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Musselburgh 2:20
County Hurdle
Surprised to see
Bocamix
outsider of the field in this contest. No chance in the christmas hurdle and I’m prepared to wipe that run off the CV. This is closer to his level and previous run at Haydock is a lot more desirable. Hunterview certainly has a good chance and warrants favouritism but at 5/2 I’d quite happy pass it up.
Bocamix
1pt e/w @ 66/1 Bet365, VCbet
Good to see some quality jumps action over the weekend and of course there were some very interesting runners. A runner that certainly interests for future appeal, though very early at this moment is
Chicago Grey
, I would love to see this fellow return for the festival in the Novice’s National Hunt Chase. He has done nothing but improve since being stepped up in trip and after another solid staying run Saturday highlighted his credentials for a 4 mile test around Cheltenham.
Got something right on this blog at least!
Having cast my eye over the Ayr card today it looks a really interesting and competitive card.
3.30 –
Ayrshire Post Handicap (Qualifier For Betfair Scottish Racing Mile Final)
An open looking contest and one that looks worth a pop at. Jewelled Dagger beat little of any significance on his first run for Keith Dalgleish and done so getting an easy lead and not exactly breaking the stop watch it looks a run well worth opposing him on. If you can lay the price currently around 4.1 I would suggest doing so. His nearest adversary in the market Focail Maith looks the right horse to start favourite but on his own merit looks short enough. Which brings me on to
Grand Diamond
, a let down last time on the flat it may be worth looking beyond that run and focusing on his run a few days earlier at Newcastle, in customary Grand Diamond style he travelled well in mid pack to around two out and finished well still closing at the line. This would represent a little bit of a drop in class to his last flat run at York and puts him back on a winning handicap mark of 66, which coincidently was his last flat run at the course.
Grand Diamond
1pt E/W – 14/1 Victor Chandler(BOG) and Bluesquare
UP
–
Shame can’t put Jewelled Dagger in the returns!Swinbank is having a resurgence lately and would be worth keeping an eye on. Northside Prince is a runner I have an eye on from that stable and if can get out while in such form would be a handicap winner in waiting.
With Glorious Goodwood just around the corner I’ve been delving into recent running’s of the festival to get a heads up.
I’ll start with trainers and what is obvious are those that clearly target the meeting.
Mark Johnston (87), Richard Hannon (89) and David Nicholls (73) have topped the list numerically for runners in the last 3 years.
2008
Trainer Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
Hannon, R 34 / 4 / 12% / -12.42 / 9 / 26% / -36.53% / -11.58 / 9.11[/color:15rycvec]
Johnston, M 28 / 3 / 11% / 2 / 8 / 29% / 7.14% / 3.56 / -6.31[/color:15rycvec]
Nicholls, D 23 / 2 / 9% / 4 / 7 / 30% / 17.39% / 5.6 / -8.05[/color:15rycvec]
Stoute, Sir Michael 15 / 3 / 20% / 0.5 / 4 / 27% / 3.33% / 1.13 / -2.42[/color:15rycvec]2009
Trainer Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
Johnston, M 31 / 5 / 16% / 27.5 / 9 / 29% / 88.71% / 31.18 / -35.49[/color:15rycvec]
Hannon, R 28 / 3 / 11% / -16.89 / 7 / 25% / -60.32% / -16.5 / 14.8[/color:15rycvec]
Nicholls, D 27 / 2 / 7% / -8 / 10 / 37% / -29.63% / -6.97 / 4.77[/color:15rycvec]
Stoute, Sir Michael 13 / 3 / 23% / 2.25 / 5 / 38% / 17.31% / 2.82 / -3.99[/color:15rycvec]2010
Trainer Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
Johnston, M 28 / 2 / 7% / -4 / 5 / 18% / -14.29% / -2.65 / 0.12[/color:15rycvec]
Hannon, R 27 / 9 / 33% / 9.5 / 14 / 52% / 35.19% / 10.73 / -13.15[/color:15rycvec]
Nicholls, D 23 / 3 / 13% / 42 / 5 / 22% / 182.61% / 46.88 / -51.4[/color:15rycvec]
Stoute, Sir Michael 16 / 1 / 6% / -10 / 4 / 25% / -62.50% / -9.78 / 8.75[/color:15rycvec]Dandy Nicholls success in 2010 un surprisingly came in the sprint handicaps mopping up three handicaps including the Stewards Cup and it’s supporting race the Stewards Stakes, it will take some doing to top that but as ever he should be a focus trainer in any event under a mile (though one success did come in the finale 9f handicap on the Saturday)
Mark Johnson for all his runners had a quiet time in 2010 but no doubt will continue to target the meeting where he has previously been very successful, winning the Lilly Langtry with 16/1 chance Eastern Aria would have been his highlight, the other winner being Sea Lord.
