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I’d be inclined to ignore that dangerous stat about 0-13 fallers last time. 13 runners is a dangerously small sample. Also doesn’t go into detail on the class of these individuals i.e. were they fancied and in with a real chance in the supreme??
I would be even more inclined to ignore it here as there are 2 horses in the line up with significant chances that fell last time out.
Risky stat
13 is a pitiful sample & I’d want to see finishing positions of those 13 as well before even considering it.
Does anyone know if Darlan is still a definite runner in this race?
Given he’s trained by Henderson, i think thats the $64m question !
10/10 had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
9/10 had run within the last 45 days
8/10 won last time out
8/10 were aged five or sixtaking the above ten year trend the following meet all 4 criteria
Allure Of Illusion 33/1
Galileos Choice 15/2
Montbazon 12/1
Simonsig 9/1
Tetlami 16/110/10 had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
9/10 had run within the last 45 days
8/10 won last time out
8/10 were aged five or sixtaking the above ten year trend the following meet all 4 criteria
Allure Of Illusion 33/1
Galileos Choice 15/2
Montbazon 12/1
Simonsig 9/1
Tetlami 16/1And just to narrow it down a little further how many had never run over two miles prior to the race?
No doubting Darlan was going well two out at Newbury but that’s along way from home in a Schweeppes/Betfair Hurdle with horses coming at you from all angles. I just wonder if he’s abit of a bridle horse and Barry wasn’t keen to find out when he rode him saying he probably looked to win easier than he actually did.
He might be up to winning a Supreme but I wouldn’t be taking the chance with the hill to face.
I reckon one of the deciding factors for Simonsig going for the Neptune instead of this was BG’s opinion of Cinder and Ashes and he’s still the one they all have to beat.
10/10 had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
9/10 had run within the last 45 days
8/10 won last time out
8/10 were aged five or sixtaking the above ten year trend the following meet all 4 criteria
Allure Of Illusion 33/1
Galileos Choice 15/2
Montbazon 12/1
Simonsig 9/1
Tetlami 16/1And just to narrow it down a little further how many had never run over two miles prior to the race?
They’re also stupid because these numbers haven’t been analysed properly. At all.
Menorah & Arcalis hadn’t won LTO. 2 of the 10 winners eliminated by your ‘trends’.
Captain Cee Bee & Like A Butterfly were aged 7 & 8 respectively. 4 of the 10 eliminated.
Captain Cee Bee was also the horse who defied the 45-day ‘stat’. He was also by a street the most dominant Supreme Novices’ winner we’ve had in the past 10 years.
Here’s a very simple trend for you;
Eliminate ANY horse with French blood. I’m not talking about where the horse was foaled, I mean an actual French sire or dam. Get rid of them.
Of the remainder, make a note of the top 3 rated on RPRs.
7 of the last 10 winners fell into this group. Straw Bear would’ve made it 8 had he had a stronger jockey on board and not that idiot McCoy who’s so weak in a finish.
Also worth keeping an eye on Nicholls’ runners who won last time out; 0125P10. If you only took those with a RPR of 135+; 011. Granit Jack on 134 finished 2nd to a fluke winner as well.
No Nicholls runner this year.
Those with French blood are; Montbazon, Allure of Illusion & Prospect Wells.
Top 5 rated at the moment; Galileo’s Choice 149, Midnight Game 148, Dylan Ross 147, Cash And Go 145, Cinders and Ashes 145. All of them have perfectly satisfactory topspeed ratings.
Would be very surprising to see a British winner of the first. I’d absolutely love for Simonsig to run in this because he’d have no chance.
10/10 had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
9/10 had run within the last 45 days
8/10 won last time out
8/10 were aged five or sixtaking the above ten year trend the following meet all 4 criteria
Allure Of Illusion 33/1
Galileos Choice 15/2
Montbazon 12/1
Simonsig 9/1
Tetlami 16/1And just to narrow it down a little further how many had never run over two miles prior to the race?
They’re also stupid because these numbers haven’t been analysed properly. At all.
Menorah & Arcalis hadn’t won LTO. 2 of the 10 winners eliminated by your ‘trends’.
Captain Cee Bee & Like A Butterfly were aged 7 & 8 respectively. 4 of the 10 eliminated.
Captain Cee Bee was also the horse who defied the 45-day ‘stat’. He was also by a street the most dominant Supreme Novices’ winner we’ve had in the past 10 years.
Which Zarkava is exactly what the trends say at the top of the page if you’d care to look.
It says 8 out of 10 won LTO
It says 8 out of 10 were aged 5 or 6
It says 9 out of 10 had run within the last 45 daysI did look. Your ‘trends’ cover 6 of the last 10 winners & you’ve put up a shortlist of 5.
They’re also misleading. As someone who uses trends, believe me, this is the wrong race to use them for. The Supreme is not a trends race.
Andrew Tinkler speaking at Warwick preview indicated that Simonsig should head for the Supreme (he rides him in work). Reckons the Neptune distance is all wrong for him.
Darlan now top price of 10s from 14s at the start of the week, good money means he is probably running. Thank Christ because that is my only insurance to Steps to Freedom.
Apparently he’ll be confirmed as McCoy’s mount imminently & Simonsig will also be confirmed for the Neptune.
Andrew Tinkler speaking at Warwick preview indicated that Simonsig should head for the Supreme (he rides him in work). Reckons the Neptune distance is all wrong for him.
For once i agree with Tinkler. His lower Top Speed doesn’t concern me as i think he’ll go a clip if needed to. Can’t see him beating Boston Bob in the Neptune.
Apparently he’ll be confirmed as McCoy’s mount imminently & Simonsig will also be confirmed for the Neptune.
You would think, given the betting Zarks. Put on an AP/JP Ew L15 last week, Binocular/GMOOH/Quantitativeeasing/Darlan – assume one will get lumped into over the next week or so
I always back JP McManus’ runners at the festival – targeted at it all season round. Looks a decent bet that.
Andrew Tinkler speaking at Warwick preview indicated that Simonsig should head for the Supreme (he rides him in work). Reckons the Neptune distance is all wrong for him.
So we take more notice of the person who rides him at home rather than the person who actually rides him in his races? How much more pitiful can these pleas get?
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