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Quote: from SirHarryLewis on 4:29 pm on Mar. 11, 2006[br]Fair dues to you Jackane.  Tough industry to break I imagine.  I can imagine that I would disagree hugely with a lot of things you say….but then again, thats why it would be worth buying the paper.
However, I’d be curious to know what our Irish members think of the O’Grady horse
Well the dogs in the street over here know that O’Grady really rates this horse and has for some time.  This is part of the reason for compressed prices.  He’s good but I wonder if he lacks that instant acceleration often needed for this.<br>
The thing is tho Eddie knows what it takes to win the supreme hence Back In Front 3 years ago. I wasnt exactly jumpin for joy seein him have a steady gallop last sunday which he seemed to get caught for toe for a second which wud be very strange as O Grady was contemplatin keepin him for the bumper instead earlier in the year. If O’ Muircheartaigh doesnt run ill have to turn to Sweet Wake because i dont see much else in the race to be honest
Sal, 3 of the 5 NH-bred winners – Brave Inca, Like A Butterfly and Hors La Loi. They have all gone on to be fantastic horses – near legends if you will. This is why i’m not discounting O’Muircheartaigh at all. I believe that he can go on to be a fantastic hurdler and a fantastic horse. But I see nothing else in the race NH-bred which has shown the kind of potential as O’Muircheartaigh. Back In Front won the Supreme Nov and went on to win a Bula Hurdle. Tourist Attraction was the other – although I think he only had the one run after he won at Chelts.
This race will be won by a flat-bred or O’Muircheartaigh – hence my EW interest in Crow Wood, and continued persistance of people backing Sweet Wake, and O’Muircheartaigh if the ground is soft!!
Lookign at the important features of this race since, and including, 1996 a key trait of the event has been that when the Irish come over with one that is really strongly fancied it tends to invariably run extremely well. We do know that they are now able to hold onto a greater proportion of their best stock and this, allied with the fact that when they have a live one word soon gets around, perhaps explains why their fancied runners have enjoyed such success.
On the seven occasions since 1996 that they have provided the favourite they’ve won three, recording a 60.7% profit on turnover. Of the other four they’ve had a 2nd, a 3rd and the remaining two failed to finish.
Sweet Wake has obvious class, has appeared to relish jumping and looks a fairly obvious candidate as the one they have to beat.
(Edited by cormack15 at 10:32 am on Mar. 12, 2006)
I cant undersand anyone backing sweet wake at the prices at the moment i guarantee when that field is lined up they’l look at there dockets and wonder what the hell they were doing. I believe there is nothing at all to say that if you swithched some of the other horses in the supremes with S.W. in its two races that they would’nt have looked just as impressive. STOP THIS MADNESS. <br>I havent made my mind up but looking at senorita rumba does anyone have a view.Will she even run?
Irrespective of if he wins, I think your entirely right. Its the word at home that obviously makes him this price but I would be surprised if many pros are backing him.
I cant work out whether the Irish or British form is best at the moment and that makes this a tricky race for me. With genuine fast ground, Pipes horse, Buena Vista (i dont know if he runs even) is the forgotton horse for me and at generous odds.
Senorita Rumbelita looks a nice proposition but connections did not seem so enthusiastic a week ago. I wouldnt back her to be honest ….hasnt done enough.
SHL
"But I see nothing else in the race NH-bred which has shown the kind of potential as O’Muircheartaigh."
I’m not sure you could identify a NH-bred horse if it’s pedigree hit you on the nose.
"Tourist Attraction was the other – although I think he only had the one run after he won at Chelts."
Tourist Attraction was a she, and once she had her black-type win retired to stud.
"This race will be won by a flat-bred or O’Muircheartaigh – hence my EW interest in Crow Wood, and continued persistance of people backing Sweet Wake"
Doesn’t rule out many, that.  Why not Noland?, or Straw Bear, or Zaiyad, Sublimity, Orcadian, or Whispered Promises, or Masafi?
The truth is, it does not matter if they are flat-bred – there is no proven advantage (except that they make up more of the field, so you would expect the odd one to win).
To use this as an argument for Sweet Wake is pointless.  Factors such as cormack’s post and an assessment of the runners purely on their hurdling form is far, far more relevant.
(Edited by Sal at 1:11 pm on Mar. 12, 2006)
Quote: from Sal on 12:21 pm on Mar. 10, 2006[br]Other quality flat horses entered in the race this year are –
Lunar Sovereign (Grade One winner in the US)<br>
I still want to know what Pipe is playing at with this one. Useful is an understatement about this horse’s ability and yet he turned up in a lowly hurdle at Plumpton. Forecast to go off about 5/2 – 11/4 in the morning papers. Opened 11/2 on track and went off at 10s. Timmy gives him a nice hunt round (going wide at the bends) and rides him hands and heels to finish 4th.
He still could be anything. It really wouldnt surprise me to see him pick these up and carry them. And you know what, if he does win, The Jockey Club will do nothing!
Regarding the Flat vs. NH breeding debate.
As pointed out elsewhere by Alan Potts the emphasis during recent Cheltenham Festival meetings, relative to those which have gone before, has been on speed. Alan suggests this is as a result of drainage changes.
http://www.betfairpromo.com/inplay/2006_03_07_uk/opinion1.html
While Alan, correctly, suggests that this places youth at an advantage it is also reasonable to assume that it also places those bred for speed rather than stamina (or, broadly, flat over NH breeding). Of course much depends on the ground but on fastish ground I think it is perfectly logical to expect flat bred horses to have an edge, particularly over the minimum trip.<br>
The flat v NH advantage will surely hinge on the ground, and I have a feeling that even different degrees of good ground makes a huge difference. If it’s on the slow side, I’ll be keen on OMuircheartaigh, as I’d be far happier with OGrady’s record than Meade’s. As has been posted stats do mean something- maybe his desperation for Festival winners makes him do something different, who knows, but I won’t be backing a Meade runner at 5/2 until he trains a few more.
Dont forget Jazz Messenger. Discount the last run and vibes are good comin from Ireland. Also Blueberry Boy is well thought of. Have people noticed that the second most popular selection voted to win the race is "other"
I have just had a look at the card for Tuesday’s racing on the Racing Post website and Paul Carberry is booked to ride Sublimity for John Carr, rather than Sweet Wake for Noel Meade.
However, the only jockey to have ridden Sublimity over hurdles is a P A Carberry (forgive me for being unsure of his name).
Cock up by the Racing Post – as if that’s never happened before – or the first surprise of the Festival?
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 4:30 am on Mar. 13, 2006)
However, the only jockey to have ridden Sublimity over hurdles is a P A Carberry (forgive me for being unsure of his name).
I once backed a horse at Perth mainly because
"Paul Carberry wouldn’t come all this way just to ride one horse unless it was fancied"
and I found out after the race that jock was actually his brother.
The thing won anyway ….. :biggrin: :biggrin:
Steve
Quote: from LetsGetRacing on 4:24 am on Mar. 13, 2006[br]However, the only jockey to have ridden Sublimity over hurdles is a P A Carberry (forgive me for being unsure of his name).
His name is Philip
That was a silly mistake becauseone of them is P Carberry and the other is PA Carberry
I noticed the same thing LGR, but just checked, and P A rides Sublimity, and P rides Sweet Wake.
- Total Posts 438
O’Muirchearthaigh for me: highly rated and has been kept for the race, after a few niggling injuries. A strongly-run two miles around Cheltenham should be ideal, too, and he has as much chance on the book as the favourite but is available at twice the odds.
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