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Captain Conan won it on ability not a fitness edge. There is only so much you can do with them at home and would say he would probably come on for that. I would say he was slightly fortunate with the 2nd running around. Looks like a proper chaser in the making and you would have to think anything he does this season is a bonus. Not the sort of horse who screams out Supreme but I won’t be writing him off. That was a very pleasing run fto for the trainer this season.
Actually backed Colour Squadron today & was pretty gutted he couldn’t stay straight. He’s a pretty good yardstick for the Supreme at the moment and ties up quite a lot of form.Am i the only one who thinks Montbazon is a great EW price for this?
He has shown a very high level of ability/form already and the surely the Supreme conditions would seem ideal? 2 Miles on good ground is where this horse should excel. His 2nd to Colour Squadron is excellent from (with the winner looking unlucky in the Tolworth today) and i’d suggest that conditions at Newbury perhaps favoured the winner. They murdered Ericht.
Captain Conan won it on ability not a fitness edge. There is only so much you can do with them at home
I didn’t say fitness alone, but there’s many a horse won first time out against horses with a run or two under their belt.
Captain Conan won it on ability not a fitness edge. There is only so much you can do with them at home and would say he would probably come on for that. I would say he was slightly fortunate with the 2nd running around. Looks like a proper chaser in the making and you would have to think anything he does this season is a bonus. Not the sort of horse who screams out Supreme but I won’t be writing him off. That was a very pleasing run fto for the trainer this season.
Actually backed Colour Squadron today & was pretty gutted he couldn’t stay straight. He’s a pretty good yardstick for the Supreme at the moment and ties up quite a lot of form.Am i the only one who thinks Montbazon is a great EW price for this?
He has shown a very high level of ability/form already and the surely the Supreme conditions would seem ideal? 2 Miles on good ground is where this horse should excel. His 2nd to Colour Squadron is excellent from (with the winner looking unlucky in the Tolworth today) and i’d suggest that conditions at Newbury perhaps favoured the winner. They murdered Ericht.
I’m in the Montbazon camp at the current prices. The form of his bumpers is working out well and although he threw in some poor jumps fto over the timber, he should really come on for that. He was always going to be better on good ground and the fact that he only went down a length on hurdling debut behind Colour Squadron on soft ground obviously reads well.
He was second behind the current Supreme favourite at Aintree after he was given a questionable ride. A strongly run 2 mile race on good ground is perfect for the horse.
20/1 is a knocking e/w betI’m very interested in Mono Man myself. I think he was unlucky to finish 3rd behind It’s A Gimme & Colour Squadron in what looks now to be a very hot novice hurdle. He travelled like the winner & made a mess of the last. Believe the way he picked the front two back up after losing all momentum suggests he would have won. 33’s far too big.
I’m very interested in Mono Man myself. I think he was unlucky to finish 3rd behind It’s A Gimme & Colour Squadron in what looks now to be a very hot novice hurdle. He travelled like the winner & made a mess of the last. Believe the way he picked the front two back up after losing all momentum suggests he would have won. 33’s far too big.
I’m waiting to see him entered for his next race before making a decision.
Henderson forked out £60,000 for his 3 yr old full brother last summer.
It’s very easy to get carried away when you see a race like yesterdays but in reality for Captain Conan to win the Supreme he’s going to have prove to Nicky Henderson in the next 2 months he’s strengthen up and improve something like 7 to 9lbs to have any sort of chance of travelling within himself at Championship pace.
I though Colour Sqaudron was always going that 1/2 yard faster than was comfortable for him. Being such a big horse you’d have to question whether the sudden pace changes is something he could cope with.
It will be interesting to see how Trozulon runs when he comes out. He beat the same horse as Titan De Sarti did in France over 1m4f in a NHF race on fast ground and they thought the latter was a world beater till they found he wasn’t genuine.
He did have one run in a hot bumper on softish ground at Cheltenham and ran a good race to finish 3rd to Keys.
He’s not been seen out since but a spring campaign is the name of the game for him and he could prove to be very good. He’s entered up this week ground dependant so I will be watching with interest,
Cinders and Ashes who was 2nd when he was 3rd at Cheltenham still remains at the top of my list. He slaughtered Keys when they thought Keys was a steering job last time and Donald McCain thinks the world of him. He has Supreme written all over him in my book
No doubt something will happen to change my mind but I’m still waiting as nothing outstanding has raised it’s lovely head so far.
MarkTT: Cannot understand your reasoning re Captain Conan being fitter!! The horse won fair and square and whether Colour Squadron would have won IF he’d kept straight does not matter a dot!
Mr Henderson has always stated this horse was a chaser through and through and from his size you can see why! However he beat some very good yard sticks here and it will be difficult for the owners not to take their chance at the festival i would think. Personally i cannot see the Supreme suiting as he has already won over 2M 2F in France so I have opted to take 25s with 365 for the Neptune, worth taking the chance as IF he turns up he will go off single figures IMO
The 10-1 quoted for Captain Conan is very poor value. He won today because, i think, he was fitter and more suited to the conditions than his rivals. Big, long striding horse in soft going up that hill.
I think the same comments could apply to Al Ferof who won the supreme last year, and as Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre were chasers in the making, those facts wouldn’t put me off backing Captain Conan for the Supreme. Should come on quite a bit for that run, now has the experience of a bit of a scrap after the last two fences, and that should put him straight to eat up the ground with that giant stride up the cheltenham hill.
Although this quote from Henderson might put me off backing him for Cheltenham, highly unlikely to run……
"The winner is unlikely to head to the Festival in March, with Henderson admitting: ‘I imagine it will be hard to persuade the owners not to take him to Cheltenham, but his jockey, Barry Geraghty, and I think it’s a year too soon.
‘He’s a very, very talented horse and very much a chaser for the future"Jamie: Mr Henderson also commented straight after the race that the owners may well be forced into running at the festival now! I would not listen to what you read, that result was very good indeed and i feel strongly that they have been forced into running in March
As i said in my Tolworth Hurdle thread in the general forum, his time in France was impressive, but he looks a different type to Sprinter Sacre last year, who seemed less furnished.
If they go for a race, it may well depend on Geraghty would might prefer other horses.
I think they have more suitable options in the Supreme and Neptune which Geraghty may prefer. AP could be on Darlan in the Supreme, with It’s A Gimme likely to run there considering the form of his last win.
They may well be happy with Felix De Giles onboard but if Tinkler is the only option, well you may as well not bother. A Cheltenham record of 1 in 47 tells it’s own story, though he is often on second or third string horses. And for a reason.
After winning in France over 2M 2F i would personally expect them to head for the Neptune especially as Darlan won well today and is deffo going for the Supreme. That’s my thinking but still got 9 weeks til the Festival so anything can happen.
Bring it on
Not had anything in this so far. It has been such a mediocre division there must be a fair chance that the winner hasn’t even seen a racecourse.
One of my first rules of Cheltenham betting is don’t back a JP novice ante-post for Cheltenham. You can never be totally sure where (if anywhere) they will turn up.
Darlan beat a horse who has become disappointing and a horse who had been off the track for several years. He is unbeaten and trained by Henderson but his actual achievements don’t match his price. He is also by Milan and although after a slow start he has had plenty of winners the vast majority have been short on both speed and quality.
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