As you might expect with Richard Hannon he has very good success with his 2 year olds. Last year he achieved an abnormal 50% strike rate taking The Richmond Stakes, The Molecomb Stakes and The Vintage Stakes. The first named he has now won three years in a row as well as The Molecomb two years in a row as he continues to tighten his grip on the 2yo scene.
Sir Michael Stoute usually associated with quality not quantity often comes with a full horse box. Two races he does particularly well in the last 10 years are The Nassau Stakes and The Gordon Stakes. The latter having been won in 2008 with Conduit and 2009 with Harbinger.
Generally the meeting is very tough and not many come out with their head above water at SP. Channon (1-52) and Fahey (2-57) are examples of trainers in recent years who come with plenty of runners but have gone away with little to show.
Hannon Goodwood Age Stats
2010, 2009,2008
Age Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
2 14 / 7 / 50% / 12.83 / 9 / 64% / 91.64% / 13.67 / -15.1 /[/color:15rycvec]
3 7 / 1 / 14% / -5.33 / 3 / 43% / -76.14% / -5.31 / 4.98[/color:15rycvec]
4 3 / 0 / 0% / -3 / 1 / 33% / -100.00% / -3 / 2.85[/color:15rycvec]
5 1 / 1 / 100% / 7 / 1 / 100% / 700.00% / 7.38 / -7.77[/color:15rycvec]
6 2 / 0 / 0% / -2 / 0 / 0% / -100.00% / -2 / 1.9[/color:15rycvec]Age Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
2 12 / 3 / 25% / -0.89 / 4 / 33% / -7.42% / -0.5 / -0.4[/color:15rycvec]
3 10 / 0 / 0% / -10 / 2 / 20% / -100.00% / -10 / 9.5[/color:15rycvec]
4 2 / 0 / 0% / -2 / 1 / 50% / -100.00% / -2 / 1.9[/color:15rycvec]
5 3 / 0 / 0% / -3 / 0 / 0% / -100.00% / -3 / 2.85[/color:15rycvec]
6 1 / 0 / 0% / -1 / 0 / 0% / -100.00% / -1 / 0.95[/color:15rycvec]Age Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
2 18 / 2 / 11% / -7.67 / 5 / 28% / -42.61% / -7.3 / 6.04[/color:15rycvec]
3 9 / 2 / 22% / 2.25 / 3 / 33% / 25.00% / 2.71 / -3.57[/color:15rycvec]
4 5 / 0 / 0% / -5 / 1 / 20% / -100.00% / -5 / 4.75[/color:15rycvec]
5 2 / 0 / 0% / -2 / 0 / 0% / -100.00% / -2 / 1.9[/color:15rycvec]I should be back to add a bit more to this thread over the week.
[/size:15rycvec]Apologies the format isn’t very good.
3.40 Sky Bet Supporting Yorkshire Racing Summer Festival Handicap Cl4 5f
This race has lit my imagination today and there are two runners I am looking at. Both these horses have long been in mind and been sat in my notebook waiting for suitable opportunities.
The Nifty Fox
and
Arganil
.
