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Yeah that does look an interesting bet..
Can’t see Dunguib going off odds against, it will be the banker of many people to kick start multiple Cheltenham bets I reckon.Can’t think of another Irish trained horse I’ve been this confident about since the great Istabraq won this race some 13 years ago and he went off 6/5. Thinking about that, I can’t believe it will be 13 years come Cheltenham time since Istabraq won….where the hell has time gone??
He’s evens with Paddy Power to go off at odds on now, NRNB.
As has already been stated the Irish two mile novices look pretty average so Dunguib hasn’t exactly proven a great deal over hurdles. He is still a short priced favourite primarily on his bumper form.
Instead of running scared on the big day in March it would surely make sense for at least some English trainers – Nicky Henderson would be an obvious candidate – to take him on in his prep run. If they beat him in an instant the Supreme market is blown apart.
Are there no other Irish beasts that we can have a good look at to take Dunguib on with?
Visually impressive it was, but the form of Dunguib beating Some Present and co took a serious knock in the big novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Xmas.
Maybe the winner and 2nd from this race Hollo Ladies and Saludos are being overlooked?
Just a thought…
"stilvi" wrote: As has already been stated the Irish two mile novices look pretty average so Dunguib hasn’t exactly proven a great deal over hurdles. He is still a short priced favourite primarily on his bumper form.
Instead of running scared on the big day in March it would surely make sense for at least some English trainers – Nicky Henderson would be an obvious candidate – to take him on in his prep run. If they beat him in an instant the Supreme market is blown apart.
The only reason the Irish Novices look poor is Dunguib is so far ahead of them! I think Some Present is still a serious player in the Ballymore.
Can’t think of another Irish trained horse I’ve been this confident about since the great Istabraq won this race some 13 years ago and he went off 6/5. Thinking about that, I can’t believe it will be 13 years come Cheltenham time since Istabraq won….where the hell has time gone??
Shadow Leader won this race 13yrs ago, Istabraq won the Sun Alliance hurdle over 21/2m miles on the Wednesday!
couldn’t disagree with you.
especially with the host of decent novices in the henderson camp, one wouldn’t of thought it beyond him to throw in one of his against dunguib to see where they are, and based on home work decide if bellvano, finians rainbow, general miller, quantativeeasing, oscar whiskey…the list goes on..is good enough!
Quantitativeeasing is the one to take on Dunguib in the Supreme Novices. Bellevano has been found out.
I reckon Finian’s Rainbow will go the Imperial Cup/County Hurdle route, after getting one more run in.
I like Dunguib and have been suitably impressed with all his performances.
My big concern is that alot of people were saying the same sort of things about Cousin Vinny (myself included) last year.
I don’t think this race is as cut and dry as the odds suggest.
Still lots of time for a novice to appear out of left field. There could yet be a few unexposed ex-flat horses who could yet make things interesting. Personally think Manyriverstocross should be running in this rather than in the 2m 5f novice. He always runs keenly and the gallop in this race would help him settle. A horse rated 95 on the flat and good enough to be 6th in the Ebor (beaten 1.5 lengths) must have enough pace for this?
Another from the King stable is Salden Licht. He won well at Newbury and was rated 95 also on the flat when 5th in the November handicap.
I’m also looking out for Washington Irving. Hosed up in a poor Carlisle novice hurdle but has at least some potential as a hurdler. He is a son of Montjeu which is a bit off putting but he jumped quite well at Carlisle.
Those are 3 potential long shot dangers (each way selections if you will) who may at least give Dunguib a race.
I also like the look of Washington Irving, good enough to finish 5th in the derby. Beat what he had to at carlisle and could be one of the best value bets at 25’s
I dont think she;s been added to the betting, but the Irish Mare For Bill, could be a very interesting contender if she lines up. Unbeaten so far and won her first hurdle race last time out over 2m 4f, but i think a strong pace and a drop back to 2m at cheltenham will be right up her street.
For Bill would not be quick enough and every chance she will try and find a listed mares race over a staying trip.
For Bill would not be quick enough and every chance she will try and find a listed mares race over a staying trip.
Yes, being out of Presenting she has a fair amount of stamina in her pedigree. A staying trip looks in order……
please dont try and complicate a simple scenario…dunguib has course form and has won all his races with supreme ease.this horse is a good thing!
Yh good points stilvi & BenAitken
Some Irish people believe she can be the next Denman, but I would like to see a bit more before I even consider believing that
I think we all can see how good Dunguib is and should be the likely winner,but Menorahs at 10/1 is the best bet in the Supreme. His Kempton run was top drawer,faster than Go Native.
I like Dunguib and have been suitably impressed with all his performances.
My big concern is that alot of people were saying the same sort of things about Cousin Vinny (myself included) last year.
I don’t think this race is as cut and dry as the odds suggest.
Totally different horse to Cousin Vinny. Cousin Vinny was never a great mover and there were always doubts as to how he’d take to jumping. He never respected his hurdles and in hindsight he probably wasn’t a quick enough jumper for 2 miles. The bumpers he won didn’t work out as well as Dunguib’s bumpers either. I’ve heard people comparing O’Connell to Paddy Mullins but O’Connell has far more jumping experience.
CV also didn’t travel at all well over to England last year and Willie pretty much told everyone the day before the race that the horse wouldn’t win. He didn’t run that bad in the circumstances and had he not walked through the last when running on, he would’ve finished a lot closer.
My one concern over Dunguib is that, being a boxwalker, he might harm himself or blow his chances before the race even starts. However, he has been excellently handled by Fenton so far and touch wood he’ll stay sound.
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