- This topic has 24 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
This is an attempt at producing a Spotlight type of analysis, before anyone else, Racing Post etc. Just to see if I can do it.
3:45 Goodwood 7f Group 3 (Good-soft)
Appalachian Trail: Being poorly drawn should not be such a disadvantage for a hold up horse who is best in strongly run races. Won a listed race and third to Major Cadeaux, both at Haydock. Excuses since but showed little real encouragement last time. Would not be inconvenienced by soft ground.
Beaver Patrol: Genuine sort, better than ever at age of six this year but will need career best here to win, second in Wokingham under 9-2. Good placed effort in Hungerford Stakes: beaten 4 ½ lengths by Paco Boy. The easier 7f than Newbury should suit if ground conditions do not place too much emphasis on stamina.
Duff: Dip-backed Irish gelding. Got the run of the race at Cork last time (1m good-soft), equally effective at 7f and has run well in Britain before: won at York last season. Front runner but it is possible will be taken on by Welsh Emporer.
Excusez Moi: Frustrating sort, losing run stretches back to 2006 Great St. Wilfred (6f soft). 50/1, good 4th in Totesport International at Ascot (7f good-firm) penultimate start but since ran poorly in Hungerford, played up going to start. Has refused to enter stalls, inconsistent and looks temperamental these days. Probably not good enough either.
Express wish: Well backed disappointing favourite in 6f handicap at Glorious Goodwood. Visored and tongue tied for first time there, not so this time. Lightly raced, evidently thought capable of better but needs to be in this company. Needs to settle to get today’s new trip and poorly drawn.
Royal Vintage: Last seen in March when 2nd in UAE Derby in Dubai (1m1f on dirt). Travelled well there and has won at 7f on soft in his native South Africa. Entries in both QEII and Champion stakes. Thought by trainer potentially better on turf. Races prominently or tracks pace.
Welsh Emperor: Admirable nine year old. Disappointed despite almost ideal conditions (loves soft ground) in Hungerford, winner and 2nd previous years. Haydock winner on heavy but opposition not up to this standard. With Duff in the field may not get his own way up front.
Hitchens: Three year old who looked capable of better when winning on reappearance at Windsor, 6f on good-firm. Below form since in Stewards Cup and 7f Totesport International (should stay). Best form on a sound surface but shown promise over inadequate 5f on good-soft. Held up / tracks pace.
Sharp Nephew: Unraced since got up last strides in listed mile all-weather race on reappearance in early April. That race was slowly run and could still be equally effective at today’s trip. Lightly raced and capable of improvement. However, only race lost was also only start on a soft surface when joint favourite for Royal Lodge.
Betting Forecast (to 117.2%):
9/4 Duff 11/4 Royal Vintage 7 Beaver Patrol 8 Hitchens 17/2 Sharp Nephew 10 Appalachian Trail 11 Welsh Emperor 15 Express Wish 50 Excusez MoiConclusion:
Preference goes to Duff despite worries over being taken on by fellow front runner Welsh Emperor. Royal Vintage may be capable of improvement but has too many question marks fitness, shorter trip and different surface. 3 year olds Sharp Nephew and Hitchens (each way alternative) may have too much improvement to make.What do you think?
Comments welcome.Mark
Value Is EverythingHad a look at this race last night, Mark.
I’m at work at the moment so can’t remember exactly the prices in my ‘book’. Anyway, I do things a little different. I effectively price up to 85% and just see what’s available at my prices.
Ignoring all that, I found Royal Vintage very difficult to price-up. Fairly long absence (though good record when fresh) and difficultly interpreting NAS form.
Appalachian Trail I’d noted from earlier in the season when winning at Haydock and then the run next time out was excellent behind Major Cadeaux. However, I thought he was a bit disappointing at Newmarket then the stinker last time at Pontefract has got alarm bells ringing. I think you’ve got him fairly priced.
Beaver Patrol’s run last time out was really good, though the majority of that one’s races have been over 6F. I may be tempted into backing that one if others are more favoured.
Duff’s win last time out was good, the horse has shown form in the UK in this class before and can be expected to improve from the win at the Curragh.
I’ve no doubt that others will point to your prices and shriek ‘what, you think horse x should be ….’; ‘I’d like to see you lay that price’, etc,etc.
I reckon you’ve done a very good job and putting your opinions in the public domain is courageous – well done!
