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I wouldn’t be one bit worried a about Hurrcane Fly handling Cheltenham but I would be worried about Michael Flips jumping either.
Andy Turnell has a future over fences marked out for the horse and although he made a bad mistake when beaten but horses aren’t stupid. Like some humans they learn from their mistakes.
I have severe doubts about his hurdle form being anywhere good enough to win the Supreme. His best run was against a fairly moderate Henderson horse, although it must be said he was giving away lumps of weight and on a track you would have to agree was probably against him.
I know TJ has said he may ride MF but JP McManus had two entries in Ainama and Sunnyhillboy who now goes for the County Hurdle. I would imagine JP will definitely want to run Ainama in this but if he doesn’t then I would have thought AP will most likely ride his Torphichen for the Pipes.
Despite having won at Kempton, being a chasing type you might find he will be taken of his feet. They go one helluva pace at Cheltenham and his type are seldom quiick enough. He could like many other future chasing stars run into a place though.
Hurrican Fly looks really special to me and if he makes it he”ll be backed of the boards and he’ll win IMO. If not then I will back whatever AP rides and Cousin Vinny would be a lay for me.
I think you have it about right in your assessment of MF, Aristo. Slower ground on the first day (a possibility with the watering can out) would obviously even things up a bit in his favour and I could see him finishing strongly up the hill after having got a bit outpaced earlier in the race. Whether he could emulate a run like that of Noland in this race would obviously depend greatly on how well the front horses judge the pace and whether the fancied speedier types truly last home in a race that often sees a lot of those who have been ridden prominently finishing very tired.
I seem to recall the time for that Kempton race was a bit faster than Harchibald recorded later in the day in the Christmas Hurdle. That is not particularly significant, as they didn’t set much of an early pace in Harchibald’s race. And the main issue with MF, I would say, is not so much whether he is capable of recording a good overall time for the distance, but more whether he has the acceleration to avoid being outpaced in key parts of the race at Cheltenham. He did well enough at Kempton to think he is not the slowest off the mark, but he is a fairly big horse who might just struggle to keep up as they quicken down the hill at Cheltenham.
MF is still not a bad each way price though i.e. for a horse that is likely to see out the trip very well and will probably benefit more than most from any momentum he is able to gain coming down the hill into the finishing straight. I would see even better value on Kempes at present though, even with the remaining doubt about his participation. Anything around 20/1 NRNB on Kempes would be attractive, I feel. Of course, like Cousin Vinny, there is a suspicion that Kempes may be one who is able to run a lot faster than he can jump once they begin to race. If he were in contention coming to the last, I would be very much holding my breath on that one.
I know TJ has said he may ride MF but JP McManus had two entries in Ainama and Sunnyhillboy who now goes for the County Hurdle.
How certain is this? At one stage it was in black and white that Sunnyhillboy was heading for the Totesport only to be taken out? It would also be useful to know if Can’t Buy Time was a certainty for the William Hill so we could all take the 10/1?
Looks grim for Hurricane Fly now if the exchange prices are a reflection of his chance of making the start. I am surprised about the negativity for Cousin Vinny…he has festival championhip under his belt, battles, is in great form and is the quickest horse in the race as far as I can see. Worthy favourite.
He’s out according to the RP and Sportinglife websites. Probably won’t be the last high profile horse to be pulled out before the festival. Hopefully he’ll be back for Punchestown.
Nice start for the bookmakers and it could get worse it they decide to step Cousin Vinny up in trip. Personally I think Mikael has been the more impressive of two and has the better change of pace. He is also likely to want softer ground which seems most likely at the start of the week.
This now looks even more of a soft race compared to the Ballymore. Mad Max has solid form at a longer trip – can we see him taking this option?
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He’s only just had a breating operation, hasn’t he? How likely is that he’ll even make the Festival, or at least be well enough to run to his best?
It’s been some time now since that op equi and he’s back in training.
Much may change now that HF doesn’t run.
Nicky Henderson originally favoured the Balmore for him if the ground is good or on the good side of good to soft but said he will go for the Supreme if the ground is soft. That may be unlikley and they must still fancy JP’s horse a bit despite him being beaten the other day. Enough to not run Mad Max if the ground suits is another question.
With HF out and them are watering it might be better for those who fancy Mad Max to also have a saver at 20/1 for this. There certainly isn’t anything now to scare him off other than fastish ground.
The race remains a bit of a mess and it’s dodgy backing anything at the moment.
Just to elaborate on Cousin Vinny I believe he is heading this market on the basis of his bumper achievements rather than what he has achieved over hurdles. He made a satisfactory debut but that was in a very slowly run race and the form cannot be taken at face value. Next time he easily broke his maiden against modest opposition but even then he had to be ridden quite vigorously to reach top gear. Although conditions were put down as an excuse there was nothing at all impressive about his follow up victory and despite the plaudits it is dubious what he actually looked like achieving last time. Whatever the actual merit of Pandorama he has looked a dour galloper and as such liable to be outpaced over a shorter trip. The other two runners had already been exposed at a decent level and one would probably have preferred a longer trip and the other shorter. Cousin Vinny may step up on the day but at around 3/1 I think there are still plenty of question marks particularly if trainers see this as a significantly better opportunity with Hurricane Fly out of the way.
For those who arent already on Ainama, it may now be time, whilst there are still some 12s about, he should be heading this market at about 3 or 4-1 on all known form. Can anyone see another horse in the market less likely to fail to make the first 3? With Hurricane out he will now be hard to beat on a watered track.
As long as he is fit and well after saturday’s exertions that is. But if that is the case then I wouldnt be surprised to see a hail of money coming in for him quite soon.
Johnson / Wylie not to be underestimated in novice hurdles. Red Moloney the value for me too Equitrack.
Have top agree regarding Red Moloney, I make Ainama favorite for this but have Red Moloney, Kempes, Aachen, Copper Bleu and Eradicate down as the dangers in about that order. Think Cousin Vinny is too slow, and Torpichen is too speedy (cant see him getting up the hill well enough), Go Native just doesnt look anywhere near good enough, and Micheal Flips and Medermit would want it softer IMO.
Think Cousin Vinny is too slow,.
I make him the fastest horse in the race Bul’ … his last 2 furlongs at Punchestown and his time from the last at Leopardstown (Christmas) point to him having a higher top speed than any other runner.
I would find it hard to believe that Cousin Vinnys finish in a competition paced 2 mile bumper would have more speed than for example, Red Moloney’s very good finishes over 10-13furlongs on the flat, often in slow paced events. If he has the speed to win this I will be genuinely shocked.
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