December 24, 2011 at 14:04 #20598
Systems and systemites are rather looked upon as second class citizens within the betting fraternity and we have been put under the microscope during the recent polling for poster of the year, even cormack speaks in terms of "Ying and Yang" whilst pompete (possibly tongue in cheek) openly posts that I have not put up a single winner in 2011.
Foul, I cry.
Even the form aficionado will study in a systamatic way and I would think they also stake in a similar fashion sticking to their level stakes or bank percentages can be claimed as a systamatic approach.
Nothing wrong with that but those who live in glass houses should not throw stones.
So systamites, how about posting a system and its selections here and starting in the new year and proving to the non Ward 7 dwellers there is a method in our madness.
It should not be a competition between ourselves with no end of week/month/year prizes just the chance to show it is possible to enjoy the sport in our own way and hope we can also make a profit as well.
I suggest if any members are interested a start date of January 1st as a good day to begin.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 24, 2011 at 14:19 #383972
I will commence posting selections about my Racing Post 3 (RP 3)
as from January 1. It is a very simple system but has proved its value via my entries to Bob’s bet365 Saturday competition.
It does appear to perform better on a Saturday when compared to weekdays and of course the points credit is vastly different in Bob Rolfe’s competition than BOG or starting prices.
To it’s credit the system is at present 6th in the table and only 40 points behind the current leader. It is at present joint leader in the number of naps won table however the profit shows a different story being only £4.31 to the good.
These figures tell that selections will be front of the market horses most of the time and so there should not be those long dreaded losing runs.
I will post the rules closer to the time providing there is some interest in this suggested thread.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 24, 2011 at 17:13 #383983PompeteMember
- Total Posts 2391
Bill, of course I was messing about, and for the record am delighted that both yourself & Queenie were joint winners.
Good luck with the system, but if I may I would say don’t tinker with it and keep it going for at less 3 months. Many a good system has been put in the bin due to short term losses….December 25, 2011 at 17:17 #384076Nathan HughesParticipant
- Total Posts 25460
I might be a bit pushed for time early new year Bill to start a system but will try and get something for weekends only. I am however very interesting in this RP3 of yours as your results in bobs comp have been encouraging.
Happy Christmas to you and your good lady and all on ward 7.Member since March 2008December 25, 2011 at 21:01 #384081
A Christmas sample but not yet monitoring especially as I avoid Bank Holiday betting but this one is just for fun.
I will come back to you
when a little less pushed for time but please put up something for Saturdays which can be a system in itself.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 26, 2011 at 16:23 #384186
Always the worst message that can be posted on the boards are those of winners that were never put up.
I said I dislike betting on Bank Holidays, a further dislike is multiple selections from just the one system and this is what happend.
Last evening this system/method found four selections.
Fontwell was said to be heavy going and I was under time pressure and so for a little bit of fun I chose to post and bet just the one from the priciple meeting, Kempton and ignore the remainder.
Happily Grand Crus won at 6/5 but so did the other three.
Fontwell 2.40 Whatshallwedo 5/6
Huntingdon 2.25 Laneguy 10/3
Mkt Rasen 2.45 O crotaigh 4/1
What a lovely acca. that would have been but once again it proves the simple 3 click (KISS) system can and will work for us all.
My problem is I have not found the best way to stake or bet the selections and this will have to be the choice of anyone who chooses to play the system.
I worry a little that it will not produce in the same way it has for Bob’s competition because the scoring is vastly different and a staking plan of some sort will be required.
Expectation will be a SR 35% with BOG price 6/4 if I ignore today’s non selected winners.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 26, 2011 at 17:01 #384193
Although perhaps far from the finished package
is much about the easiest way to find the best horse in a race from a 3 click system as is possible to get.
The selection will be regarded as the best prospect at one given meeting.
It will also be thought of as the best rated choice of the race.
Aspects covering recent form, trainer form, course and going will be looked at as well as other relevant considerations.
All this and it will only take a few minutes to to cover a whole day of racing.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 26, 2011 at 19:09 #384236
There is not a selection for tomorrow – Tuesday.
Today there easily could have been four but I shall only be looking for one, when there are more than one I shall selection the one either from the principle meeting or from the better class of race.
call it a system or call it a method as you will.
3 clicks of the mouse and the job is done.
Working from the Racing Post site the evening before suits me.
Call up all the race cards for each meeting one at a time and run through each race until Spotlight’s nap is found. This is the one and only horse I am interested at this meeting.
Check RPR (Racing Post Ratings) for the same race and if the same horse is selected by RPR then I am still interested.