Ginge I’ve priced this race up as follows :
11/4 Duff
7/2 Royal Vintage
9/2 Apalachian Trail
13/2 Beaver Patrol
8/1 Sharp Nephew
12/1 Welsh Emperor
14/1 Hitchens
18/1 Express Wish
40/1 Excuse Moi113.6%
Its a trappy little race. Duff is doubtful now unfortunately as I thought he’d have a decent chance here.
Royal Vintage is a difficult one to asses. He has the best form but none of it is in the UK and 7f at Goodwood may be on the sharp side for him. He’s entered up in the QE11 and the Champion Stakes so he’s clearly thought of as being better than these. HE may be worth taking on though under the circumstances.
Apalachia Trail is a horse I have respect for. He’s usually held up though and Goodwood can be difficult for such a horse who’s best form is on galloping tracks.
Welsh Emperor will take them along but unless the ground gets very soft I can’t see him winning.
Beaver Patrol is the one I’d side with. He’s a horse that can race prominantly, will be Ok on the ground and whilst he’s done almost all of his racing at six furlongs he ran well behind Paco Boy when stepping up to 7f last time out. Goodwood’s 7f is sharpish if he can sit handy and kick on he should last home Ok and may just get first run and pinch the race.
Sharp Nephew is lightly raced and would be a horse I’d consider a danger. The others I don’t really fancy.
Bigger than 13/2 I’d back Beaver Patrol but given Duff’s likely withdrawl I can’t see the horse being anything like that price.
Winner will come from Beaver Patrol, Apalachian Trail and Sharp Nephew IMO. Choosing between them isn’t easy.
3:45 Goodwood 7f Group 3 (Good-soft)
Appalachian Trail: Being poorly drawn should not be such a disadvantage for a hold up horse who is best in strongly run races. Won a listed race and third to Major Cadeaux, both at Haydock. Excuses since but showed little real encouragement last time. Would not be inconvenienced by soft ground.
Beaver Patrol: Genuine sort, better than ever at age of six this year but will need career best here to win, second in Wokingham under 9-2. Good placed effort in Hungerford Stakes: beaten 4 ½ lengths by Paco Boy. The easier 7f than Newbury should suit if ground conditions do not place too much emphasis on stamina.
Duff: Dip-backed Irish gelding. Got the run of the race at Cork last time (1m good-soft), equally effective at 7f and has run well in Britain before: won at York last season. Front runner but it is possible will be taken on by Welsh Emporer.
Excusez Moi: Frustrating sort, losing run stretches back to 2006 Great St. Wilfred (6f soft). 50/1, good 4th in Totesport International at Ascot (7f good-firm) penultimate start but since ran poorly in Hungerford, played up going to start. Has refused to enter stalls, inconsistent and looks temperamental these days. Probably not good enough either.
Express wish: Well backed disappointing favourite in 6f handicap at Glorious Goodwood. Visored and tongue tied for first time there, not so this time. Lightly raced, evidently thought capable of better but needs to be in this company. Needs to settle to get today’s new trip and poorly drawn.
Royal Vintage: Last seen in March when 2nd in UAE Derby in Dubai (1m1f on dirt). Travelled well there and has won at 7f on soft in his native South Africa. Entries in both QEII and Champion stakes. Thought by trainer potentially better on turf. Races prominently or tracks pace.
Welsh Emperor: Admirable nine year old. Disappointed despite almost ideal conditions (loves soft ground) in Hungerford, winner and 2nd previous years. Haydock winner on heavy but opposition not up to this standard. With Duff in the field may not get his own way up front.
Hitchens: Three year old who looked capable of better when winning on reappearance at Windsor, 6f on good-firm. Below form since in Stewards Cup and 7f Totesport International (should stay). Best form on a sound surface but shown promise over inadequate 5f on good-soft. Held up / tracks pace.
Sharp Nephew: Unraced since got up last strides in listed mile all-weather race on reappearance in early April. That race was slowly run and could still be equally effective at today’s trip. Lightly raced and capable of improvement. However, only race lost was also only start on a soft surface when joint favourite for Royal Lodge.
Betting Forecast (to 117.8%):
9/4 Duff 11/4 Royal Vintage 7 Beaver Patrol 8 Hitchens 17/2 Sharp Nephew 10 Appalachian Trail 11 Welsh Emperor 15 Express Wish 50 Excusez MoiConclusion:
Preference goes to Duff despite worries over being taken on by fellow front runner Welsh Emperor. Royal Vintage may be capable of improvement but has too many question marks fitness, shorter trip and different surface. 3 year olds Sharp Nephew and Hitchens (each way alternative) may have too much improvement to make.[b:27wqo8ky]If as expected, Duff is a non-runner, this will change the race drastically. With Welsh Emperor likely to get a soft lead and those held up unlikely to find the turn of foot on a soft surface. I’d expect Welsh Emperor to make it followed by Royal Vintage, Beaver Patrol and Hichens tracking the pace / mid div, and Excusez Moi (if in the mood) next, with Express Wish and Appalachian Trail bringing up the rear. Of course connections of something might do something different.
