone fancy Rail Link for the Arc? Perhaps it might be worth getting on before the Prix Niel as that doesn’t look the strongest renewal..
No idea, Rail Link is 11.5 on betfair. Anyone know where the entries are for this race? They’re not on the RP website..
I’ve liked Rail Link since the Grand Prix De paris (or whatever it is) but by the time I put my hand in my pocket I only got 14/1. Can’t see Shawanda even competing now let alone winning it.
Interesting how the market has really tightened up too.
The Arc is really hotting up this year – arguably the world’s 3 greatest horses all entered in Shirocco, Hurricane Run and Deep Impact, along with the impressive filly Mandesha, the unimpressive Niel winner Rail Link, possibly Irish Derby winner Dylan Thomas, Derby winner Sir Percy may run, Sixties Icon could be supplemented, and arguably the most impressive horse of all last weekend, Grand Prix de Paris winner Pride.
My preference is with Deep Impact and Pride. Pride looked absolutely brilliant in the Foy, hardly being asked a question and finished just 2 necks behind Shirocco. She has followed a similar race pattern to Hurricane Run, and Royer Dupre is not a mickey mouse trainer. Just as Fabre with Rail Link, Shirocco and Hurricane Run has left them 10 or 20% short of their best, Royer Dupre will have done a similar thing with Pride.
And Deep Impact – has gone brilliantly on good and fast ground, and i don’t think a little bit of cut in the ground would inconvenience him. The jockey Take has ridden loads of brilliant horses, Zenno Rob Roy included, and he says Deep Impact is the ‘best he’s ever ridden.’
He has destroyed everything in Japan, and really should have beaten Heart’s Cry on Christmas Day last year, who went on to finish 3rd in the Diamond Stakes, and probably could have won with a better ride.
At around 4/1, I think he’s a far better bet than Shirocco or Hurricane Run.
Who do you think will win, and why?
Beat me to making the poll Jack. Fast ground and I like Deep Impact, Good ground and I like Rail Link and soft ground I like Shirocco. Easy!…..
On paper it looks an absolute vintage renewal.
For me, possibly the biggest factor to take into account will be the ground. Slow underfoot conditions would play into the hands of Hurricane run and Shirocco. Faster conditions and Deep Impact would have a favourites chance followed closely by Rail link.
Rail Link posted a seriously quick time in the Grand Prix de Paris, and if (unlikely though it seems) the ground is quick, and with the generous weight allowance for 3 year olds, he would have to have a fantastic chance. It’s important to remember what exactly the Prix niel is – a trial. Fabre never has his Arc hopes anywhere near fully wound up and they will never put up a visually exciting performace. Rail Link is relatively unexposed as a 3 yo and you would hope there would be further improvement to come although that would need to be considerable to beat HR, Shirocco et al.
Deep Impact has been visually without equal, and again with quick ground would have a great chance. However, his style of racing held up and wide will not be suited to the Longchamp straight. I would expect him to finish fast but I have reservations about Mr Take. Racing wide around the sweeping turn into the homestraight will mean DI will need to be at least 2 lengths superior to the rest of the field … unlikely imo.
Shirocco must have a great chance…with conditions likely to suit (I think he’s 2/3 pounds better on softer ground), and with the horses uncomplicated style of racing reducing the possibility of a hard luck story, he rates for me a much better proposition than Hurricance run, who has been largely unconvincing this year. HR has tended to run in snatches this year, will need luck in running and is running against a potentially much better field than the corresponding race last year. The jockey booking for Shirocco is also a major plus as Dettori is excellent from near the front (would imagine Shirocco sitting just a place or 2 off the leader) and Soumi is fantastic at Longchamp.
2 relative outsiders are Pride, who without having the reputation of the market leaders has almost comparable form this year, and Sir Percy, who is still unexposed and capable of at least as much improvement imo as Dylan Thomas but think a little more would be required to win. Pride also has the unfortunate knack of sometimes finding trouble which for me makes her a slightly less attractive betting proposition.
I think connections of sixties icon are wasting money with little chance of recouping it by supplementing the Leger winner. If the aim for the Roys is to have a runner in the Arc, by all means go ahead but there are at least 6 horses with much, much stronger claims.
All in all, a potentially amazing race, of true championship quaity. Can’t wait :)
Ive taken 16’s Sir percy
The improvement should continue and the connections are very raving about his work
Now that there is alittle more confidence about staying, he should be ridden closer to the pace. But as much as anything I just love his tough determined streak and if there was ever a race where this was required…
16’s too big, even with the risk he may not run
Sp could be one of those horses who is always underbet because he only ever does enough.. Unbeaten apart from over a mile to (possibly) the most precocious 3yo miler in training, that form compares with most and being a tough battler is a good quality to have in the Arc.. E/W for me
And if the ground is good DI to win.. I would fear HR the most
Crackin race though, can’t wait
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