The Nifty Fox was never in the race at Chester last time out from a wide draw and eased inside the final furlong can be forgiven that run. It’s his run at Ayr on the 25th May I would point you back to. That was his third run of the season, typically brought along slowly like all handicappers from the Tim Easterby yard he is back at a track today he boasts a 3/8 record, well drawn with plenty of pace around he has everything needed to get a 1 in the form column.
Arganil simply has the ability to beat this field as he likes. He is by far at his best running at 5f and the experiments over 6f lately have brought him nicely down the handicap. A real pointer to his contrast between 5f and 6f is to look back at to end of 09/10 when scraping home winning a conditions event at Lingfield just ahead of Aeroplane Indian Skipper and Sherjawy and failing twice in listed events at 6f by 4L, those runs were sandwiched between two listed wins at 5f when looking a completely different animal. Importantly on the turf I think he wants some give in the ground, 4th in the Temple Stakes on heavy ground in 2009 his turf wins have come on good to soft and soft going with 14 unplaced efforts on good or firmer. He has had a tendency to miss the break lately but his run at Beverley this year from a wide gate finishing fast from off the pace is enough encouragement to suggest today back at 5f on soft ground off 82 he could well take the beating if on his game.
1pt win
The Nifty Fox
6/1 Bet365, Skybet / 6th
2pt winArganil
10/1 Paddypower / 3rd
Rule 4 at time of Your Gifted removal 5.8 (9/2 – 5/1) THF and 9 (8/1) ArganilTime to jump out of The Nifty Fox boat I think, no excuses for him at first glance.
Arganil ran a hugely positive race and would be worth a go on a track with a stiff finish, Beverely, Hamilton etc
Sandown 2.45
Korabushka
has improved with every start to date and impressed last time out when winning cosily over 12f at Newbury. Today is her handicap debut and Jeremy Nosedas stats will go along way to giving you some confidence with this profile of horse.
First time in handicap, 3 runs, previous run a maiden
Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
82 / 22 / 26.83% / 2.43 / 42 / 51.22% / 2.96% / 5.14 / -11.57It gets better with a win last time out also.
40 /15 / 37.50% / 18.8 / 22 / 55.00% / 47.00% / 20.75 / -24.4
2011 so far
3 / 2 / 67% / 5.5 / 2 / 67% / 183.33% / 5.79 / -6.2
She handled softer ground ok at Doncaster on 2 runs back and although behind Unex Renoir who was subsequently behind Gottany O’s I feel she has improved on that start which was after a 2 month break and should continue to do so. Cheek pieces were on first time last time out and stay on today, further more Ryan Moore on board today boasts a strong record riding for Jeremy Noseda at 25% in the last year and Noseda holds a 35% strike rate at the track in the last 5 years and has had 3/9 winners in the last year.
All in all I can’t see many negatives to this horses chance and those ahead in the market look vulnerable enough.
2pt win
Korabushka
6/1 general
Nearly 10 seconds outside standard Sandown appears to be riding very testing and a lot of these struggled in the home straight.The long awaited King George VI clash is just two sleeps away for all us over excited horse fans and it looks an enthralling renewal.
It says a lot when a horse like Debussy once a group 1 conqueror of the six time group 1 winner Gio Ponti is here to make up the numbers and tow his stable mate Rewilding through the race. That of course was not so long ago and was frightfully impressive when winning on that day in the USA but seems a mere shell of what he was achieving last year for Johnny G.
But his presence should ensure there are no hiding places and baring incidents and injuries we should see the cream rise to the top.With ground set to be putting a cushion down for runners on the weekend there would appear no hiding place for Workforce. Casting memory back to last years running of the race will no doubt still give Workforces supporters nightmares, as more of a neutral I would more than certainly be prepared to forget that run ever existed. He is after all a Derby and Arc winner in the season just passed and his second place in the recent eclipse wouldn’t lead you down the path of thinking he has exactly lost it. If anything it should offer resounding encouragement, he will relish a return to 12f which is un deniably his optimum trip. Those who mopped up the prices before he was into favourite are on the right side of the coin.
