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Good performance from My Tent Or Yours, but way too short for the Supreme. Easily beaten by another Henderson horse Chatterbox,
Don’t take that form literally as they crawled round in the heavy ground and was a sprint from the last. I’d be amazed if Chatterbox gets anywhere near MTOY in the Supreme.
If there’s one concern about my tent or yours for the supreme (or the champion if he went for that race) is that he was really peaked for the betfair hurdle:
STATS SAY MY TENT OR YOURS WON’T WIN AT CHELTENHAM
MY TENT OR YOURS (41) clocked a seriously fast time to win the valuable Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Always moving well, he showed a terrific turn of foot to run away form his rivals and win comfortably.
However I would be wary of taking the 2-1 and 9-4 the bookies are now offering about My Tent Or Yours for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. He’s already won his big target race. It’s going to be awfully hard to get him to peak again in just a few weeks time.
I suggested after his last start that it would probably be a good move to run My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle because he had a better chance of winning it than the Supreme Novices. So it made sense to run in the race even if it compromised his Cheltenham chances.
The stats suggest running in the Betfair did indeed compromise My Tent Or Yours’ Cheltenham chances. You can see what I mean by looking at how horses have done in the Supreme Novices Hurdle which made their last start before the big race in something other than a novice, juvenile or maiden hurdle last time – or one of those Irish conditions hurdles that’s not quite a novice event but is still for runners with limited experience of hurdling:
Year….Horse…………………Last time out…………………….Supreme Novices placing
1996…..Dance Beat………….won Ladbroke Hurdle………….sixth
………….Le Khoumf………….11th handicap hurdle……………twelfth
………….Beakstown………….won handicap hurdle…………..unseated
1997…..Nordic Breeze…….unseated handicap hurdle…….third
1998…..His Song…………….second Champ Hurdle Leop..second
………….Amberleigh House..fourth handicap hurdle……….twelfth
………….Charming Admiral..third AW hcp………………….fourteenth
………….Wahiba Sands………third Kingwell Hurdle……….fifteenth
………….Faru……………………won flat France…………………23rd
………….Quinze………………..fourth Red Mills Trial hdl….26th
………….Fabulon………………eighth selling hcp hdl………..28th
1999…..Ricardo………………won handicap hurdle…………sixth
………….Perfect Venue……..second hcp hdl………………….eighth
………….Silence Reigns……second Listed flat race……….eleventh
…………Hoh Invader………..secnd hcp hdl……………………sixteenth
2000….Rodock………………second Will Hill hdl…………..fifth
…………Dodjo………………..won flat hcp France……………eleventh
2002….Westender…………..eighth Ladbroke hdl…………..second
…………Native Scout……….second Pierse Hurdle…………sixth
…………Got One Too………fourth Tote Gold Trophy………tenth
…………Snob Wells………..23rd Pierse Hurdle……………..19th
…………Fireball McNamara..9th handicap hdl……………..22nd
…………Ansari………………..won handicap hdl………………23rd
2003….Chauvinist…………..11th Tote Gold Trophy………third
…………Keltic Bard…………fell handicap…………………….fourth
…………Thisthatandtoher….second Kingwell Hurdle…….fifth
…………Lirfox…………………won French conditions hdl…11th
…………Detonateur………….third hadnicap hurdle………….15th
2004….Garde Champetre…second Agfa Hurdle…………..fifth
…………Zibeline……………..fourth Kingwell Hurdle………ninth
2005….Aleron……………….fifth Scot Cnty Hdl trial………fifth
…………Stan……………………second hcp hdl………………….11th
…………Madiba………………second AW handicap…………20th
2006….Natal………………….third Kingwell Hurdle……….sixth
…………Whispered Prom….fifth Kingwell Hurdle………..eighth
…………Rasharrow………….fifth Agfa Hurdle………………ninth
…………Crow Wood………..6th conditions race AW…….13th
…………Muntami…………….10th hcp hdl……………………..17th
2007….Special Envoy…….6th hcp hdl……………………….7th
…………Tipperary All Star.17th Ladbroke hdl…………….14th
…………Hide The Evidence.7th Champion hdl Leop…….15th
2008….Blue Bajan…………..9th Totesport Trophy……….sixth
…………Lemon Silk………….4th Kingwell Hdl…………….19th
…………Norther Bay…………2nd AW handicap…………..PU
2009….Intensifier…………….10th hcp hdl………………….18th
…………Leamington Lad…….unseated Ladbroke hdl…..PU
2010…Get Me Out Of Here..second Totesport Trophy..second
2011…Cue Card………………seocnd International hdl…fourth
………..Recession Proof…….won Totesport Trophy…….fifth
2012…Darlan………………….fell (gng wl) Betfair hdl….second
………..Tetlami…………………won Jumpers Bumper…….ninth
As you can see since 1996 there have been 51 Supreme Novices runners that did not contest a novice hurdle last time and they all lost. Fifteen of the 51 horses reached the first four in a valuable handicap or Graded or Listed hurdle against experienced rivals
I only had time to check the records of the winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle before 1996 back to 1989 (I can’t find records online going back further). But if the same proportion of Supreme Novices runners didn’t run in novice company last time over the last 23 years as over the last 16 then 73 such horses have contested the race without success.