Revised betting for good-soft with soft places: 116.6%
13/8 Royal Vintage 9/2 Beaver Patrol 6 Welsh Emperor, 13/2 Hichens 7 Sharp Nephew 8 Appalachian Trail 14 Express Wish 40 Excusez MoiMy selection is now between Royal Vintage and Welsh Emperor due to the pace angle. Will have to go with the former despite the question marks.
Mark[/b:27wqo8ky]
Value Is EverythingROF,
This is not how I work generally, the above betting is what I think the betting will be, not what I think it should be or the prices I am looking to beat.
For betting purposes my prices to beat are (for going between good-soft and soft) Betting to 100%
13/8 Royal Vintage 6/1 Beaver Patrol 15/2 Welsh Emperor 8/1 Hichens 10/1 Appalachian Trail, Sharp Nephew 18/1 Express Wish 80/1 Excusez Moi
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Although it looks a prep race for the QE11, and I’ve no idea what constitutes soft ground at Greyville, Royal Vintage is streets in front of these and I’d doubt he’ll go off much above evens.
Evens? I find it hard enough to assess local horses let alone some unknown quantity who has been running at Nad Al Sheba Absolutely. There can be no way to judge his form and I am sure there is no way he will he start favourite never mind evens.
He could be anything but many eyes will have been cast upon him already and I don’t hear any dogs barking.
I doubt if likely favourite Appalachian Trail will win on the ground but has the best overall form, Sharp Newphew got slaughtered the last time he ran on g/s so it doean’t leave much to beat.
Welsh Emperor will be very much at home on this surface and an EW interest if he is 5’s or better may be the best option.
- Total Posts 17716
Fist
Aren’t you saying you don’t understand – so it can’t be?
RP forecast has him at 11/8.Can’t believe the favourite is so short or Beaver Patrol is so big (8/1 on Betfair).
11/8 fav – First run in UK, on ground softer than ideal, over a trip shorter than than he usually runs, on a sharp and tricky track like Goodwood, with a jockey not used to Goodwood – LAY, LAY LAY!!!!!
10mm of rain over night changes the whole complexion of the race for me. Ground is now right for Welsh Emperor who should also get a soft lead. Hitchens out now.
15/8 Royal Vintage
4 Welsh Emperor
5 Apalachian Trail
7 Beaver Patrol
8 Sharp Nephew
33 Express Wish
50 Excuse Moito 100%.
I’ve read on here before as to the supposed benefits of creating your own ’tissue’ to 100% and its benefits in relation to assessment of ‘value’.
Couple of questions:
Is the tissue price you create an entirely subjective view of the chance of a horse and thus converted from percentage chance into a betting odds?
What is the formula for convertage percentage chance of winning into a betting odds?
Cheers for any replies.
Anzum,
First figure + second figure = resultant figure
second figure ‘/, resultant figure = decimal
decimal x 100 = percentage.
e.g.
4/1 =
4 + 1 = 5
1 ‘/, 5 = 0.20
0.20 x 100 = 20%
4/1 = 20%Mark
Value Is EverythingI know it looks slight perplexing that Royal Vintage has many crosses against his name, but the fact of the matter is, he is the only horse being touted for Group 1 class with entries in the Champion Stakes and QEII – and his trainer has enormous wraps for him.
Plus, he has won on soft going locally (in Group 2 company) and considering he was very immature in Dubai, will have come on in droves coming into this race.
Race is a nap for Royal Vintage and am fine about taking Hills’ 6/4.
Cheers Mark, Ive posted in the main forum asking about the value of tissue pricing in terms of boosting profit as to not divert from this thread’s topic.
Sharp Nephew out as well now.
I backed Express Wish at big prices last night (buttons on at 36-40, and with deductions I’m effectively on at 31.) and it’s now down to 16/17, so I may lay off a fair bit of my stake as I don’t think it can win.
Also on Beaver Patrol at 8.4.
Not a particularly strong looking event and Royal Vintage looks very skinny for a horse that hasn’t run since March. Welsh Emperor’s last effort was disappointing so Appalachian Trail & Beaver Patrol look better value.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.