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Yep!! he definitly looks like he needs 1m2f
2 out of 10 for that analysis and that’s on a good day
Again, I cant see past CC.
I backed him in the 2000 (Eng/Ire) and SJP, quite heavily and it payed.
RVW can only win by wearing CC down, not turn of foot or speed IMO.
But then CC never looks like stopping in his last 3 runs over 1 mile so…
RVW’s last run was nothing sort of shocking, but he won this race last year well and got within 1L of STS.
CC still for me though, but if RVW is in form, I fancy a scrap to the line.
- Total Posts 17716
If Rip Van Winkle is capable of running (even close) to last year’s form he should win this quite comfortably. However, that’s far from certain and whilst I think the current crop of three-year-old milers is pretty decent, Canford Cliffs’ ability to travel and quicken might not be enough to see off
Premio Loco
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A six-year-old he may be, but he’s lightly raced, progressive, travels strongly and is by no means short of pace. In many ways he’s a very similar horse to Canford Cliffs, but his age and experience may just count in his favour.
He’s worth chancing against an albeit more talented second-favourite.
Again, I cant see past CC.
I backed him in the 2000 (Eng/Ire) and SJP, quite heavily and it payed.
RVW can only win by wearing CC down, not turn of foot or speed IMO.
But then CC never looks like stopping in his last 3 runs over 1 mile so…
RVW’s last run was nothing sort of shocking, but he won this race last year well and got within 1L of STS.
CC still for me though, but if RVW is in form, I fancy a scrap to the line.
CC has never faced anything in Rip’s class so odds-on quotes are ridiculous. I’m hoping RVW comes on for his second run like Fame did.
How many 3-Y-Olds have won listed or group races open to older horses this year?
That’s the clue to the race, I can only find two but surely there must be more than that otherwise…..forget the 3-Y-Olds in this race
I’m taking Rip Van Winkle to find sufficient improvement after an 8 length beating by one of the best milers ever seen, to land this one again.
There’s no reason why Beethoven shouldn’t improve enough to be much closer to CC if the selection bombs!
Mac Love has been laid out for this. He loves good/firm or quicker, likes the course, and could easily run in to a place. He bizarrely seems better than ever before at the ripe old age of nine, and his beating Stotsfold LTO looks pretty impressive after the vanquished’s exploits this season. Would Stotsfold be available at anything like 80/1 (exch) if he was running in this race? Extremely doubtful.
The 3yo’s also seem to have a bit to prove, and so does form stand-out Rip Van Winkle after flopping alarmingly LTO.
Mac Love win – 2pts.
Mac Love place – 4pts.
Mac Love / Ripper RFC – 1pt.Hmmmmmm.
Difficult race to weigh up.
I backed CC for the 2000 Guineas at 16/1 (win only)
Got it back at Royal Ascot.
Yet, if RVW is capable of last year’s race form, he should be favourite, let alone 5/2. However, it seems odds-on he’ll be well below last season’s form. He didn’t just need the Ascot run, he really needed it. He’s "come on a lot" since then, but can’t see him finding enough. If Ladbrokes are shortest tomorrow morning, then I’ll back him (Mike Dillon knows the ones in A1 condition). But if Ladbrokes are longest price, don’t touch him with the proverbial.Can see the arguement for making a slow pace for Canford Cliffs to pull / be too free. But RVW needs a strongly run race to bring his stamina in to play at a mile. Though he needs to be fit for that sort of performance. It’s possible he’s going to need 10 furlongs this year. He’s also not that big, will he train on?
Those are probably the reasons CC is so ludicrously short.
There are other horses in the race.
Premio Loco is improving and stays 1m really well. has a turn of foot (like CC), consistent, in form, from an in form yard. His form is a little behind Canford Cliffs best, but a little improvement or Hughsie’s mount running a touch below; and the Loco becomes an unstoppable train.At 12/1 on the exchanges Premio Loco is a good win bet. I make him a fair 6/1. Is also an excellant each way steal at around 9/1.
There’s another with a squeak too.
Dream Eater started favourite to beat Premio Loco last time. Andrew Balding’s grey is not so consistent, but does travel well. Not fully convinced he truly stays a mile. But at 22/1 each way it’s worth finding out (28/1 on betfair for the win only).With RVW being so impossible to price, I’ve put him in at the bookies price minus a mark up.
My 100% book:
Canford Cliffs 20/21, Rip Van Winkle 11/4,Premio Loco 6/1, Dream Eater 16/1
, Beethoven 66/1, Mac Love 100/1, Beacon Lodge 200/1, Encompassing longer than 2000/1.
With an odds-on favourite, 2nd favourite who’s probably not fit, a few no hopers and an 8 runner race. This is one of THE BEST each way races of the year.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Don’t get it Ginge???? Rip Van Winkle is unfit so you according to your ficticous book make Canford Cliffs a better price than any bookmaker in the country? That simply doesn’t make sense.
Rip Van Winkle will come on for the run is just about what you can expect from AOB…..his rule of thumb when he does speak is make any excuses before the race and not after……..He’s boxing clever IMO. If he can run Canford Clifs close the horse gets aplus no matter what as everyone will assume he wasn’t 100%. The race will tell all but it’s hardly gospel as you are making out.
Furthermore what on earth makes you think Rip Van Winkle may need 1m2f….did you miss the Sussex last season or just fail to see how much at home the horse was over 1m?
