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This is not a race I’m going to get heavily involved in, as I’ll feel completely in the dark over the state of the ground until the Supreme has been run.
However, I’ve taken a small chance e/w on Kangaroo Court at 25s. Considering he’s won an Irish point he travels through his races like a horse with bags of ability, and he’s shaped like a strongly-run 2 miles around Cheltenham may just suit him perfectly.He may of course just be a big girls’ blouse, but at the aforementioned price I’m willing to pay to find out.
Medermit is bred to be a soft ground specialist at around about 2 miles, and has run that way thus far IMO. He beat Golan Way earlier in the season when Golan Way done to much from the front on soft, and I would be inclined to take Golan Way as the positive from that and save Medermit for a 2mile handicap on soft somehwere next season, he’s similarly bred to numide and I’ll play him the same way as numide last year in the race, by just ignoring him and hoping he doesnt win.
- Total Posts 158
mcCoy aint riding micheal flips so ive just been told off the stable
. never mind the horse can carry mark grant round and will have more than plenty left up the hill on what is forecast soft ground. i am still very confident and this is still my biggest bet of the festival. mark my words this horse will be bang there at the finnish line just hope mark grant wont let me down. "COME ON MICHEAL FLIPS"If it is genuinely soft then I’d give him a cracking chance KJ along with Medermit and possibly even cousin vinny and a few of the outsiders.
I hope to god it isnt soft though…
In today’s Post despite all the previous messages from Harry Findlay to the contrary (punted down to 8/1 for the County) the trainer seems to indicate he will go for the Supreme Novices. I doubt there will be any 25/1 left at the end of day.
Been a few quid for Mikael in the last 18 hours.
There was nothing for him on the Lay side until yesterday evening, and he is now 28 to Back and 40 to Lay.
This is probably just speculation, and the prices/market depth don’t tend toward anything significant at this stage. But with Soft ground now looking a distinct possibility, it’s not entirely impossible that Mikael will run here, rather than the Ballymore. I’ll be keeping an eye out for any major moves.
Moehat, Medermit was due to run in the abandoned 2m H’cap Hurdle at Newbury, formerly known as the Schweppes. After that was abandoned I suppose there was no other suitable alternative.
In today’s Post despite all the previous messages from Harry Findlay to the contrary (punted down to 8/1 for the County) the trainer seems to indicate he will go for the Supreme Novices. I doubt there will be any 25/1 left at the end of day.
I guess Big Eared Fran’s win gave the form a boost for Aachen and the forecast pointing to wetter conditions earlier in the week has probably given them encouragement to think about going for the SN.
I have backed him for the Coral, County and now the Supreme. As one of few that I mentioned who would benefit from softer ground he has every right to go for the race. Although I wouldn’t read too much into the Big Eared Fran form he has much more solid credentials than Red Moloney and in my book should be around 10/1-12/1.
I’ve got to back Mikael in whatever race he runs in, and it sounds likely that the first day will guarantee his desired soft ground; in my search for soft ground horses we were told at the start of the season that Cockney Trucker had to have soft, but I understand his last run was pretty poor..Somersby got a few good mentions at the preview the other night [supposedly Calgary Bay won’t travel anywhere without him..if they keep him somewhere around the winning post in the Arkle CB will travel up the hill like a sprinter…]
I don’t think Cockney Trucker is quick enough and I wouldn’t give him a second thought on soft ground either.
I know; it’s just than when I re read my notes for the year I often find something like ‘watch out for running on soft ground’ and kick myself!
Its the form book of eyes + racing post + common sense.
Are you saying that cousin vinny has better form than ainama?
Cousin Vinny’s best form was either his bumper form or when he was still travelling well at the end of an 18f race on soft ground against pandorama? Any sort of form which he has which looks applicable to the supreme novice looks poor IMO.
Ainma has a soft ground win over hebridean which although not rock solid through hebridean, as he was always due to improve with the ground, through intensifier back in fifth looks a decent enough piece of form. But it was how impressively he done it on soft that day, coupled with how he didnt appear to be one bit happy on good at kempton, and his jumping was poor as a result, yet he still ran a stormer for second, that balance of form is what would make him favorite in my form book.
There are a few who will improve as I have mentioned above, but on those trwo pieces of form Ainama should be favorite IMO, as he looks to set the bar.
Bully, correct me if i’m wrong but weren’t you or aren’t you pretty sweet on Hebridean and therefore over-rating Ainama’s debut? Cousin Vinny’s debut third in a grade 1 where he was done for toe and experience is much better form. I think he probably deserves to be favourite in the absence of his stablemate but my assertion was that Ainama should not be favourite on any form. His price therefore must make some appeal for you!!
I had a right look at this race and nothing in the first 6 in the beting has me jiumping out my seat. I’ve never been a Cousin Vinny fan and if AP rides MF (backed him EW already) he could end up a false price.
I’m taking a chance and making Golan Way at 25/1 my main bet now HF is out.
He won 4 on the trot, battles well, travels well, won’t go down without a fight and has won on the course in soft ground.
There must be every chance he had gone to the well once too often when beaten into 4th place behind Medermit.
He hasn’t been seen out since and the rest will have done him the world of good.
Very big price for a very good horse IMO
The ground may have really turned in Medermit’s favour – I think he could be the one for the money tomorrow.
I had a right look at this race and nothing in the first 6 in the beting has me jiumping out my seat. I’ve never been a Cousin Vinny fan and if AP rides MF (backed him EW already) he could end up a false price.
I’m taking a chance and making Golan Way at 25/1 my main bet now HF is out.
He won 4 on the trot, battles well, travels well, won’t go down without a fight and has won on the course in soft ground.
There must be every chance he had gone to the well once too often when beaten into 4th place behind Medermit.
He hasn’t been seen out since and the rest will have done him the world of good.
Very big price for a very good horse IMO
The only thing I would have against Golan Way is that he is a front runner and he’ll have to do it the hard way to win.
My two against the field would now be Medermit and Michael Flips.
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