St Nicholas Abbey could split a room for and against and I’d be in the later category. How this horse has been able to muscle his way into this race so short ante post was flabbergasting. He is still living off his reputation as a 2yo into his 4yo career and credit must go to the Spin Doctor Master O’Brien for that. I wouldn’t deny visually he was impressive when winning at Chester on his comeback trail but he beat Harris Tweed and Allied Powers on lightening quick Chester ground two notorious mud lovers and at best group 3 runners. A poor gathering of a field at Epsom for a group 1 was to follow and whilst Midday is a cracking filly she doesn’t match up to the quality of a Workforce and he’ll need to continue improving to win. But that is the hope that he is still improving, he has had set backs and has shown glimmers of out standing potential but he still has a bit more to prove yet and it’s arguable we have yet to see the very best of Workforce, so a big hurdle still to jump.
Rewilding appears to just keep getting better, dropped to 10f last time out he was able to master So You Think in a driving late finish at the Royal Meeting and many will argue he needs to be fresh but it’s not an angle I would particularly subscribe to. No doubt when prepared with time in mind he has performed to his highest ability but lets not forget this was a horse beaten on his debut and 2010 seasonal reappearance also. He was trained to win after 38 days on his UK debut and that was in between switching stables. Epsom can be a course that can put uncomfortable demands on a horse, his run in the Derby was always full of promise but he was put well in his place that day against Workforce, he has improved since that time and for me his best was winning the Sheema Classic so impressively at 12f and I believe that is his optimum trip. He will be a big player Saturday and offers a live danger to Workforce.
That leaves Nathaniel, supplemented at the last hour confidence in the Gosden camp is sure to be high. Mightily impressive winning under soft conditions at the Royal Meeting this is a runner who we have not seen the best of yet. Form that ties in closely with the mighty Frankel and Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach he isn’t a runner to be passed up lightly. The road is still a long one for this horse I feel though and he will need to continue his upward curve very steeply at this stage of his career if he is to rub shoulders with Workforce and Rewilding.
Workforce 6/4, Rewilding 3/1, St Nicholas Abbey 4/1, Nathaniel,13/2, Debussy 100/1
I’d expect Workforce to win and would be firmly in the Green White and Pink corner, Rewilding his biggest danger. St Nicholas Abbey would be a runner I would be against on this occasion and would lay under 3/1 on the exchanges and have already opposed lightly.
My memory doesn’t go back far enough to know when this was last won three times in a row but for Sir Michael Stoute this represents an excellent chance to get the hat trick.
I was quite disappointed Korabushka didn’t show up yesterday but so many in that race appeared to struggle up the home straight she’ll be one for another day.
4.30 Ascot
I’d be surprised if
Suits Me
couldn’t carry himself a long way to the finish line in this race. He was pulled in by Tinshu late on at Newbury but the pair came a long way clear of anything chasing them and this shorter run in at Ascot may just gain him the length he needs to keep her at bay. I can’t see where he’ll get much hustle for the lead, San Cassiano has been seen front running before but he is more likely to sit on the pace rather than press. Though 8 years of age Suits Me is as good as ever at the moment and he has conditions well in favour, he has won on bottomless ground at Ayr twice and whilst it isn’t quite that desperate at Ascot some will struggle with the ground but it won’t be this lad. Of those ahead of him in the market I think only Oceanway warrants to be and would be the threat and should be 9/2 fav in my opinion so looks about right at 4/1.
1pt E/W 10/1 general
UP -2pts
Not been on for a few days been pretty busy, just a little look at performance of the focus trainers from the post last week.
