Super Sylvester

[Steeplechasing]

Interesting piece from J Willoughby whose stats say that, in ten seasons riding in Britain, De Sousa has ridden nearly 150 winners more than he should have, judged by expected win probability.

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/there-more-underrated-jockey-man/

[Gingertipster]

I agree, SDS is the most under-rated jockey out there, despite being Champion Jockey. I’d still put Ryan Moore in front in pure ability terms, but even then Ryan’s mounts are over-bet. Either punters still over-estimate his ability or back his mounts just because it’s Ryan or Coolmore’s first string/stoutey etc. That is not the case with Sylvester and who he rides for.

I’d like to see SDS’s results broken down in to competitive and uncompetitive races and also prominent and hold up rides. imo SDS’s advantage lays primarily in judgement of pace from a prominent position. That advantage might disappear in competitive races that have more competition for prominent positions…

…On second thoughts, hope they don’t break it down and wish Willow hadn’t done this analysis. Fewer people know about this the more advantage there is in backing SDS, in fact why have I replied to this and disclosed my views?

Value Is Everything

[Steeplechasing]

:)

I sometimes paint myself into a similar corner. As you work through a piece of writing you often end up revealing something to yourself. That’s probably why writing is often used as therapy.

[Twice Over]

What about the ones that he did not win? Time at Godolpin? Jocks often get more remembered for the mess ups than the success

All fine and well ridding for Mark Johnson, the amount of times that he runs his horses in a short time, he is bound to win a race or two, maybe even a decent class 2 handicap .

For all his strike rate at the quieter courses or up north where the competition , while fierce (Fahey, Dandy etc are no messers) he rarely got rides at the big festivals like Goodwood or York (okay, he won a Group 1 which he had no business winning) . The other owners and trainers can’t all be wrong

Still though, SDS has done really well in Hong Kong for the last two years, with the limited chances. Another winter over there would do him the world of good

[Author]

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