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I’ve only just realised that I’m going on Supreme Novices day so I’ll see him; can’t tell you how excited I am about that! One of those cases of the horse finding the right people..the rest [hopefully] being history.
Tuesday looks by far the best day with the Arkle, Champion Hurdle and Cross Country race but like you I’m most looking forward to seeing Dunguib, cant wait, as soon as tickets arrive there going straight into the safe.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Have not been on in a while. Looked at the race on Sunday, some engine, although he cannot jump fluently. I will be taking him on in the opener at Cheltenham. There will be a world of difference between the mickey mouse race at Leopardstown on Sunday and the Supreme in March. Dunguib will not get away with his sketchy jumping, the pace will be completely different and if he jumps like that he won’t make the frame. More value in the double figure odds of Loosen my load and Rite of Passage IMO.
JohnJ
Chances are Rite Of Passage won’t run in this race, and if Loosen My Load finishes infront of Dunguib I will be in a state of shock.
I’m a big fan of Loosen My Load, I’ve had two really good touches on him this year and HDB rates him ahead of Sizing Europe at the same stage in their careers but beat Dunguib?
Not even with a furlong start
There will be a world of difference between the mickey mouse race at Leopardstown on Sunday and the Supreme in March.
JohnJ
John, if Grade 1 races are Mickey Mouse races we’re in trouble. Dunguib just made it look Mickey Mouse. Fionnegas had lost only once finishing third in a Grade 1 where he was tapped for toe in a race where there was no hurdle in the home straight and over a distance probably too short. He improved on his previous run considerably I think yet was laughed at.
Normally I stay away from horses that don’t jump fluently and at the moment I would have to agree Dunguib doesn’t. However, he is a novice and still learning and has jumped better this year than he did on Sunday. Notwithstanding all of that though he just looks a class apart to me. I was concerned from the start of the race that O’Connell may be giving him a bit too much to do (I should add I didn’t have a bet in the race) but without any encouragement, just a loosening of the rein, he was upsides the leader. O’Connell even had time to keep Dunguib a length down coming into the final flight, just so he wasn’t put off his rhythm by the leader before breezing past on the bridle. He’s also proved he stays because the race was over 18f in heavy ground. Cheltenham suits so I really can’t see anything getting near him. The only way imo he can lose is if he falls (I don’t think he will, he might be untidy but he’s fairly safe) or is brought down.
What a way to start the Festival. Cheltenham 2010 is shaping up into an absolute cracker.
- Total Posts 17716
I’ve had two really good touches on him this year.
Can we not have another thread littered with horses you’ve made a fortune on but not put up beforehand? It adds nothing to the debate and makes for incredibly tedious reading.
Dunguib’s jumping has been indifferent, of that there is little doubt, but I don’t think it’s through any fault of his own. He couldn’t help but take up the running approaching the turn in last year’s Champion Bumper because nothing could go quick enough to give him a lead. A strong pace in the Supreme is almost assured and that’s going to suit him down to the ground.
If you’re taking Dunguib on on the basis that his hurdling is questionable, you’re in big trouble.
As for Loosen My Load, he was fortunate to win at Cheltenham – third-placed Secret Dancer suffered from a combination of bad luck and having Christian Williams riding – and a narrow beating of Some Present leaves him with stacks to find with Dunguib.
If he’s in the first five I’ll be surprised.
The quicker pace will put the jumping doubts to bed his jumping is sketchy with a poor pace but as soon as they go half a stride quicker it’ll come on a bundle.
Loosen My Load couldn’t beat Fosters Cross earlier on in the season. He is definitely a fine looking horse with plenty of scope and he could well make up into an Arkle horse next year, but realistically he won’t get within a furlong of Dunguib.
Plenty has been made of his jumping which was far from fluent at Leopardstown but I thought his jumping was more than acceptable at both Fairyhouse and Punchestown. As Brian said after the race, the horse was put to sleep out the back and he only really started to ask him any questions after turning in. No surprise then that his best jump was at the last flight. They’ll go like sh1t off a shovel in the Supreme and it will suit him down to the ground.
Aragorn,
The Grade one race Fionnegas was beaten in was hardly a strong contest with the subsequent winner being beaten in Punchestown a couple of weeks ago. The point I am making is that the Supreme novices hurdle will be a completely different race to the hurdle races that Dunguib has run in, his hurdling will be tested and I strongly doubt he will be on the bridle come March. There is better value to be had than Dunguib, definitely in the each way market. That’s my view.
