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The more I look at this race, the more attractive it looks. As a betting proposition at least. I can’t remember seeing a Supreme with so few genuine two-milers. Many of the main contenders are more likely to be contesting a Gold Cup in a few years time rather than a Champion Hurdle.
At the general market prices, I think you should have major reservations about most of the market leaders, especially 6/4 NRMB favourite Getabird.
He’s got them all ‘no good’…
GETABIRD
In spite of a stout pedigree (related to Long Run, J’y Vole and Relentless Dreamer), winning pointer Getabird was briefly Champion Bumper favourite on the back of two bumper wins last season. Injury dashed those hopes. In line with his pedigree, he did shape more like a grinder than a speedster in the second bumper win.
He remains unbeaten under rules with a win over 2m 4f at Punchestown coming before the headline 9 length verdict over one-time ante-post favourite Mengli Khan in the G2 Moscow Flyer. The main visual negative in that race for me was that Mengli Khan barely travelled any better than Carter McKay as they turned for home. Given MK’s flat racing background and CM looking slow as treacle all season, that raises a few questions about the strength of the form. Admittedly Mengli Khan as conceding weight to Carter McKay, but is he a reliable yardstick through which to judge this form? Given that he flashed temperament on the flat and ran out on his previous start, I wouldn’t like to put my life on it.
Furthermore, Getabird has always been talked about as a stayer. At one point you might have said that the Albert Bartlett was a more likely destination for him than the Supreme. Even after his win on hurdling debut, Mullins described him as “a smart staying novice hurdler”. Perhaps the early season injury to Annamix has left connections to force square pegs into round holes. To play Devil’s Advocate with myself, I suppose they did that well enough with Douvan when they lost Allez Colombieres! Nonetheless, I do think the Supreme course favours genuine speed types nowadays, especially if we’re taking good-to-soft conditions as a given. Since 2000, there have been ‘staying type’ winners (Noland, Al Ferof, Menorah, Champagne Fever) though soft ground (CF), weak renewals (N, M) and a pace meltdown (AF) explain their wins. On a decent surface against a quality rival, Getabird must be vulnerable.
KALASHNIKOV
A super horse who has been a pleasure to watch this season. Brilliant that he was able to win the big prize for Amy Murphy and Jack Quinlan in the Betfair Hurdle. Still, very little about Kalashnikov screams ‘Supreme’ to me. He’ll undoubtedly do better on a decent surface and can be marked up for his gutsy Tolworth second and big handicap win but that ground preference doesn’t suggest he’ll find extra speed on better ground. He has been outpaced before keeping on strongly in his last two starts rather than travelling strongly before getting outstayed. I fear he’ll be run off his legs here. He’ll be an excellent Gold Cup prospect in the next few years.
MENGLI KHAN
On the cusp of a Timeform squiggle before being sold out of Hugo Palmer’s yard to go jumping, he took time to warm to hurdling. After two educational runs as a juvenile at the end of last season, he won three in a row (including the G1 Royal Bond) at the start of this term. He then crashed through the wings when leading the chaotic Future Champions and most likely ran below his best when beaten by Getabird in the Moscow Flyer. The slight regression in his form is a worry given the traits shown on the flat – also worth noting that Early Doors may well have been closer but for fluffing the last two hurdles in the Royal Bond. All in all, he’s definitely not for me.
CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN
I should start by saying I did back this horse for the Supreme mid-season, but have gone cold on him since. Claimantakinforgan was one of the top bumper horses last year – well-placed before fading to a decent third at Cheltenham well-held but a touch better than the result when fifth at Aintree. He won well on his reappearance at Newbury and travelled well before seeing off Dr Des at Ascot – form of both races not looking so hot in hindsight. When last seen, he was undoubtedly unsuited by the ground, track and steady pace when third to Beyond The Clouds at Musselburgh. Nonetheless you could say the same on all three counts about eyecatching runner-up Simply The Betts in that race – with that rival admittedly receiving weight but earning extra credit for the run by starting from further behind and making niggly mistakes. Claimantakinforgan is OK but not one performance on his CV has much in the way of WOW factor – he just looks a notch below the best.