The lesson seems clear. If you want to win the Supreme Novices with a horse you should stick to novice company for its prep race.
Next year I’d be pretty sure My Tent Or Yours is going to develop into a serious Champion Hurdle prospect. Right now though the stats say he is well worth taking on in the Supreme Novices. In fact if he were mine I’d be inclined to skip the race and wait for Aintree or Punchestown.
Runner up COTTON MILL (39) hadn’t quite lasted home when third in a three mile Grade 1 at Aintree last season. But he showed how smart he is at shorter distances with this big run. He’s probably not quite good enough for the Champion Hurdle but would be awfully interesting off his official mark of 145 in the County Hurdle.
Third placed SWING BOWLER (38) was always close up and ran really well to establish herself as one of the better mares in training. She’d won all her previous three starts and is a half sister to the recent smart bumper winner Red Sherlock. If she were mine I’d be sending her to Ireland where there are more good hurdle races restricted to mares.
You could argue because he hacked up on the snaff that he didn’t have a very hard race, but any novice carrying 11 stone 2 in a competitive handicap in that ground, it’s going to take something out of them
you get the impression with mordin sometimes that he just goes against the crowd regardless; if everyone is saying that horse is going to win he’ll formulate an argument against that etc.
but in this case he may have a point even if his stats are inconclusive- most of the examples he showed were nothing like as impressive in their prep run.
That’s food for thought.
Also there’s the fact that Favs/hotpots get turned over time and again in this (LikeAButterfly the last fav off the top of my head).
Also, Henderson has not won it for 21 years despite a host of strong fancies.As we know from Hurricane Fly in the Irish Chump last year, winning on the bridle doesn’t neccessarily mean the horse has breezed through the race without effort.
Clutching at straws maybe, but time and again the Festival throws up results that are a surprise, but then with closer examination the trails follow a similar pattern.
For the sake of my Jezki vouchers, i will cling to the above
you still need to execute a high-level of performance to win a supreme- you’re unlikely to win it on the bridle. these are proper horses that will be competing at champion hurdle level in years to come.
horses like dunguib and cousin vinny in recent years, sound a warning bell to any punters wishing to lump on at short prices in the race. it’s also likely to be run on spring ground which is noticeably different to the type of winter going that horses may have been dominating on prior to the festival.
personally I have a theory about cheltenham- that you need to be prepared in tip-top shape to have a chance of winning. the level of competition is so high that the slightest weakness will be found out.
I also have a feeling with all the funny weather this year, with the winter fixtures being almost devastated at times, that a lot of the more fancied horses may have had their preparation affected to a possibly decisive extent.
it won’t exactly be a surprise if a few fancied runners get turned over, and their trainers say "we really needed to get a run into him- the fact jan/feb we couldn’t do so made the difference"
for example in the gold cup I think conti/sir des champs have an edge over bobs worth/long run in that respect
Having already back My Tent Or Yours at 12/1 I’m fairly happy, but now he’s favourite, the stats concerning what has been mentioned and the favourites hoodoo in this race, I’m inclined to look for a saver elsewhere.
As My Tent Or Yours is the highest rated in the race, can we not assume that Chatterbox has just as good, if not better form? He beat MTOY in going that apparently was against him. Yet he still sluiced up in the Betfair on similar going. Chatterbox has come out and won again since, so if connections do opt to go to Cheltenham, he must have a serious form chance with the favourite?Does it worry anyone the type of horse Henderson has got beaten in the Supreme,last year Darlan,’11 sprinters Sacre,’10 Oscar Whiskey and in ’08 Binocular?