JohnJ
I’ve had two really good touches on him this year.
Can we not have another thread littered with horses you’ve made a fortune on but not put up beforehand? It adds nothing to the debate and makes for incredibly tedious reading.
Sorry MG if it bothers you, I only mentioned backing Loosen My Load as a way of showing my admiration for the horse, not to brag, nor to belittle a good horse that I doubt could get within a Parish of Dunguib If you’ve been reading my posts you’ll see Ive been just as forthcoming with previous losers, Kingsciffe who cost me on many occasions, Sizing Europe and Harcibald in The Champion. spring immediately to mind
Many other posters post about horses they’ve won on in the past,. have they been given "the message"?I’ve listed all my bets since I joined this forum so the "not put up beforehand" won’t induce any further tedium to your good self
I’ve had two really good touches on him this year.
Can we not have another thread littered with horses you’ve made a fortune on but not put up beforehand? It adds nothing to the debate and makes for incredibly tedious reading.
Sorry MG if it bothers you, I only mentioned backing Loosen My Load as a way of showing my admiration for the horse, not to brag, nor to belittle a good horse that I doubt could get within a Parish of Dunguib If you’ve been reading my posts you’ll see Ive been just as forthcoming with previous losers, Kingsciffe who cost me on many occasions, Sizing Europe and Harcibald in The Champion. spring immediately to mind
Many other posters post about horses they’ve won on in the past,. have they been given "the message"?I’ve listed all my bets since I joined this forum so the "not put up beforehand" won’t induce any further tedium to your good self
The quicker pace will put the jumping doubts to bed his jumping is sketchy with a poor pace but as soon as they go half a stride quicker it’ll come on a bundle.
I’ve never really understood why the above gets trotted out about bad jumpers. Surely if a horse is a poor jumper having to do it faster can only make things worse?
If Dunguib was struggling to jump at the pace they went at Leopardstown he’ll surely have even more difficulty on better ground, on an undulating track, going a stride quicker?
They’ve said from the very beginning that he wasn’t a natural. To me it was noticeable that when interviewed afterwards Phillip Fenton was clearly concerned about the jumping issue and that there are reports of him doing a lot of schooling since. I’m not saying he won’t win but that’s not what I want to hear about a horse I’m going to support at short odds.- Total Posts 17716
Nonsense, Carv. Try jumping an Olympic hurdle from a standing start and then try again with a run-up. Even if you’re 4’6" and closer to Colin Lloyd than Colin Jackson, I can guarantee you’ll fare better second time around.
Dunguib doesn’t have any problems jumping, he simply struggles to lift his impressive frame when travelling at little more than a crawl. Granted a decent pace, which is almost assured in the Supreme, he’ll be taking lengths out of the field over the last four hurdles.
They will go like the clappers in the Supreme, no doubt about that, Dunguib will need to jump alot better and a lot more fluently, but if there is a horse that oozes class and ability, then he is the one.
Dunguib must be the one, so I have to look at forecasts,and the other one who oozes class is Menorah. At 8/1 a forecast could be very interesting. And I think Loosen my Load could make the frame. I like his form with The Jigsaw Man but that Fosters Cross run raises a question. Didn`t he stumble or something?
I think anyone who intends laying Dunguib for the supreme is backing him to fall in the race. He does seem to be a bit of a freak and i dont expect to see his like again for a long long time.
Has anyone considered that maybe part of his current jumping issues stems from trying to jump out of bottomless ground? Most everything in his pedigree suggests he should prefer better ground and that is borne out by his performance on good ground at chelt last year. I expect he’ll produce a much more fluent round of jumping on better ground.
Also if you look at the current ante post market now and compare with the day of the race field you’ll probably find many near the top of the ante post market take in other options at the festival or just avoid Dunguib altogether and aim for Aintree or Punchestown etc. My point is (bar a fall) its not enough to think ,as a layer, you can get Dunguib beat in the supreme….you need other trainers to believe it too..or else the supreme will end up a race made up of one superstar and 20 odd other horses who are having a go because of a lack of strength in depth to the field and the hope that dunguib falls.
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