SUMMERVILLE BOY
I don’t have anything against Summerville Boy and would prefer him to those mentioned above at the prices. A strongly-run race on decent ground at non-sharp non-stiff two miles promises to suit ideally. Still, I just think there are horses with very similar credentials at even bigger prices. He was something of a default winner at Sandown with Kalashnikov suffering through the ground and Western Ryder runing below par. His previous runs (admittedly unsuited by slow pace) are no stronger than those of many bigger-priced horses with similar excuses.
PALOMA BLUE
Similar comments to Summerville Boy really. On the plus side, Paloma Blue looks a bare two-miler. On the negative side, he has been found out often enough, including when well placed but not even able to hold second in the slowly-run ‘Samcro’ race last time.
SHARJAH
Something of a ball-tickler on the flat according to a few French racing judges, sometimes finding less than seemed likely. With that in mind, his part in the bizarre Future Champions might be worth questioning. Like fellow final flight faller Real Steel, he was behind the strong early gallop (by choice, unlike Real Steel!) and swept through off the home turn. He was travelling strongly upsides and yet to be asked when coming to grief. He then disappointed in the ‘Samcro’ race. On the plus side, both halves of his pedigree (Doctor Dino out of a fast ground mare) suggest he can do better on a decent surface. Willie Mullins does blame the soft ground for his recent flop despite three good runs on heavy ground.
SIMPLY THE BETTS
This one has plenty to find on bare form with a defeat to Lostintranslation and a 4th behind If The Cap Fits leaving him some way short. Still, he was given an inefficent ride off a slow pace at Kempton (effectively giving the leaders a head-start in a sprint) before an outstanding run at Musselburgh. Despite receiving weight from Claimantakinforgan, I rate their runs similarly as Simply The Betts again conceded first run and made crucial mistakes. He is a brother to pure fast ground horse Crimson Ark and should do much better in the spring. He is a confirmed runner barring mishaps and has been doing some intensive schooling in the last few weeks. I’d say he’s direct value against Claimantakinforgan at 33/1 versus that horse’s 14/1 – and an even better spot given the views I’m taking against the market leaders.
EARLY DOORS
A bit of a left-field selection perhaps. First of all, will he run? Apart from unlikely runner Apple’s Shakira, Early Doors is the only JP McManus horse left in the race. He is 310/1 for £10 on Betfair, however, and Joseph O’Brien did not mention him in the vague outline of his Cheltenham runners.
Early Doors was a very good bumper horse – demolishing the useful Getaway John on debut before being sent off 6/4 when third in a valuable race next time (Champion Bumper hotpot Hollowgraphic just ahead). He immediately ran close to 150 when giving weight and a beating to Meri Devie on hurdling debut, then was a shade unlucky when losing out to Mengli Khan in the Royal Bond (mistake two-out very costly, possibly went too soon). After two months off, he was then dead in the market and never sighted behind Samcro. One thing you do notice with Joseph O’Brien’s horses is that they often improve dramatically for their first run after a break (Edwulf for one) so I’d be willing to forgive that given the level of form shown previously. There isn’t a whole lot of juice in the 33/1 NRMB (would he be much shorter even if a confirmed runner?) but I’m willing to put my £2 into the machine for a bit of fun at 310/1.
SCARLET DRAGON
I think I might have done some money here one way or another. I took the freeroll before his run at Kempton thinking the 50/1 NRMB was effectively a gift in that he’d probably only run at all if winning or going close – and I’d get my money back if he stunk the place up. Of course we got something in between the two with mixed jumping and a never-involved second. I fear he’ll now run and have his technique exposed – this has all the makings of a value loser.
With If The Cap Fits not running for me now, Kalashnikov could be the one here I think.
Excellent write up,always maintained this is the hardest race of the week,punters have been spoilt with a few hotpots recently,not on my radar at short prices.
The coming together of the novice form from both sides always fascinating,and can lead to clues for later in the week.School of thought that suggests more stamina required for supreme than neptune,due to the end to end gallop of the supreme,not entirely without merit,plenty from the neptune revert back to 2 milers.
Fist two races day 1 both appeal,looking forward to both races,best of luck LS3 with yours.
