- This topic has 68 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Quote: from jackane24 on 2:01 pm on Mar. 9, 2006[br]He and Crow Wood are the only good horses on the flat who are now good hurdlers. That is my point.<br>
Jackane, what’s happened to your form book? There are at least 2 horses in the field that have better flat form than Crow Wood and comparable flat form to SW. One of them is definitely as good at hurdling as SW and the other just needs to improve a little.
Both these horses are available at 33/1 or bigger and SW is 5/2………..if you are gonna make statements about form make sure they are correct!
Paul Carberry has said it’s good enough to win the CH. Well why the fook isn’t SW running in it then?
I don’t regard German G3s and G1s as equivalent to the British version – more like decent listed class. Just an opinion before you shout me down! :cheesy:
Plenty of Pattern class flat horses have run in the Supreme Novices and have been beaten.
Wild Passion, beaten by Arcalis, had a similar profile to Sweet Wake, Gr.3 winner and third in the German St Leger.  Dusky Warbler and Akshar were group class on the flat, Cherub was listed class.
Brave Inca beat some good flat horses – Simoun was a dual Gr.2 winner in Germany (c. £135k), Dictum was a Gr.3 winner in Germany and Fleet Street was listed class. ÂÂÂ
From Back in Front’s year, look at Mutakarrim (Listed class, £70k, 9th @ 14/1), Limerick Boy (dual Gr.3 winner, 6th @ 33/1).
Bernardon (multiple group and listed winner), Scottish Memories & Sossus Vlei (listed winners) and Eternal Spring & Hitman (group placed) all finished behind Like-A-Butterfly.
Flat-bred horses have outnumbered jump-breds in the last 4 years – yet the jump-breds provide a better strike rate of winners (37% of runners, yet 75% of winners).
Ability over hurdles should be the presiding factor – not the horse’s previous flat form.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 4:51 pm on Mar. 9, 2006[br]To those that fancy Rasharrow I would ask
if these horses were entered/qualified would you fancy them and what price would they be?
Alph<br>Royal Shakespare<br>
<br>Given his season to-date, I reckon RS would be disputing favouritism with SW if he was running.
As regards Alph, his 2 previous runs before his 2nd behind RS at Sandown earned very favourable comments from the RP race reports:
SAN 03-Dec-05: "Alph … ran a stormer … this was a taking peformance … he should win more good races for his unfashionable connections.",
and
PLU 01-Jan-06: "…a highly progressive winner in the massive ALPH. Possibly unlucky at Sandown after winning at Fakenham on only his fourth start over hurdles … the nine-year-old went readily to the front going to the second-last and drew away … he could have plenty more improvement in him, and connections have high hopes of him. He is the sort who is likely to be underestimated when he steps up in class and is definitely one to keep on the right side."
I think it’s fair to say that Alph was indeed underestimated by punters on his step up in class.
No-one is saying that Rasharrow is a world-beater but a £10 each-way bet at 25/1 will return £60 if placed while a £20 win bet on SW at 5/2 will return £70 if he wins so, in a weak renewal IMO, he looks a decent bet to me and if things go his way who knows!
The worry is that Lenny Lungo is considering the Champion for Rasharrow (best price 100/1) but hopefully he’ll see sense and run him in the opener. It’s an encouraging comment from the trainer though.
Other quality flat horses entered in the race this year are –
Lunar Sovereign (Grade One winner in the US)<br>Orcadian (Group 3 and Listed winner)<br>Sublimity (Dual Listed winner)<br>Circassian (Listed winner in Germany)<br>Kalderon (Listed winner in France)<br>Mister Hight (Group placed)<br>Masafi (Listed placed)
Of those, Orcadian and Mister Hight are both unbeaten over hurdles.
Might not run, but just to show that Sweet Wake is not special on his flat form.
I can’t have a Meade horse at the festival. No-one is 1/60 without a reason why.
And I can’t have a Nicholls hurdler either.
I’ll wait for the decs and the reports on the ground before picking anything.
However, I’d be curious to know what our Irish members think of the O’Grady horse.
Steve
PS What’s this about Jackane writing articles for the RP? ****
me!Well I want to work for the RP so am writing articles to try and get me a job there. If you wanna read them, i’ll PM you them on Monday or whenever.
Doesn’t matter what they achieved on the flat – just the flat that they were flat-bred is the key thing. Only French Ballerina and Arcalis had decent flat careers before going onto glory since 1995 in the Supreme Nov, and Indefence, Sausalito Bay and Shadow Leader weren’t very good on the flat at all, but they all still won the Supreme Nov. Some of them easily.
Think you’re being a bit harsh on Shadow Leader there Jackane. He was 3rd in the Bessborough and the Old Newton Cup, if he’d won either of those (ie. been a length better) you’d be proclaiming him as good as Arcalis.
Don’t forget to PM me as well jackane. I’ll give you my e-mail address and you can send them on if that’s OK<br>
Way it woprks for me is that if theyve shown what might appear (and tahts all it can be at this stage) good hurdle form but they were genuinely no good on the flat, i would pass over
Fair dues to you Jackane. Tough industry to break I imagine. I can imagine that I would disagree hugely with a lot of things you say….but then again, thats why it would be worth buying the paper.
However, I’d be curious to know what our Irish members think of the O’Grady horse
Well the dogs in the street over here know that O’Grady really rates this horse and has for some time. This is part of the reason for compressed prices. He’s good but I wonder if he lacks that instant acceleration often needed for this.
SHL
just the flat that they were flat-bred is the key thing.
I’m still disputing that this is a significant factor.
Five of the last seven winners have been NH-bred (poss since a change in watering policy?).
Although flat-bred horses have had the numerical advantage in the last few years, this has not translated into results.
Yes, flat-breds filled the first four places in 2005 – but NH-breds have still punched above their weight in recent years.  Even ignoring the winners’ ratio they have provided 43% of placed horses (first four) from only 37% of runners.
Using the evidence of recent races it cannot be argued that flat-breds have any statistical advantage purely based on their breeding.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.