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This novice hurdle is shaping up to be one of the strongest of the season, an absolutely cracking lineup. Four Grade 1 winners dominate the betting, with some interesting contenders down further. Finian’s Oscar comes into this with relatively low mileage, and is deservedly the favourite. My worry about him is the ground, he could be left vulnerable to a more pacey finisher.
Let’s Dance is one such pacey finisher. With the mares allowance she is a very interesting contender, and drawing a line through Augusta Kate, she and Death Duty are hard to separate on form. This is a very tough filly, but she has had a long, hard season, culminating in a tough battle with Augusta Kate less than 2 weeks ago. If she can win here, I will be very impressed, but I think it could be one race too many for the filly.
Death Duty shouldn’t be discounted, as his best form is over this distance. However, like the favourite, the going is not ideal. He had a hard race in the Albert Bartlett, looking very tired when falling, but I think this horse could have a lot to offer over this distance. He’s had a nice lay off since Cheltenham, unlike some of the others prominent in the betting. Unowhatimeanharry showed that festival form should not be treated as gospel at Punchestown. So at 4/1, I’m hoping the apple of Gordon’s eye can get back to winning ways.
I thought Kemboy ran well enough at Cheltenham, and at 20’s, happy to give him a chance each way. I think those odds are pretty generous.
Definitely VtC, I’m just doubtful of how strong the Neptune form is this year, with no winners coming out of the race since, and a few very disappointing runs, e.g. Brelade.
20/1 is a nice price however, so good luck with him.
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