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One or two of the Sherwood horses look like they’ve needed a run recently?
Very true and Andreas has always been targeted for the Cheltenham festival,so it could be a pipe-opener,he doesn"t want it too soft either,the risks you take need to be accomodated in the price Kopwas!!
Well the clock is still ticking for Mikael,but what should have been the ideal opportunity in the PJ Moriarty,W mullins has left it to his stable companion Cousin Vinny, who is defineately getting the softly softly approach,i could see him in the RSA and 40 is a big price! I believe
Weapons Amnesty
is a proper horse and en route to the RSA, he can take this at 3/1,we shall see!
Serious question, not trying to score points or anything like that but I wonder how profitable it is to back so many horses in the one race?
I reckon you’ve got more horses covered in some races than I’d back in a whole month.Some of these looks very good bets, Tidal Bay at 260-1
for instance, but you must get a lot of non runners not to mention a fairly high percentage of loosers.I’m at the other end of the spectrum, I’m very selective with my bets, I’ve found over the years it’s the ones I don’t back rather than the ones I back that keeps me ahead of the game.
Occasionally, after a good winner I would fritter away hard earned cash on silly horses, the main reason I’ve joined this forum is that buy listing all my bets ahead of the start it makes me more disciplined, I don’t want to look an idiot backing a horse like An Accordion just because I knew Cappa Bleu wouldn’t win for instance!
Generally though it seems to be working, I was around 1000 points ahead on this years NH season when I joined, today’s 100 points win at 5/4 FOR BILL brought me up to + 1425 points, all bets posted on here
I tend to concentrate on the day to day stuff but have a small shortlist of horses to follow over the season and coming years, and I’ve found that previous stable tours can help tremendously (in the case of Ferdy Murphy’s initial huge positives for The Hollinwell two years ago).
I’m not a huge fan of ante-post as my fingers were burnt when backing Companero for the Welsh National only to find he was withdrawn.
However, as it is the holy grail I have had a couple of multiples and three or four singles at the festival, not at the best odds in all honesty, but enough for me. These are Tataniano at 14s, Go Native at 16s, Planet Of Sound at 12s and Quantitativeasing at 10s. I think the latter is a serious horse in the making and will have an excellent career.
Serious question, not trying to score points or anything like that but I wonder how profitable it is to back so many horses in the one race?
I reckon you’ve got more horses covered in some races than I’d back in a whole month.Cheeky B*****d!
No seriously Cheltenham,i play on prices,the bigger the better obviously.I have 3 horses for the Champion hurdle,that i have money on. Celestial Halo 23-10/1, Go Native, 10-8/1 and Medermit 16-14/1! The Arkle i have Mikael at 130-20/1, Somersby at 25-10/1, Tataniano at 21 and Mad Max at 90! The RSA i have Mikael at 34-7/1,Weird Al at 25-16/1, Weapons amnesty at 20-14/1 and Long run at 24-20/1. The Gold Cup i have Imperial Commander at 36-16/1, Albertas Run 130-50/1, Taranis at 34-30/1,Calgary Bay 380-100/1, Ryanair i have Voy Por Ustedes at 10/1, Massini"s Maguire at 70-25/1, Albertas run at 70-50/1, Forpadydeplasterer at 100-33/1, i have also backed him for the Gold Cup and Champion ch! I also Back/Lay in running regular! Backed Benmore Boy at 10"s in running yesterday, purely on the fact that he looked like Calgary Bay and is owned/trained by the same connections as him and Somersby! I hope "Boycey" was on him!! So Cheltenham, i do cover plenty of horses and yes some never make it to the track,but its all about enjoying the sport and losing as little as possible! 25yrs and i"m still doing it!I have seen them come and go in droves over that period! No discipline! simple as that! and Quantitativeasing at 10s. I think the latter is a serious horse in the making and will have an excellent career.
Couldn"t agree more Rich,he is one i will be backing on the day!
TAPK
its all about enjoying the sport and losing as little as possible! 25yrs and i"m still doing it!I have seen them come and go in droves over that period! No discipline! simple as that!CS Replied Agreed Discipline is
THE
most important factor in beating the bookies.
I got too confident of my ability to beat the book in the late 70s, early 80s and had my worst ever few years, and I had to rethink seriously when the betting tax started beating me hands down on my multipule betting.
Since the abolition of betting tax I haven’t had a losing season,but I have had my account closed by three bookies during that period. I now keep one account for most of my bets but place my 100% bankers / really big bets (200 points or more) spread round the betting shops in town.
Good luck with your AP bets, to me Tidal Bay still looks your best Festival shout…..we are obviously rating Irish/UK form diffenrently from each other.
"CheltenhamSpecialist wrote: …..we are obviously rating Irish/UK form diffenrently from each other.