Trainer Runner Wins Places
Hannon 8 / 2 / 3
Johnston 7 / 1 / 3
Stoute 2 / 0 / 2
Nicholls 4 / 0 / 2Bets – Wins – WinStrike – SP_PL – Places – PlaceStrike – ROI – BF_Back – BF_Lay
21 / 3 / 14.29% / -2.5 /10 / 47.62% / -11.90% / -1.7 / -0.05Each way
Bets – Wins – Placed – SP Points – E/W Strike
21 / 3 / 10 / 5.23 / 47.62%4/1 above
Bets – Wins – Placed – SP Points – E/W Strike
16 / 2 / 7 / 7.18 / 43.75%Goodwood
3.45
Tanfeeth 1pt win 13/2 general
4.55
Smarty Socks 1pt win 10/1 bet365 / skybet – 3rd
Golden Desert 1pt win 18/1 VC and SJ (bog) – 4th -1pt
SP 25/1
Goodwood
2.15
Tropical Beat
could be worth chancing, clearly a little temperamental upped in trip today settling him will be the big fear but he has been better with the visor on the last twice and both times running encouragingly and those runs would not suggest he wouldn’t be worth a try at 10f. Trapped out wide last time out the three ahead of him all raced on the stands rail whilst he took steered a wide course outside of field until eventually ending further than half way across the course as the race panned out but still kept on well at the finish and running a creditable fourth. In the Britannia he was denied a clear run and made eye catching headway from rear, racing too far off the principles another 20 yards he would have passed chain lightning and with a clear run almost certainly would have beat that horse home. All in all he looks a little overpriced today.
1pt win
Tropical Beat
12/1 general
UP
2.45Kingsgate Native
can be a costly horse to follow, inconsistency seems to be his party piece these days but he has shown himself still fully capable this term with a big run in Temple Stakes. Hard to make excuses for last time out but he has been here twice, once in 2009 landing this race and in 2007 when second in a Molecomb Stakes to Fleeting Spirit. I simply believe he is the best horse in the field even allowing for the improving runners like Masamah. I’ve already highlighted Stoute as a trainer that actively targets this meeting and I feel today he will be right at his best and his best would be too good.
2pt win
Kingsgate Native
6/1 general
UP -2pts SP 4/1
Goodwood 4.50
A tough contest which brings together some very decent fillies.
Perfect Tribute
isn’t always easy to read, behind Immortal Verse in France last time out the subsequent Coronation Stakes winner she could be worth forgiving that outing, soft ground and her first go at a mile she pulled hard never really giving her self a chance. She is a filly that doesn’t lack speed and dropping back to 7f on good to firm ground could see her back to her best. I think she has improved since her 2yo days on the evidence of her impressive win at Lingfield in a group 3 beating Flambeau who had been impressive coming into that race winning a listed event. Dever Dream, Tropical Paradise and Pyrrha all had to watch on from behind as she left them trailing on that occasion and with a decent draw and back to favourable cons she could out run her big odds.
2pt win
Perfect Tribute
16/1 paddypower, 14/1 general
UP -2pts SP 12/1
Though I’m not really one for urban legends, it’s on this day you certainly can’t ignore the legend that is Dandy Nicholls. It’s said that on Stewards Cup day if you stand in front of a mirror and say Dandy Man five times, Dandy Nicholls will appear, only he won’t kill you with a hook, or a horse shoe, but he might point you on the road to Goodwood riches.
In the Steward Stakes
1pt each way, 25/1 Stan James, Paddypower, William Hill4th +5.25pts
SP 20/1
Catterick 3.00
Night Trade has already tightened up this morning but still looks worth a bet at the prices as I type
1pt win NIGHT TRADE 9/2 Ladbrokes, Betfred (BOG Firms) – Totesport
1st +5pts – SP 5/1
Brighton 3.30
A big race on the Brighton calendar and it could pay to side with
1pt each way ¼ odds 1,2,3 Dazeen@ 9/1 – Paddypower, Victor Chandler and Boylesports (Bog) – Stan James
Haydock
2.15
Auld Burns 1pt win 14/1 Stan James
Tinshu 1pt 12/1 general3.20
Jacqueline Quest 1pt win 12/1 general
Off Chance 1pt win 11/2 general
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