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The plan would not have been half as likely if Ashkazar had run well against Franchoek at Chepstow where he was co-fav despite what Franchoek had previously achieved, so someone knew something.
The outcome of the Fred Winter is largely in Nichols hands, it would be some ask to carry top weight and win.Managed to congratulate Martin Pipe after his win yesterday as he was hobbling back to the winners enclosure. I told him I had backed Gaspara big time both times last year and had backed it in the David Nicholson race this week. He told me to double my stake!
Excellent news, Seagull. The mare is my biggest bet of the week.
I have never been a great fan of Ashkazar but he looked like a different horse yesterday to the one that has been out the rest of the season. Whether he can throw in two really good performances in quick succession is a different matter, the ashkazar who beat bormo last time looked like a really ropy character IMHO. If he can reproduce that performance with a 4lb penalty then he’ll be hard to beat but I’ll have to oppose him.
I must say that Clive Smiths new horse Free World looked like a really good sort in the paddock yesterday and although he disappointed I think Ill give him another chance next time.
How did he look ‘ropey’ in beating in beating Bormo, Bulwark, what did he do wrong in winning in effortless fashion on his debut and, other than clouting the second last on heavy ground at Chepstow, what did he do wrong there?
He’s a very good horse, simple as.
I thought he looked quite green in front when he beat bormo, and whereas he hasnt done anything wrong all season, he had never really looked to me like potentially fitting in to the top class until yesterday, where I thought he looked very professional.
Beating weaker horses easily only suuggests to me that a horse is easily better than those he has beaten but not necessarily that he is destined to be top class. Before yesterday, I personally didnt think he looked capable of fitting in with the top hurdlers, now I think it may be possible.
I am merely thinking that I will take a chance that he wont be as focused on Tuesday against possibly better primed opposition on the day, because I think he will be one of the big fancies of the meeting now and I dont think he will be any value for a repeat bid.
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Bulwark
"Won’t be focussed"?
For a 75k bonus, that his stable has already harvested 3 times in the past?
Would you be???Im not saying the stable wont expect him to be focused, but like I say he looked quite green when beating bormo, which may or may not mean that he takes some getting ready for a run and at his price which is dwindling quickly and the fact that hes having two solid races in quick succession, I’ll take a chance that he’ll not be 100% on tuesday.
Im not saying I dont think he’ll win as obviously he sets the bar and is well weighted but only saying why I’ll take him on with a few e/ws. Id say after saturdays race that its pretty fair to say that the fred winter will be a race for travellers, if thats where he goes.
So the choice is between meeting a horse who’s beaten them before (on heavy) on better ground or getting their backside kicked by an Irish hurdler 2 stone well in?
Go on Pipe, run him in the Fred Winter (better odds on the winner that way)
excuse me I have to use the phone 
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