Thanks for that LS, a good run down on a lot of the main players there. I wouldn’t be so quick
to dismiss your chances with Scarlet Dragon, I don’t think that Alan King will be too unhappy
with his run. I’ve watched it back a few times in case I was watching it through hopeful specs
first time around, but I think it was a really promising run considering they have been trying
to get him out for some time and then had the additional problem of a dirty scope. He was very
fresh at the start and Wayne Hutchinson spent he first few furlongs pulling the head off him
trying to get him to settle and kept him right out the back. He nearly took the 3rd hurdle out
by the roots, but settled well after that. If you watch them after the 3rd last, everything was
working hard except Global Citizen, who had already flown the coop, and Scarlet Dragon who was
still travelling well within himself. He would have needed that, and even so he picked up well.
I may be wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time, but I think he’ll come on a great deal for the
race. I hope I’m right, and we would both be a damned sight better off shortly after 1.30 on the
first day if I am.Top write up LS3, even if it didn’t exactly backup my preference it certainly gave some good food for thought!
With If The Cap Fits out, Paloma Blue is my pick in this. It was actually his win in a Maiden at Leopardstown towards the end of December that drew him to my attention – he picked up sweetly off a strongish pace, jumped nicely all round and won going away from the last showing a good turn of foot.
As LS3 says, he looks like an out and out 2 miler – that win in December looks good on the clock also and I was just so much more impressed with his jumping than that of Getabird’s in his defeat of Mengli Khan – he seemed to lose ground at every hurdle. Granted it was only his second run over hurdles but it just smacks of a square peg in a round hole to me. Certainly not interested at 6/4, but clearly he has an engine and would be unsurprised to see him run into a place – just not interested at that price given what I’ve seen so far.
How you view the race won by Samcro over same C&D is down to interpretation, I personally didn’t think he lost too much credit in a race that wasn’t run to suit, on very soft ground and clearly he ran into a potentially awesome horse on the day. More of the then-market principles lost a lot more credit on the day (Reel Steel, Sharjah), and the fact that the latter is same price NRNB for the Supreme after that race, and after failing to complete in the race before tells me that there’s something in Paloma Blue at 16/1 NRNB.
Having said all of this, my record in the Supreme relative to my record in the Neptune and Albert Bartlett is abysmal. Getting my week off to a good start for once will make that post-race Guinness in the Best Mate taste much sweeter (or should that be more bitter?!).
Nice read Lost Soldier, but a lot of – didnt run to form, was unlucky etc in there, maybe a bit forgiving?
I think the form and manner of which Getabird won the MF is about as good as there is in regards to this.
My only bet in this was ITCF NRMB, which i am pleased about as i have been waiting for something to come out and look impressive, but have been a bit underwhelmed.
I will be backing Getabird on the day as it should surely be a bigger price?
Think he will win easy, then everyone looks at i afterwards and it seems so obvious.
Agree with the some of thoughts on the square peg round hole with Getabird. Obviously, the trainer has mentioned previously he was more a type for a longer trip and most early season prices/vibes suggested this. People backing him are clinging to the fact WPM has a good record in this, and knows what it takes to win and go close in this. The need for stamina is clear in this race, so much so it is often a race for a horse that can stretch out in terms of trip later in their careers. Still, he’s short, and i couldn’t commit to backing him now. I am not sure he’s going to be hammered on the day either.
Kalashnikov at 6s wouldnt entertain me either. I see him as a horse of immense potential, but more for the future- albeit winning a betfair hurdle as a novice shows he’s not clueless at his job currently! It was a great win, and hes clearly well thought of. I remember watching his race at Donny, and thinking he took a wee bit of stoking to get going, and i just wonder will the supreme catch him out. Anyway, i have my doubts on him.
Mengli Khan started the year very well, probably taking advantage of brilliant training, having been kept a novice from last year and having the experience edge. I wouldn’t so much worry about the ground, as hes flat bred, whilst the flat sire normally gets one that likes a cut, NH ground is often softer than the flat anyway…and who knows we could have soft if this storm continues lol..He’s easy to rule out given Getabird thumped him, but he gave Getabird 6pds and was beat 9ls, getabird probably had more up his sleeve there…but at the prices right now he’d need to have. Its also possible, Elliot targeted giving MK a clear run, before the festival, and will have him a lot fitter for this…He has done this before with the likes of AJ vs Limini, different scenario but still. I feel at 12s, people will back him e/w with the memory of Labaik. Not my fancy but i can see it shortening.