Had things gone to plan with Mikael d"Haguenet,i would have rated him my banker of the meeting! Somersby is now! I rate both
Go Native
and
Weapons Amnesty
as my two Irish trained horses to go to war with! I just dont fancy Sizing Europe or Solwhit at all! A.P knows in his own mind,who he rates the higher out of Somersby and Captain Cee Bee, long term Somersby.Jumping ability,just Somersby, Speed, again Somersby, Cheltenham form, the same!And all the time there is a nagging doubt about the Captains injury problems and age?? If he could choose who he would ride in the Arkle,i dont think it would take long to decide myself!!
TAPK…as I said we are reading the form differently.
Sizing Europe and Solwhit are high on my list to be the fourth horse in my usual monster Festival ew yankee. Mikel too under other circumstances would be a leading contender.The three I’ve got so far (although nothing’s set in stone) are
Garde Champetre
Dunguib
DenmanThat goodness I don’t back Ante Post of I might have lost my house on my original banker….An Siorrac at 3-1 for The Foxhunters, I considered it the safest Festrival bet since Golden Cygnet, he’s a future Gold Cup horse if ever I’ve seen one…in my opinion, of course,… but sadly sidelined for the season
A.P knows in his own mind,……. If he could choose who he would ride in the Arkle,i dont think it would take long to decide myself!!
I’ve never seen AP on a Henry De Bromhead horse
Cheltenham,in all honesty,how much does it play on your mind that we have seen it all before with Sizing Europe and yet he fails to deliver,something physical bothers the horse, i"m sure, when the pressures applied! And applied it will be! Nothing other than the fact any horse can pick up an injury before a race bothers me about Somersby! Nothing!
It’s happened twice, in The Champion Hurdle when he tore a muscle at the second last and had the race in his pocket, and again next time out against Hardy Eustace when he clearly hadn’t recovered.
If I was 100% he’d be in my yankee list already, I’d say I’m 95% , the other 5% is probably Captain Cee Bee rather than in chink in Sizing’s makeup. In some ways I’d prefer to see him in The Champion that The Arkle, especially if Master Minded didn’t show, I have a feeling Osana will carry The Arkle field along at too fast a gallop, same as last timeI think Tataniano will go off like a scolded cat personally!
This will play into Somersbys strengths,as next year he will be Gold cup bound! Sizing Europe could be a 3 miler too you know,i personally think it would give him that more time to organise himself during his races!I always feel he is going a stride faster than he wants too!One of my main Ante-Post bets has gone down, Forpadydeplasterer is lame and misses the festival,a big player in my opinion and will be missed at the festival!The price you pay can be steep sometimes,if you want the price to pay!
At least Somersby goes straight there, and you have another couple of good bets to pull things together. That is still a scunner though mate. Dig into your pockets one more time, and pick another one. Whatever you win, just lump it on Aintree. These unfortunate pull outs are the reason i back quite a few more than i probably should.
Having woke up to the bad news that Forpadydeplasterer will miss the Champion chase this year,my first thought was to recoup the losses by backing Kalahari King for the same race at 12/1, i never bothered! I remember last years Arkle vividly,i fully expected "Pady" to win comfortably, Kalahari King had me flapping big time,he was closing him down all the way to the line,we were lucky to hold on and that race sticks in my mind.Today i certainly knew Kalahari King was the best horse in the race,but he surprised me in the manner of his victory,in what was an incredible time!I have backed him at 7/1 for the Champion Chase after kicking salt in my wounds! I have Twist Magic at 10/1 and Kalahari at 7/1 running for me now!
No seriously Cheltenham,i play on prices,the bigger the better obviously.I have 3 horses for the Champion hurdle,that i have money on. Celestial Halo 23-10/1, Go Native, 10-8/1 and Medermit 16-14/1! The Arkle i have Mikael at 130-20/1, Somersby at 25-10/1, Tataniano at 21 and Mad Max at 90! The RSA i have Mikael at 34-7/1,Weird Al at 25-16/1, Weapons amnesty at 20-14/1 and Long run at 24-20/1. The Gold Cup i have Imperial Commander at 36-16/1, Albertas Run 130-50/1, Taranis at 34-30/1,Calgary Bay 380-100/1, Ryanair i have Voy Por Ustedes at 10/1, Massini"s Maguire at 70-25/1, Albertas run at 70-50/1, Forpadydeplasterer at 100-33/1, i have also backed him for the Gold Cup and Champion ch! I also Back/Lay in running regular! Backed Benmore Boy at 10"s in running yesterday, purely on the fact that he looked like Calgary Bay and is owned/trained by the same connections as him and Somersby! I hope "Boycey" was on him!! 
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