Check Postdata to see if the same horse is made the selection for the race.
Simple as that.
I want it napped by an expert, I want it to be the best rated (by RPR) and last of all I want Postdata to cover all the angles for me.
Only if all 3 choose the same horse will I go to find the best BOG price available.
Chepstow is predicted as Heavy Going so I shall pass, as it happens there is not a selection.
Kempton 2.05 Whoops A Daisy is napped by Spotlight, RPR goes for Violin Davis and Postdata chooses Whoops a Daisy. 2 from 3 and I let it pass.
Southwell 1.15 Soopacal is napped by Spotlight but both RPR and Postdata pick Desert Icon. Again I pass on the race.
Wetherby 3.25 Heather Glen is the one napped and also chosen by RPR but Postdata picks Moon Melody.
This is the system/method I call
and will post the selections starting in the New Year.
With regard to Bob Rolf’s Saturday Competition
forms the basis of my selection process and because I am not betting these selections I can and do relax the rules, after all I have to find 4 selections plus reserves and it is not always possible to find 5/6/7 horses that meet
‘s selection criteria and without a set process may look for an un-napped Spotlight selection backed up with both RPR and Postdata, if this is not possible it may come down to 2 from 3 but I limit the race field size.
For the more serious business of betting I will only post up those horses which adhere to the Spotlight Nap and chosen by both RPR and Postdata.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 27, 2011 at 19:21 #384472
Of course you can play
anyway you want, if you want but it will be my intention to post one selection a day if available and that is MY choice. The reason being with just one a day once a staking plan is sorted it is easier (for me) to control.
Looking at the racing for Wednesday there are 3 possibles: –
Catterick 2.50 Whatshallwedo but at 8/11 available is not for me.
Lingfield 1.10 Sorm Runner, small field available at 13/8 and being a class 6 event would only be my choice if nothing else available.
small enough field to be of interest with 11 declared and a class 3 race.
2nd – Lost
Available at 4/1 with Boyle Sports is my choice.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 28, 2011 at 19:31 #384661
for Thursday –
Although I tend to NOT look at Class 6 races STORM RUNNER was a winner for
at Lingfield @ 15/8.
As said I only dip down into Class 6 races if and when I cannot find a selection at a higher grade.
Thursday offers NO outright selection but there are points of interest: –
Kempton 3.50 Trip Switch has been napped, RPR also makes it the number one choice but Postdata goes for Daniel Thomas, it is therefore a non selection but Postadata has identical tick points as Trip Switch –
When I am on a "fishing expedition" for selections I will look for a selection where all three agree but NOT napped. I tend to consider races of smaller fields only and did find two with possibilities: –
Doncaster 12.40 Habbie Simpson
Kelso 1.00 Into Wain Won 10/11
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 29, 2011 at 19:28 #384842
Well there was some interesting results from yesterday’s selections, Winners at 5/4 & 10/11 and a second and perhaps tonights choices also throw up a conundrum picking 3 to follow or not!
Taunton 12.40 Black Thunder RP FcSp 11/8f
Lingfield 1.00 Scarlet Rocks RP FcSp 2/1f
Haydock 3.40 Douglas Julian 3/1 P Power
would be my pick depending on what BOG price becomes available, the Lingfield race is Class 6 and Haydock is said to be Heavy Going.
However there will not be many days when there are 3 possible selections and it could be worth a speculative Trixie.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 30, 2011 at 19:57 #385007
The final posting here under this thread title and will start the New Year as per
with stakes, profit & loss.
Only one under consideration for tomorrow: –
Warwick 12.35 TERRA BLEU
But, with uncertain ground conditions and if the early price of 4/5 is an indication of what will be available I shall pass on this one.
Happy New Year to you All.
Billy's Outback ShackDecember 31, 2011 at 10:23 #385074KINGFISHERMember
- Total Posts 1508
Billion are you a REAL human? Or are you one of these ‘Bot’ things that seem to be cropping up in conversation,i know Nathan frequents the ‘System’ side of the forum but i suspect he’s just looking for ‘Botty’! Perhaps we are all ‘Bots’ on here!December 31, 2011 at 10:49 #385086
Billion are you a REAL human? Or are you one of these ‘Bot’ things that seem to be cropping up in conversation,i know Nathan frequents the ‘System’ side of the forum but i suspect he’s just looking for ‘Botty’! Perhaps we are all ‘Bots’ on here!
Am I a real human?
the best person to ask is MrsB and she claims at 107 I am
SUPER HUMAN !
Billy's Outback Shack
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