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Yeah McCoy got off him the other week and said he was disappointed with him despite winning. The amount of placed horses Henderson has in the Supreme is ridiculous and his last winner was in 1992. Amaretto Rose 3rd, Binocular 2nd, Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd, Fleet Street 3rd, Chauvinist 3rd. That’d rule out Tetlami, Simonsig, Captain Conan and whatever else he has in the betting for me.
Waaheb’s now been ruled out by the Festival guru (ironic title) Weld. His name next to the horse’s also rules out Galileo’s Choice. Dylan Ross is trained by that other Festival legend Noel Meade so don’t like him. Also beaten into 2nd by between a head & 1 3/4L on his last 3 starts. Don’t like the attitude.
The form of Steps to Freedom’s win is so rank it’s untrue. Consequently I couldn’t have Prospect Wells with anybody’s money. He beat All the Aces so that’s him gone too.
Sous Les Cieux will probably go for the Neptune.
Don’t like Montbazon. Only won 1 from 5 and the distances he’s been beaten by range from 1 to 2 lengths. Don’t really think he wants it enough.
Cinders and Ashes ran in the Bumper last year so don’t like him. Better to run him in the Neptune I think.
Would come down to the very smart flat horse Distant Memories or O’Grady’s Cash And Go for me at the moment.
For the most part I liked the way Distant Memories jumped but a little concerned that the jock was seemingly riding him as if he was trying to preserve a handicap mark. If he is a Grade 1 novice it wouldn’t have mattered if he had won ten lengths so perhaps he wasn’t hanging on to as much as it looked.
DYLAN ROSS wants fast ground and a fast run 2m race which he get if he goes for supreme heard no news on is next race yet.
Don’t really know what to make of Darlan. He may well have won cheekily against poor opposition but he’d have to be able to do that just to run at Cheltenham.
I honestly think he too slow to do things to be fancying for the Supreme, maybe Newbury would be more to his liking. He may be a similar type but he doesn’t look anywhere near as near as good as Grandouet or Sprinter Sacre were last season. I was all over Spirit Son like a rash for the Supreme the first time he ran and beat one of Jonjo’s, but this fellow just simply doesn’t ring the same bells for me and I doubt if Cheltenham will suit him one bit despite having won there.
The horse he beat there by a nose was a 40/1 shot against Captain Conan the other day
Captain Conan’s different again, he’s a monster and would swallow most of them up going up the hill but the only problem is would he be sharp enough to get near enough to challenge when it matters. I suppose if he came on from his Tolworth run he could win this but his size would indicate that to be one very big if. I backed him before he ran for the Supreme but I wouldn’t now I’ve seen what he’s like to be honest.
With Simonsig very likely to go for the Neptune Mr Henderson could be doing with another horse to strengthen up his Supreme sqaud that doesn’t look as strong as it did last season. I’d still be very interested to see how Trozulon (FR) performs should he be able to get a run into him in the next 7 days. He looked really backward against Keys and my main fancy Cinders and Ashes, if he’s come on well could be anything.
With no Waheeb, surely Darlan will be an almost definite runner?
Definite runner, definite loser.
It could depend on whether Frank Berry and co want him to run at Newbury or not, that is the $64K question.
He could nearly be out of the handicap and no AP McCoy or Geharty to do the steering.
The last I looked he was rated 137 which is 12 lbs below the mark Spirit Son ran off last year. He’s surely not going to go up very much for beating Jump City 138 by a short margin even if it was in a canter?.
My first thoughts were Barry was trying to win by as small a margin as possible to make sure he didn’t shoot up in the weights for the Betfair but it transpires he was only concerned about holding the horse together and keeping him balanced knowing if he did he had the race won.
I don’t think he will win the Supreme and I doubt if he’s Nicky’s number 1 for the Betfair either. Soldatino is
Someone fancies him, he is ‘blue’ on oddschecker today along with Raya Star. Looks like one or both will be the PWise selction tomorrow for the Betfair
DYLAN ROSS racing at Naas tomorrow he either win on the bit or chuck it away somehow.I hope it is the former.
As obvious as it may sound giving their record in the race, I really can’t look past the Irish challenge this year. Allure of Illusion ran a really eye-catching 2nd on debut last week, and I for one will be interested to see if he can build on that, along with his bumper form. 25/1 in some places seems pretty hefty, and if he wins next time out that could quite easily be halved.
Two more ‘trials’ today and no nearer the winner.
It shows the weakness of the market that Cinders And Ashes was shortened after beating a stayer and a horse who never travelled or jumped.
As for the Irish race the only tip that emerged was don’t back Mark Walsh in anything like a decent race.
Also Stilvi, Condon gave Dylan Ross a shocker of a ride to.Was in front to long and should of been where Midnight Game was that been perfect postion for him. instead of being 2nd and 3rd most of the race.Big field and fast run 2m is what Dylan Ross needs.
Tetlami’s manner of victory is really impressive and the form is looking better as well as weeks go by. Can’t believe any of Nicky Henderson’s are better than him.
Well Darlan’s form was shot to pieces and he’d be 25/1 for this if he wasn’t Nicky’s> he may have looked good but as Barry said him holding the horse together made it look easier than it actually was.
I have severe doubts about Tetlami having the class for this he beat Vulcanite easily enough but he’s done nothing to boost the form unless you call an egg and spoon race anything other than an exercise canter and the 3rd was decidedly moderate plus if memory serves me well despite having won his bumper at Cheltenham Nicky is thinking more along the Aintree lines for him.
With Simonsig most likely to go for the Neptune unless they have a change of heart
That leaves Captain Conan.
Although Nicky and Barry have said he may need another year he’d need to show distinct signs he hasn’t strengthened up any since his first outing for them not to run him. If he improved 7lbs or 8lbs between now and March he’d take some beating as he’s a brute of a horse.
There could be one more iron in the fire Trozulon but even if he hacks up today he too is more likely to go for the Neptune but nothingis cast in stone just yet.
It’s taking some time for the penny to drop that the best horse seen out this tear is Cinder and Ashes who should be favourite for this. The reason he isn’t is because he finished along way behind Steps to Freedom in a bumper last season and that scares punter despite the fact he left all that form miles behind him when he moved to hurdling and trounced Keys who had also beat him in his bumper days.
He’s been my choice for this for ages and hacked up yesterday again. Despite the ground which looked awful he quickened on a sixpence to settle the race which was very pleasing.
He seems to get better with every race and looks a must for ew backers as you can still get 14/1 for some crazy reason
In a decent year he would be much bigger than 14/1. He was exposed in what were relatively poor Championship bumper races and this season his wins have all come on soft/heavy ground. It would have been far more interesting to see him taking on Oscar Nominee on a sound surface. That horse looked to have plenty of pace at Southwell but was reduced to looking like a plodder in yesterday’s conditions. Impossible to say he won’t win but I think it is doubtful Cinders And Ashes will improve on last year’s bumper placing.
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