Summerville Boy- You could argue he shoudl be shorter on his beating of Kalahnikov, but hes been beaten by other contenders who are also bigger prices, and have disappointed as well. Basically the form is hard to judge. The faster pace and test of stamina may help him in here, and hes sure to run a decent race…He’d make my shortlist.
Claimantakinforgan- Wouldnt be interested, for all i can see course bumper form appeals to some.
Paloma Blue- HDB and bumper winners normally hints at a horse of good ability. So much so, Russell was there to race him on the 26th, when his retainer had a runner in the King George…He’s ran well behind Samcro when very keen…I am sure hes a horse of serious ability…He’d make my shortlist too.
Sharjah- has looked speedy in his wins..and travelled so well at xmas before falling. I thought he looked then, a very good horse and a bet for the supreme. Getabird would go elsewhere and all would be fine….well that plan went out the window. He’s ran bad at the Dublin Festival.WPM blames the ground, and says hes one he really thinks suits better ground, for all this may be true, his early form suggests he can handle worse ground? Anyhows, the way he travelled at xmas means i will keep him in my shortlist.
Real Steel- firstly, might go Ballymore. I took promise from his run last time, he was the front runner and he really didnt finish far behind the late finishers bar Samcro. A slightly less exposed ride and i think he could run well in this. Hed go on the shortlist.
Ainchea would also reach my shortlist at a big price- i think hes a cracking prospect long term, the fall wont be an ideal prep, but he looked good before then…at 50s hes a tempter..
I do feel this is a race worth playing e/w i remember a bookie doing very appealing place terms on this…so i will try and find who it was!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sharjah’s wins on Heavy ground were not strong races. It’s his two runs in graded company that I’d be looking at. I think 16/1 e/w is a great price
Definitely going here; he’s a speed horse and doesn’t settle unless there’s a strong gallop.
Next Destination will be the Mullins horse taking on Samcro
Lot’s of positive mentions for Kalashnikov but not many thinking he’ll actually win. I think he will, I can see him staying on past the ‘classier’ types a la Al Ferof in 2011.
Hard to get a good read on Kalashnikov’s form. Willie Mullins will know if he poses a threat to any of his as he has Bleu Et Rouge as a marker. He beat Bleu Et Rouge by 4L while receiving 5 lbs so I guess the real question is “how good is Bleu Et Rouge”? He’s rated 146; he might be better than that but if he’s not at least 8 lbs better than that then I dont fancy Kalashnikov’s chances. Have a feeling Getabird is probably better than Bleu Et Rouge.
Looking at it another way; if Kalshnikov did win the Supreme then I’d be very keen to back Bleu Et Rouge in The Coral Cup or County Hurdle..
So, with the prospect of “potentially” heavy ground, or heavyish, ive taken advantage of this price on samcro with bet365, (cant usually get much on with them but theyv obliged this time,been a long while since ive tried) 14/1 nrnb bog for this, yes he goes to the ballymore, gigginstown have confirmed, but if the ground where to turn up heavy, they may just sway this way like they did at leopardstown, they know he can win either and the supreme is definitely the easier of the two
But with this offer you really cant go wrong can you lol, ive searched and searched on there website to see if this is a similar offer to hills if he runs elsewere youv done your dough, but i cannot see it, hes not running, we know that, but weather wise, what if?? Hes a shorter price on the exchange lol
Lumpedon this just for the sake of it, no harm done.
Someone ruin my night and tell me that theres a “special” t&c for bet365 on this race lol there offering 100% cashout atm so if someone knows something, fill me in regarding t&cs
For anyone who hasnt seen sky bet and corals are both money back as a free bet if your on a loser,upto a certain £ of course, Take advantage…
I’ve also taken the 14/1 Ham, has to be a chance he may come here. They ran over two miles last time when everyone assumed they were going 2m 6f due to the ground so we may see a similar move here.
You guys are misquoting Claisse – he said the ground is ‘potentially’ going to be heavy once all the snow has melted. That’ll still be a week before the Fez.
With a dry long-range forecast, good-to-soft remains the most likely Day 1 ground and soft next most likely, followed by good. Heavy still quite a big price.
Still, Samcro NRMB is a good bet at those prices. Huge negative freeroll from 365 – money back if he goes to the Ballymore, enormous rick laid if he switches.
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