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Interesting observation about a reaction to commentators glib comments, if punters are going to place money based on another (in running) persons comments, when I presume they can see the race unfolding before them then surely you are on to an angle that exposes punters who have more money than judgement/sense.<br>
Carlisle – it’s not that scary when there is a fiver at stake! I am sure it would be a different matter if the stakes were upped significantly. Then there would be a real test of discipline. For example, if I’d have laid Amaretto Rose pre-race for 2 grand you can guarantee I would’ve backed much shorter than 3 in running (I’d laid at 2.06 and she could be backed at 2.2 – 2.3 quite readily mid-race).
Factorman – I’ve not really explored in-running to any degree before but my observation is that commentators comments (positive and negative) do seem to inspire price swings. I’d trust my judgement over a commentators comment any day. Not saying I am a better race reader than them but they have to say something non-stop during the race and quite often come out with vague generalities which are irrelevant but which people do seem to latch on to. It’s like when you’re at the races and the commentator says something like ‘and the favourite is now making a forward move’. That will inevitably provoke a reaction, anything from an excited murmur upwards will pass through the stands, even though it might mean the horse has done nothing more than pass one or two deadbeats who are dropping out of contention.<br>
Hi cormack
good luck to you, however I think trying to predict the horses that will be market movers would be a safer and more profitable approach.
For example Preacher Boy, the other week, was available at 5/1 EP and before the race could have been layed at 3/1. This was a no brainer for a potential gain of 66.66%.
Also you would have the option of, just covering your stake or taking a small loss if the price didn’t reduce.
Some research about which horses the public latch on to would be useful.  Plus I am sure you would have a pretty good idea yourself.
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps obviously you want to bet with 100’s of fivers, eventually……….
(Edited by carlisle at 7:26 am on Jan. 22, 2007)
Quite so Carlisle – just to clarify that I do look for horses who are likely to shorten/lengthen also and that the in-running bit is just one aspect of it.
Good day again today. I’d laid Almaydan with the intention of backing him in running. He ran a real in and out race and I decided not to back him as he looked like he wasn’t keen at all.<br>Then he came back into it but was never going to catch the winner, although I was slightly nervy as the leader approached the last.<br>A few other trades went well for small profits and I called a halt at 4.84 up.
So, after week 4 –
Target – 108.24<br>Result – 111.22
Cormack, if you are trading in running you really should use something like FairBot. You can set this up to automatically place the second part of a trade when the first part is matched. If you do this with a 5 or 10 tick offset and have confirm "off" your trades will often be closed within 2 seconds automatically to lock in a profit.
Day 5
Day starts with a reminder that one of my old adversaries, one we possibly all know rather too well, is constantly lying in wait. He’s called GREED and he came calling on my first trade of the day. Here’s the story, for what it’s worth.
Didn’t get under way until the 14.25 at Wetherby and, having looked down the list, felt that St. Matthew was too short, didn’t like what I saw in the book and laid it at 3.95, confident that I could trade in running on him.
He then shortens up and once I see him on TV can see why – he looks well up for it and duly bounds off looking like the Smith’s have got him well sorted to take advantage of his recent handicap slide.
I stick up an offer to back at 5 but then, seeing the jock twitch, withdraw it and he steadies at about 3.5.
Then, as they begin to reach the business end, he loses the lead and begins to struggle, drifting to 11+. I don’t back him! I figure why not take all the cash. Greed came visiting. Doubtful stayer Coat of Honour wilts in front, St. Matthew stays on past him, I’ve missed the price and I’m off to the worst possible start. Nightmare.
Another uphill struggle then this week and I can feel myself verging towards teh tilt button in the Cormack brain.
Next race Good Spirit looks a good thing. I back it at just over evens to win back most of what I’ve lost on St. Matthew and it never gives a moments worry. Thought about laying at about 1.4 with a fair few fences left but couldn’t bring myself to, such was my confidence. If he’d have fallen I’d have had a mountain to climb but he doesn’t and I’m back on an even keel.
Rest of the day spent nicking the odd quid here and there and by the end of the day I’ve increased the bank by 3.16. Hard earned though.
If I was playing for proper money that first race would have shook me and I am pretty sure it’d have affected my play adversely. This is reinforcing what I already believe – that discipline is one of the key elements of the successful punter.
I have it, discipline that is, when it’s sweetie money or when I’m on solid ground (e.g. a nice middle distance Gr1 race). In the rough and tumble of this type of trading I reckon that if my confidence took a knock with a big loss I’d be struggling to make the right decisions.
Anyway –
After day 5 target was 110.40 and my bank stands at 114.38.<br> <br>(btw – one or two have questioned whether I’m being honest with this. Those who know me will know that I am. I’m hardly likely to be boasting about having made two pound twenty a week now am I?)
Wallace – That is something I’m looking at. Don’t use bots and never have but might be interesting, for the purpose of this research, to have a go!
I see what you mean about the big loss affecting your confidence .. a friend of mine used to be a day-trader (small money £30K) and he said to me that you must have a loss/win method. He reckoned that you had to lock in a loss if you got it wrong and not try to brass it out for things to turn themsleves around.
Quote: from carlisle on 7:12 am on Feb. 4, 2007[br]Would you buy a second hand car off him?
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Depends if he offered me a special price! ;)
Quote: from cormack15 on 12:12 am on Feb. 4, 2007[br]Day 5
Day starts with a reminder that one of my old adversaries, one we possibly all know rather too well, is constantly lying in wait. He’s called GREED and he came calling on my first trade of the day. Here’s the story, for what it’s worth.
Didn’t get under way until the 14.25 at Wetherby and, having looked down the list, felt that St. Matthew….
…  better than Bunyan’s  Pilgrims Progress….:writing:
Enjoy your Odyssey, Cormack!
EveryPunter,  I will go with thee, and be thy guide, In thy most need to go by thy side. :cool:
Day 6
No big ups and downs yesterday, with most of my trades closed profitably before the off and those that weren’t were concluded in the early part of each race in running. Relatively straightforward day as it turned out then, although I had a few anxious moments watching Acambo, who I’d laid at 6.3, seemingly cantering on the heels of the leaders and trading at 4.2. As soon as Murphy moved on him he drifted though and I closed out (should have left it, eh?).
Profit on the day (after comm) of 2.70
Bank now 117.08<br>Target was 112.61
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Good going Corm and this is making interesting reading so keep it up.<br>I laid Acambo to not be placed and thought for one moment that I’d lost my money – just wish I’d backed the winner!
Getting more assured at this. My modus operandi has developed a little and I’m finding the best profit/risk ratio seems to be to back first, lay later. Laying first leaves a big exposure if you fail to back at a higher price, something which can be tricky if you’re playing in running and your lay jumps off full of running and sits with a double handful on the heels of the leaders. That type of horse is very difficult to back at a higher price in running.
Anyway – nice, clean day and no major upsets with all trades locking in a profit either before or during each race (although my friend Greed was unhappy at me after I’d laid off Chief Dan George in running, having backed it pre-race).
Profit on the day (after comm) of 5.40<br>Target – 114.87<br>Bank now – 122.48
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