- This topic has 68 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
There seems to be sharply contrasting opinion (and so there should be) on the opening event for the festival and I always like to have a poll to see what the general consensus is. I’ve voted for Noland btw.
Who do people think will win. Is Sweet Wake anyones banker?
If Cheltenham does indeed continue attract climatic conditions usually reserved for plains in Spain I shall be siding with Noland. ;)
Only negative I can see is that Nicholls has only ever had 1 festival hurdle winner.
Sweet Wake carries my biggest ante-post bet at 12s, and I shall probably have more interest in him on the day (price allowing).
Sweet Wake for me too. I have looked for alternatives but kept coming back to SW. I think he is banker material.
I am surprised that anyone regards SW as a banker. The ground on Tuesday has got to be a hugely determining factor and we don’t know what it’s going to be.
If you’ve got ante post vouchers at anything from 7s upwards well done – that’s probably a good bet. But 11/4 is ridiculous for a bridle horse that has beaten trees. We don’t know if it is Harchibald or Brave Inca when the pressure is applied.
Incidentally, it hasn’t even got the best flat form in the race.
It may win but it is more likely that it won’t and I won’t be paying to see!
Very difficult for me to understand how a reasonably talented horse oin the flat thats won a couple of so so races over hurdles (which applies to much of the field of course) can be considered a banker?
Ok. We are hearing all sorts from the stable blah blah blah, but they will have no idea how this one will cope with a high paced rough house big field at Cheltenham, surely?
I would happy to be on at a good price given the vibes, but 11/4??? no way
I tend to agree with slooch. I know he might be brilliant but surely backing novices like this are dangerous<br>
SHL
Clivex – he is favourite cos bookies are finally realising that flat-bred-become-useful-hurdlers can dominate this contest. Arcalis at 20s last year. Sausalito Bay at 14s in 2000. Indefence, French Ballerina. Westender was only beaten by a neck vs Like A Butterfly.
No, but the Irish trained + Noel Meade + Paul Carberry factor has massive significance.
But I have also stated that I think Crow Wood will put in a bold showing, who is also flat-bred. He is 16s and has arguably done more over hurdles that Sweet Wake. (Personally i don’t think so)
Very difficult for me to understand how a reasonably talented horse oin the flat thats won a couple of so so races over hurdles (which applies to much of the field of course) can be considered a banker?
Clivex,
Sounds like the profile of the 97 Sun Alliance winner…
Jackane, we’ve already looked at the past 10 years being a 5/5 split between flat and jump-bred.
Among the favourites, as well as Sweet Wake and Crow Wood, Noland and Straw Bear are flat-bred horses.
No, but the Irish trained + Noel Meade + Paul Carberry factor has massive significance
Why?
Meades festival record is pants
I know Meade has only had 1 winner at the festival, but I think this year will be a good one for Meade and for AP.
Last 10 years in Supreme Nov (i’m writing my article right now so facts ready in hand)
10/10 favourites non-flat-bred.<br>Only favs to win were L-A-B and Brave Inca.
Flat bred winners were – Indefence, Shadow Leader, French Ballerina, Sausalito Bay and Arcalis. 5 winners. Westener was staying on very late in 2002 to L-A-B though, and 2003 was very weak in terms of flat-bred-become-useful-hurdlers.
Jump-bred winners – Hors la Loi, Brave Inca, L-A-B, Tourist Attraction and Back In Front.
With the exception of Tourist Attraction, they have all gone on to be exceptional hurdlers. Do you see any really exception hurdlers in the field? O’Muircheartaigh is the only one IMO. But if the ground goes against him, SW and CW will be fighting it out.
How many of the previous flat-bred winners of the race had won group races on the flat?
I know not all turn out to be superstars but it must increase his chances surely?
Interestingly the form of his last race has taken a bashing with Conscript being beaten miles last time out. In fact all the horses in the field bar Albert Mooney (hasn’t started since) have been beaten since.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.