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Looking at the entries for the 2m novice hurdle on Saturday at Newbury. A fair few from NJH, plus Montbazon, Keys and Colour Squadron.
Could give a decent indicator on where some way go – fingers crossed from a personal perspective Simonsig runs.
I’ve not yet seen the replay of Trifolium’s victory, but his French blood, in addition to the fact that the highest rated horse he’s beaten is rated 135 (in 3rd), I’d say he’s not had to run much better than his previous best of 142.
Sometimes, I am very, very good.
RPR143 for his run on Sunday.
I’ve not yet seen the replay of Trifolium’s victory, but his French blood, in addition to the fact that the highest rated horse he’s beaten is rated 135 (in 3rd), I’d say he’s not had to run much better than his previous best of 142.
Sometimes, I am very, very good.
RPR143 for his run on Sunday.
I said the same, Zarks. Doubt there’s much left, especially with a stiff finish like Cheltenham
Think the form looks ‘ false ‘.It is looking more and more like we will not be seeing Captain Conan at the festival, i know they love him and want to look after him as they believe he will make an awesome chaser (quite rightly so) but waiting for Aintree or Punchestown, hmmmm
Simonsig has BJG up top in the opener saturday over 2m so looking like they may be going down the Supreme route
IMO, providing Saturday’s card goes ahead, backing Simonsig NRNB on Friday evening for the Supreme is a bet to nothing.
Nicky is obviously testing the water to see whether he’ll be suited by the drop to 2 miles on the back of him possibly not quite seeing out the trip LTO.
If he wins (which hopefully he will), he’ll shorten for the Cheltenham opener – posibly into favouritism and go there with a great chance.
If he doesn’t I would strongly imagine he’ll be aimed elsewhere so you gets your money back.
Lee
IMO, providing Saturday’s card goes ahead, backing Simonsig NRNB on Friday evening for the Supreme is a bet to nothing.
Nicky is obviously testing the water to see whether he’ll be suited by the drop to 2 miles on the back of him possibly not quite seeing out the trip LTO.
If he wins (which hopefully he will), he’ll shorten for the Cheltenham opener – posibly into favouritism and go there with a great chance.
If he doesn’t I would strongly imagine he’ll be aimed elsewhere so you gets your money back.
Lee
There are no NRNB offers yet on anything but the Championship races, which only 2 or 3 are doing.
Usually about a week to ten days prior to the meeting you start to get NRNB.aahh good point Shack, I’d seen Bet365’s NRNB offering but of course it was the big 4 only.
Lee
I’ve been waiting to back Simonsig for the Supreme NRNB for ages, guess the price will be shot if he wins Saturday grrrr
OK, well a tenner on the roulette and a tenner on Simonsig for Supreme and hopefully win more on the roulette to have a bigger bet
I don’t know, but I’ve heard a few people say Skybet are NRNB on the Supreme and Triumph.
I don’t know, but I’ve heard a few people say Skybet are NRNB on the Supreme and Triumph.
Definately not true. It’d be ludicrous to do this at this early stage where there are so many potential runners. They only do it on the Championship races as "loss leaders".
Change of heart on the simonsig front. He is a decent shout afterall. i think i am trying to find any reason to rule out horses. This race is wide open.
aahh good point Shack, I’d seen Bet365’s NRNB offering but of course it was the big 4 only.
Lee
I’m confident that they’ll head for the Supreme with Simonsig.
I’ll be even more confident if Captain Conran runs well in Ireland because then i think connections will decide to head for the Neptune with that, even though they had intended with putting him away til the autumn to go novice chasing.Nicky’s going for the trainers championship and needs to make up on some lost ground – their own fault.
I’ve trawled through the form of every runner in this year’s SNH, examined the past 10 year trends and considered how the race might possibly be run, but have found it difficult to put together a shortlist of candidates. I have tried to discount those who have only had the 1 or 2 outings as I believe experience is vital, and also those who haven’t run for quite a while as fitness is also important. Concentrating on the Irish runners has proved fruitful as more than three quarters of the last dozen winners have been trained in Ireland, despite the last two winners being British trained, and any horse with Cheltenham experience has to be a positive as well. Age doesn’t seem overly important, but 5 and 6 year olds tend to do well (Which isn’t really a surprise seeing as this is the typical age for a novice hurdler).
In light of all this, I am currently siding with two 5 year olds, the E J O’Grady trained CASH AND GO and Alan King’s MONTBAZON.
CASH AND GO, though campaigned solely in Ireland, has excellent recent form, accounting for the promising Sous Les Cieux in a G1 at Leopardstown. He is due to run this Sunday, so should be spot on for next month. At 14/1, he has a decent chance.
Of the Brits, MONTBAZON has always been held in high regard by Alan King, who is adept at getting his stable ready for the festival, and has crucial course experience. Was a facile winner last time, which would’ve done his confidence good as has been outgunned three times prior to that, and has proven form in big fields (has raced in >12 runner fields 4 times to date). At 16/1, he is also worth an each way gambit.
I think henderson is playing a smart hand. He knows conan can beat the best of the brits with his matching of colour squad so if he goes close he will gauge how he expects simonsig will stand in the pecking order. I suspect Simonsig will end up in the supreme now and i am worried. He is one i ruthlessly ruled out but now see him as a threat with a bit of stamina and his form ties in with the bEST brit of the season Fingal.
This race is getting messy. I will stick with cash and go and saver on colour squad and simonsig on the day.
I’ve trawled through the form of every runner in this year’s SNH, examined the past 10 year trends and considered how the race might possibly be run, but have found it difficult to put together a shortlist of candidates. I have tried to discount those who have only had the 1 or 2 outings as I believe experience is vital, and also those who haven’t run for quite a while as fitness is also important. Concentrating on the Irish runners has proved fruitful as more than three quarters of the last dozen winners have been trained in Ireland, despite the last two winners being British trained, and any horse with Cheltenham experience has to be a positive as well. Age doesn’t seem overly important, but 5 and 6 year olds tend to do well (Which isn’t really a surprise seeing as this is the typical age for a novice hurdler).
In light of all this, I am currently siding with two 5 year olds, the E J O’Grady trained CASH AND GO and Alan King’s MONTBAZON.
CASH AND GO, though campaigned solely in Ireland, has excellent recent form, accounting for the promising Sous Les Cieux in a G1 at Leopardstown. He is due to run this Sunday, so should be spot on for next month. At 14/1, he has a decent chance.
Of the Brits, MONTBAZON has always been held in high regard by Alan King, who is adept at getting his stable ready for the festival, and has crucial course experience. Was a facile winner last time, which would’ve done his confidence good as has been outgunned three times prior to that, and has proven form in big fields (has raced in >12 runner fields 4 times to date). At 16/1, he is also worth an each way gambit.
The 10-year trends for the Supreme are worthless. Believe me, I’m a trends guy. I compiled trends for the races between 1998 and 2009 and looked at them the other week – dire. Every single trend that existed between 1998 and 2009 has been destroyed by Menorah & Al Ferof.
Montbazon has no chance. Jewson next year.
Zarkava-ive only used the last 10 years as a guide first and foremost as to me it is devilishly hard to find the possible winner of this. The two trends that seem plausible to me are experience and Irish trained, as perhaps their novices are a bit more, how shall we say, ‘streetwise’ than ours and are proven in big fields. Cash And Go meets both criteria well and is my primary choice; Montbazon is a less confident pick, but I like the fact he has both Cheltenham and large field experience which are in my opinion two good pre-requisites to have.
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