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I think henderson is playing a smart hand. He knows conan can beat the best of the brits with his matching of colour squad so if he goes close he will gauge how he expects simonsig will stand in the pecking order. I suspect Simonsig will end up in the supreme now and i am worried. He is one i ruthlessly ruled out but now see him as a threat with a bit of stamina and his form ties in with the bEST brit of the season Fingal.
This race is getting messy. I will stick with cash and go and saver on colour squad and simonsig on the day.
In the last few seasons, he’s also seen some of his best youngsters looking like winners but being beaten after the last. I think he’s decided Simonsig has the speed and the staying power.
The Fairyhouse bumper it won – 16 runners, settled in mid div, cruised into contention and was clear in a matter of strides. And it jumps superbly.
Some horses quicken when asked. Others do it with seemingly less effort. I think Simonsig is the latter type.
Going to place some antepost bets on Friday as i think the market will look different on Monday – some horses coming in 6+ points.
Fair shout. I am at newbury sat if it goes ahead and look forward to seeing colour squad versus simonsig. Could be a corker.
Simonsig is favourite now. albet 10s. Not sure i want to touch it until the day. Just want a run for my money. and it is all a bit in the air with his contenders in the hurdle div.
Fair shout. I am at newbury sat if it goes ahead and look forward to seeing colour squad versus simonsig. Could be a corker.
Simonsig is favourite now. albet 10s. Not sure i want to touch it until the day. Just want a run for my money. and it is all a bit in the air with his contenders in the hurdle div.
I think they’re waiting for the Deloitte
However, whatever happens after this weekend in England and Ireland, the markets will be different on Monday. Think you have to decide if the starting prices are likely to be much shorter than what they are at present
Simonsig wins and it’s 6’s. Wins well and you’re looking at 4’s, as it’s been tipped in a few places. Most recently in yesterdays Weekender.
If CC performs well in Ireland and connections change their minds and aim it at the Neptune, Simonsig will be a definite for the Supreme.
Is it at all feasible to think if Captain Conan wins well in Ireland he could go for the Supreme, and if Simonsig just wins or gets beat, then he could reroute to the Neptune as what sounds like the original plan?
Is it at all feasible to think if Captain Conan wins well in Ireland he could go for the Supreme, and if Simonsig just wins or gets beat, then he could reroute to the Neptune as what sounds like the original plan?
I suspect if you have backed the horse for the Neptune I think you just have to accept the loss. Just remind yourself not to back any Henderson horses ante-post in future. Cheer yourselves up with the thought that whatever price he starts those who have promoted him to favouritism on the basis of little more than a huge dollop of guesswork will be counting their own losses by the time the Arkle kicks off.
The Deloitte should go someway to solving the puzzle.
If Cash And Go jumps straight he should win and will therefore take all the beating in The Supreme
If he jumps straight and gets beat by Captain Conan it might be that The Capt has the beating of most if not all the Irish novices but I can’t see that happening
If he jumps straight and gets beat by Soux Les Cieux then Gallileo’s Choice looks the one to be on as he’ll surely reverese his 2nd with the Mullin’s horse on the likely ground on the first day.
If he does his usual lunge to the right at every hurdle he’s probably good enough to get away with it in this size field but he won’t win The Supreme jumping like that
If he jumps straight and gets beat by Soux Les Cieux then Gallileo’s Choice looks the one to be on as he’ll surely reverese his 2nd with the Mullin’s horse on the likely ground on the first day.
I’d have thought that the conditions on Sunday and the extra distance are bound to favour Soux Les Cieux, who must also surely be Neptune bound? Therefore if Cash And Go is turned over by him, I wouldn’t personally read too much into his Supreme chances.
If he jumps straight and gets beat by Soux Les Cieux then Gallileo’s Choice looks the one to be on as he’ll surely reverese his 2nd with the Mullin’s horse on the likely ground on the first day.
I’d have thought that the conditions on Sunday and the extra distance are bound to favour Soux Les Cieux, who must also surely be Neptune bound?
You are probably right about The Neptune. Only Willie Mullins knows how Soux Les Cieux stands with Midnight Game but few who saw him beat Galileo’s Choice at Leopardstown would expect him to confirm the form with the runner up on better ground. (See RP analysis) The Neptune looks a more obvious target anyway, given his previous form
As my main fancy for The Supreme right now is Galileo’s Choice and my only real danger is Cash And Go, who I’ll probably back on Sunday, in an ideal world I hope Soux Les Cieux runs a blinder in The Deloitte ideally getting beat in a photo by Cash And Go, despite the O’Grady horse jumping badly right again. After the race the trainer rules him out of The Festival, saying he’s being aimed at the right handed Punchestown Festival instead.
In an ideal world that is, of course
If he jumps straight and gets beat by Soux Les Cieux then Gallileo’s Choice looks the one to be on as he’ll surely reverese his 2nd with the Mullin’s horse on the likely ground on the first day.
I’d have thought that the conditions on Sunday and the extra distance are bound to favour Soux Les Cieux, who must also surely be Neptune bound?
You are probably right about The Neptune. Only Willie Mullins knows how Soux Les Cieux stands with Midnight Game but few who saw him beat Galileo’s Choice at Leopardstown would expect him to confirm the form with the runner up on better ground. (See RP analysis) The Neptune looks a more obvious target anyway, given his previous form
As my main fancy for The Supreme right now is Galileo’s Choice and my only real danger is Cash And Go, who I’ll probably back on Sunday, in an ideal world I hope Soux Les Cieux runs a blinder in The Deloitte ideally getting beat in a photo by Cash And Go, despite the O’Grady horse jumping badly right again. After the race the trainer rules him out of The Festival, saying he’s being aimed at the right handed Punchestown Festival instead.
In an ideal world that is, of course
We can but dream CS
I’d have to make the point though, if Captain Conan wins tomorrow, and impressively so, Colour Squadron will definitely be of major interest for Cheltenham.
Just the make up of the horse would make me think if Captain Conan won this impressively he’d have improved way beyond what Colour Squadron is likely to..A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and if he has already shown improvement after today it would be Captain Conan who I’d be looking to back not the Hobbs horse.
:shock: Just the make up of the horse would make me think if Captain Conan won this impressively he’d have improved way beyond what Colour Squadron is likely to..
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and if he has already shown improvement after today it would be Captain Conan who I’d be looking to back not the Hobbs horse.
You’re clearly missing the point there that Colour Squadron looked very green and ran all over the track.
I’m by no means saying that if Captain Conan wins Colour Squadron should be the one to be on, just making the point that he would come back into the reckoning big time.
Well it proves that Colour Squadron is slow and nowhere near good enough for a 2m / 2m 5f Festival Novice Hurdle. Ratings told us that already.
It proves that Captain Conan is nowhere near quick enough for a 2m Festival Novice Hurdle which NJH had said repeatedly and it makes little sense running him in the Neptune after such a dismal display.
It proves sod all about Cash And Go since he scoped badly after the race and came back lame.
It proves that Sous Le Cieux is not a 2-miler, something Ruby said after winning the Royal Bond in December.
So we’ve learnt nothing.
Ah, I never knew that about Cash And Go, so I still live in hope.
With regards to the rest of the race, I did phrase it wrong. What I meant was, from a personal perspective, all my current fancies went straight out the window.
Good news though that the Cash And Go dream could still be alive.
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