Supreme novices hurdle 2017

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Viewing 15 posts - 586 through 600 (of 615 total)
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  • #1291689
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16245

    Worth remembering that you can have up to £20 on with Skybet here and get it back as a free bet if it loses

    Was going to sit this one out Joe, as I intend to do with a few of them, but might just take advantage of this offer for Labaik :good:

    #1291740
    JAMIEDB9007JAMIEDB9007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 303

    Does anyone know what sort of record Willie Mullins has with first time headgear? I know it depends on the horse for needing it, but it seems unusual for Mullins to put headgear on a novice. I ask because I have just read Cilaos Emery will be wearing a hood tomorrow. Detrimental or a good thing? I have already backed it, so no harm done, just wondered if anyone had any input…

    #1291744
    plecornu1808plecornu1808
    Participant
    • Total Posts 100

    I just want Labaik to agree to start; is it too much to ask of him?#littlemonkey

    I believe Coral are refunding as free bet on refuse to starts

    Very interesting. Definitely keep that in mind as he is a good horse.

    Think I’ll back River Wylde though. Won’t be at all surprised if Melon wins easy but of his I like Bunk Off Early.

    #1291746
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1894

    I’m not a fan of free bets or refunds for notorious refuseniks. The likelihood of refusal is always factored into the price – you can’t have it both ways. Bookies set a bad precedent for over-entitled Twitter whiners with many of these goodwill gestures.

    #1291748
    msercs
    Participant
    • Total Posts 164

    Been asking myself the exact same question re the headgear on cilaos emery. I have liked this horse since the bumper win and backed on all starts, just pulled a bit too hard last time out and got done on the line. 22/1 happy to chance each way regardless.

    Martin

    #1291763
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    I’ve got to be against Melon and Ballyandy at the prices. Melon has bags of scope for improvement and obviously well thought of by the yard, but I can’t rate the form and lacks experience for a race like this. Thought I was going to be with Ballyandy here, but stable seem in poor form and younger horses seem to be more suseptible to viruses. 1 winner in 52 (since Ballyandy).

    Done Melon’s stable companion 7/1 Bunk Off Early – second in the Delloite and Henderson’s impressive Dovecote winner 8/1 River Wylde. Both could be suited by conditions and imo should be closer to two favourites in the market.

    value is everything
    #1291767
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

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    I’m not a fan of free bets or refunds for notorious refuseniks. The likelihood of refusal is always factored into the price – you can’t have it both ways. Bookies set a bad precedent for over-entitled Twitter whiners with many of these goodwill gestures.

    Another I don’t get is how they benefit from the NRNB thing? as there seems to be no reduction in price, surely I should just back everything about a week before the festival, and then end up with a lot of good bets as several of the favourites drop out (like what happened in the surpreme?)

    There’s a tendency to think make it ante-post or don’t, I mean bet with balls and if your horse doesn’t run, then so frigging what. Just move on to the next bet.

    #1291771
    plecornu1808plecornu1808
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    • Total Posts 100

    Done Melon’s stable companion 7/1 Bunk Off Early – second in the Delloite and Henderson’s impressive Dovecote winner 8/1 River Wylde. Both could be suited by conditions and imo should be closer to two favourites in the market.

    I hope you’re right.

    I think it’s between these 2, I also think Elgin is better on good ground, therefore River Wylde’s beating of him going away is close to Neon Wolf’s win and I don’t think anything here could have beat Elgin any more impressively.

    These things don’t always work out but it would be nice to have a few winners on top of the enjoyment I’ll get regardless from watching the races.

    #1291795
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    I’m on Melon and the one I’m most concerned about is Bunk off early. Can see him coming there cruising at the last on a double handful, he’d surely be a back to lay in running if nothing else.

    #1291796
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I did consider River Wylde for this when he was 14/1. He was very capable looking last time out but I’m just not confident enough in his overall form.

    The most worrying thing for me was the last time River Wylde ran at Cheltenham. Yes, it was a Bumper but he was a bitterly disappointing favourite that day, weakening in the last 2 furlongs to finish 12th of 16 runners, beaten 40 lengths. You can forgive that run if you wish but it’s a question mark for me about him coming up the hill today. That turned out to be an awful Bumper race as well, zero wins from 41 subsequent runs.

    River Wylde beat Grand Turina, who won a race on Sunday, but I feel it is a mistake to take that as much of a form boost because the latter horse beat a maiden rated 120 who was favourite and conceding 10 lbs to the winner. In the context of this race it’s not really relevant in my opinion.

    Talking of that race, the horse who was favourite was Meribel from the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable. This has not been the only horse from that yard to disappoint recently and the stable are just 1/23 the last fortnight, for a strike rate of less than 5%. That seems the wrong time to be going cold for Cheltenham. It casts question marks for Ballyandy and The New One today in my opinion.

    I felt laying Melon and Ballyandy was the call here. They can’t both win and I think they are both way too short. Getting both beaten seems well doable to me. Melon is purely there based on reputation, Bunk Off Early holds better form at twice the odds but I have had my doubts about the Deloitte so can’t back him. Ballyandy is atypical of Supreme winners with just the one win this season and that was also in a handicap, his profile doesn’t scream favourite for this race to me and the early runners from that Betfair Hurdle never showed up in the Imperial Cup at all.

    Ballyandy has contracted more due to other horses falling away from this, than any boost to the form and with the stable having horses pulled up and getting beaten a long way this month, it’s a concern for me.

    Much as I try, I can’t find one to back here at all. It seems an uninspiring line up compared to previous years.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1291809
    GoldenMiller34GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1126

    Hard to be confident but I have persisted with River Wylde for reasons previously stated (including that he had genuine excuses on previous course run) and rate Ballyandy as the danger, his was a smoother performance last time and I would not be worried re stableform.

    #1291898
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Well done to those who had Labaik, I didn’t feel he could win it but he did the business.

    To me River Wylde didn’t get up the hill. Splattering the final flight didn’t help but he seemed to be running out of petrol anyway.

    I feel the commentary team made an awful lot of Ballyandy being unlucky. To my eyes he was never really travelling like a winner and problems often come when your mount is not going as well as you would like. He was never really hampered much and the incident where the jockey went up his neck never really cost them any ground. He was still unable to catch the tiring River Wylde after his howler at the last and it might be a mistake to class Ballyandy as that unlucky today.

    The race was run 7.2 seconds slower than Altior last year.

    My two lays were beaten so I’ll settle for that.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1291901
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6121

    I have to be honest, I didn’t see that coming, but very well done to those
    that had faith in him…..and well rewarded for it :good:

    #1291907
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Sick… melons gets beat by a horse that doesn’t even normally show up… will my luck ever turn? :-(

    #1291909
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    Don’t think the pace of the race suited River Wylde, would’ve been closer without momentum stopping mistake at the last too. Ballyandy too would’ve done better with more pace and withouut all the trouble in running. As they said on TV, unlucky not to be placed. May be stable form meant he was below his best too. Bunk Off Early was unsettled at start, didn’t settle and met with inteference. All that said, first two travelled through the race better than anything else and they would’ve held those two places whatever the pace or inteference.

    Well done those who backed the squiggle horse.

    value is everything
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