Does it worry anyone the type of horse Henderson has got beaten in the Supreme,last year Darlan,’11 sprinters Sacre,’10 Oscar Whiskey and in ’08 Binocular?
Add to that the Mare who went off a red hot Fav in 2007 and looked like she’d hose in coming round the turn.
Only the mare and Binocular out of that list where hot favourites though….and Binocular wasn’t beaten that far…
Binocular was an 8/1 co-fav, hardly a hotpot.
Binocular was Binocular irrespective of his price on the day. He should have won, he hosed up at Aintree, just as Darlan did.
Yeah sorry, my mistake, was thinking when Punjabi beat him in the Champion…
Was just trying to say that not all Hendersons horses to get turned over in the Supreme have been hotpots….Binocular was an 8/1 co-fav, hardly a hotpot.
Binocular was Binocular irrespective of his price on the day. He should have won, he hosed up at Aintree, just as Darlan did.
I know Shack, I was just addressing the comment that Binny was hot fav
Captain Cee Bee ~ great memories
Yeah sorry, my mistake, was thinking when Punjabi beat him in the Champion…
Was just trying to say that not all Hendersons horses to get turned over in the Supreme have been hotpots….No worries, I did think that may have been the race you were on about after I posted!
Does it worry anyone the type of horse Henderson has got beaten in the Supreme,last year Darlan,’11 sprinters Sacre,’10 Oscar Whiskey and in ’08 Binocular?
Add to that the Mare who went off a red hot Fav in 2007 and looked like she’d hose in coming round the turn.
The best hurdler he has had beaten isn’t even in that list.
Spirit Son was in the same race as Sprinter Sacre and would have won the champion the following year with me on board but for injury.
Just all bad luck though as far as I’m concerned as a 2nd in 2012 and 2nd & 3rd in 2011 isn’t too bad along with numerous other placed horses over the years.
Lee
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I know Shack, I was just addressing the comment that Binny was hot fav
Captain Cee Bee ~ great memories
Indeed, shame he’s never been able to achieve what he could have done either over hurdles or fences, but good to see the old boy still running well. I was on them both that day 8s the field it was like The County Hurdle!
The days of Choc Thornton outfoxing McCoy are a dim and distant memory i’m afraid.JP already has Jetzki who’d be a shortish priced fav without My Tent Or Yours in the Supreme. Henderson has River Maigue and Chatterbox.
In the Champion, Binocular doesn’t look the same horse he was a couple of years ago (inconsistent too). Whenever he’s in form you can see it in the market. They don’t fancy him yet, although that could change nearer the race. Grandouet is also under a cloud at the moment and fragile.
MTOY now has form not far short of Champion Class and improving rapidly, wouldn’t surprise me if he turns up in the Big One.
Value Is EverythingMTOY certainly looked non too shabby on Saturday, however he has been beaten 3 times from 7 career starts, the last of those only 3 runs ago when he looked far from a world beater behind Chatterbox. The ground excuses made that day were not in existence when he sluiced through the mud on saturday.
I think we have a hugely exciting prospect on our hands, but Champion talk is surely premature.
I recall being suckered in under the same circumstances with a certain Rhinestone Cowboy ten years ago. He ran well in third, but was found wanting where it mattered.MTOY certainly looked non too shabby on Saturday, however he has been beaten 3 times from 7 career starts, the last of those only 3 runs ago when he looked far from a world beater behind Chatterbox. The ground excuses made that day were not in existence when he sluiced through the mud on saturday.
I think we have a hugely exciting prospect on our hands, but Champion talk is surely premature.
I recall being suckered in under the same circumstances with a certain Rhinestone Cowboy ten years ago. He ran well in third, but was found wanting where it mattered.I think trotting up from a string of progressive rivals in one of the most competitive handicaps of the season was a notch or two better than anything Rhinestone Cowboy achieved prior to his challenge. On the day he wasn’t beaten by inexperience, he just wasn’t quick enough.
I would agree even allowing for a poor ride the Chatterbox defeat remains something of a mystery. The winner is good but otherwise it was a very ordinary race.
However, unless you are hanging on to a 20/1 Supreme voucher, I can’t see why anyone wouldn’t want to see him in the Champion. At a stroke it would make two races that much more competitive.
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