Keeping Rip Van Winkle right isn’t easy by all accounts so the last think AOB would want is an uneccessary prep race for a horse with bad feet IMVHO……So why run him here against a horse like Canford Cliffs instead of much more valuable Juddmonte International Stakes in a fortninghts time?
His other 2 entries are over 1m back at Goodwood and then at Ascot……I think it’s very clear the horse is a miler plain and simple and that’s how AOB sees him.
Weighing these tow up isn’t eay but one things for certain: They are a mile ahead of the others and will fill the first two places unless something is seriously wrong with Rip Van Winkle.
Unless you believe both Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle can’t win then your best race of the season to back EW makes no sense to me……….8/1 with Corals about P Loco pays 1/2 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd…. back another one and then he must also be placed or your ass is grass
Would love to see what your staking plan is and take my word for it….you better hope one of Rip Van Winkle’s legs fall off if you expect to make a profit.
ficticous book
After comments like that Fist, do you really think I am going to bother to explain?
If you’d come to Goodwood I could show you my "ficticous book".
Don’t worry about it Fist, you would not recognise value if it…..
Value Is EverythingFist isn’t it you that claimed last year that Rip Van Winkle was a 6f horse?
Fist is generally a good judge,unfortunately he is a compulsive gambler who lost the roof on his house betting Canford cliffs,he now lives in a wooden hut on a beach in "Fukit" in Thailand,its actually pronounced "Pooohkay"! No Ian it twas i who still maintains The Rip Meister should have at least ran once in a Group 1 sprint over 6f!
With an odds-on favourite, 2nd favourite who’s probably not fit, a few no hopers and an 8 runner race. This is one of THE BEST each way races of the year.
Only 7 runners now
Value Is EverythingFist isn’t it you that claimed last year that Rip Van Winkle was a 6f horse?
Fist is generally a good judge,unfortunately he is a compulsive gambler who lost the roof on his house betting Canford cliffs,he now lives in a wooden hut on a beach in "Fukit" in Thailand,its actually pronounced "Pooohkay"! No Ian it twas i who still maintains The Rip Meister should have at least ran once in a Group 1 sprint over 6f!
I do apologise to Mr Fist.
You omitted to mention, Fist, that RVW also has an entry in the Irish Champion. So after today 2 entries at a mile and 2 entries in more prestigious/valuable 1m2f races.
Last year’s Sussex looks weaker than this year’s? We know Paco Boy didn’t act on the track so it’s best not to read that relative form literally. Last year’s heat lacked a 3yo with the Group 1 mile profile of CC.
Mick Kinane’s piece in the Post yesterday was interesting. He wasn’t directly comparing CC with Rock of Gibraltar but the implication was there. I see comparison in the way the two horses cruise up on the bridle then it’s over in a second as the jockey opens up another gear.
For sure it’s tricky to place much store in what AOB says. I’ve seen him say before a horse will improve for the race then win. He says the same of RVW and Beethoven.
Taken at face value you might conclude Coolmore have waved the white flag over CC. Just run horses that need the race in prep for some other target behind Hannon’s colt.
The presence of Encompassing (again) as pacemaker might be some evidence in the other direction. If you’re essentially riding work in public and picking up a bit of place money you don’t need a pacemaker.
Quite how team AOB are seeing the race determines how you read it. How could you get CC beat here if that is your aim. Richard Hughes interviewed on RP website seemed rather worried about, from his draw, potentially suffering traffic problems getting round Encompassing and Beethoven. I can see that because if you can make CC have to switch out of a pocket at the right moment you could get it unbalanced too.
In todays Post Hannon is quoted as saying he doesn’t want a muddling pace as a strong one will help CC settle. Hold on I thought it did just settle now anyhow?.
I think both RVW and Beethoven are 1m2f horses. So they need a strong pace over a mile. I think the only way to ‘have’ CC is to stretch it, forge a blistering pace, in the hope you can blunt it’s gears.
A crawl very early in the hope CC might not settle then pedal to the metal, lay it right down to the 3yo. Box it in round the 2f marker, make it switch for a run and try to unbalance it and by this time one of your more stamina laden 3 has first run on Hughes’s mount. If, that is, team AOB are bothered.
Even that might not work, even if you got all the components right. CC might have too much class and too much speed regardless.
Premio Loco is not without hope. You don’t stump up the £19.5K for nothing. Clearly acts on the track and is progressive. I don’t think the Summer Mile reads as a weak Group 2. You just wonder if it’s progressive enough at 6yo to step up to win a Group 1 against the Champion 3yo miler elect.
Dream Eater is now a miler. And one who needs a strong pace. The pacemaker in the Summer Mile didn’t really do his job and a muddling pace ensued which I believe played to Premio Loco’s strengths. Off a strong pace I could see that form reversed.
I don’t historically like a 1m2f 3yo by the time of the Sussex. But I suppose O’Brien acheived that last year with RVW. Comparing the 2 reappearances in the SJP and the Queen Anne and the profiles generally the difference in the price between RVW and Beethoven is an error.
My play is to neither back nor lay CC outright but to attempt the forecast.
I’ll split stake between Dream Eater and Beethoven to fill the place.
It was a formula that worked very well for me in the summer when Rock of Gibraltar conquered all comers like Canford Cliffs can.
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