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From a GN perspective, the horse who’ll be most interested in watching the Becher Chase is My Will.
Hoo La Baloo is on trial, to see how he gets on with the fences.
If it is a bit of a disaster, then, imo, it seems likely that My Will will get roped back into running in the National, so that the Stewart family have a representative.
It is hard to say, isn’t it?
I’ve read elsewhere about the horse being too young, but maybe they were thinking in the context of the GN, rather than a 3m1f Chase.
As far as I’m concerned, his age isn’t a factor, given that he won Chases at a young age.
I’d like to know more about the reputation of the
Prix Du President De La Republique
. I’ve heard it being referred to as the French Grand National, but it is just a 2m7f G3, with £75,000 to the winner (2008, £95,000 2009.
). I noted that six horses PU in that race and 4 fell (out of the 20), so I’m not really concerned about his jumping or staying.
He went from being virtual bottom weight when winning the race in 2008, to being topweight when he PU after jumping mistakes in 2009, so it might come down to the pedestrian question of either his rating vis-a-vis other horses, or maybe just the weight on his back.
I’m not taking much notice of using a chainsaw to build special fences; Evan Williams didn’t bother with State Of Play last season.
You can never really recreate an aintree fence. I wouldn’t give an advantage to any trainer who does.
I really like State Of Play – it looks like he’ll run over hurdles this weekend.
Watched his National run again the other day – jumped brilliantly until two before Bechers second time round when he hit that hard. Hit the next too before having to swerve to avoid Silver Birch who fell in front of him at Bechers.
He lost his position after that – 3 out had about 4 behind him but was leading at the second last!! Weird run.
I reckon they’ve learned a lot.
Keep him over hurdles till Aintree
I’m on at 33s!PS: Watching again – how was My Will 3rd? Ruby performed miracles to stay on!
I was a bit puzzled after the race to know what happened mate. With rank outsider Cerium running so well, and horses tailed off at Bechers then bang there 1 1/2 out.
Then someone "The Prophet" pointed out why. To answer your questions: Get the stopwatch out and time the speed they went first time around, from Bechers to the one before The Chair. Then do the same on the second circuit.
When front runners Black Apalachi and Silver Birch fell at Bechers second time around; nobody wanted to go on. They walked, allowing those behind to catch up. That’s why there were so many in with a chance.
State Of Play and My Will got away with their mistakes because they did not lose much (if any) ground.
Value Is EverythingHave backed Hello Bud for the National but hope he does not win. (Unless I end up backing him for Sunday). The winner of this will be walloped by the handicapper for April.
Value Is EverythingOkay, looks like this is the
de facto
Becher Chase thread!
Just let someone try to move it to the Big Races section. Do think this should be in the Big Race Section, someone’s bound to start another thread there.
Value Is EverythingHave backed Hello Bud for the National but hope he does not win. (Unless I end up backing him for Sunday). The winner of this will be walloped by the handicapper for April.
Good idea by connections to give Hello Bud some experience over the big ones. Looks like he has held his form from last season so must be full steam ahead for a tilt at the National.
His age is a slight concern although it doesnt seem to be bothering the horse himself!!
I’m quite taken by Palypso De Creek and have duly invested in him for the Grand National – his latest run in the French National wasn’t anywhere near as good as his first one (didn’t seem to ever really be travelling in 2009) but I was impressed with him at Towceser and if Longsdon thinks the horse is jumping fine etc. then it’s good enough for me.
Well worth a few quid at 16’s for the Becher.
I don’t think the handicapper has taken too many chances with him, Martin, but I couldn’t rule him out. Whilst 134 is a fair steadier, there is a line through Musica Bella which suggests he just might be a little better than that. The ground will suit, and though I’ve got a small stamina doubt about him too, I think he is a fair each-way price.
My idea of the winner is Companero. I backed him when he was second to Money Trix, and I think HJH would be perfectly happy with a 3lbs rise for what was a good performance behind a decent animal. Again, the ground will suit, the trip hols no fears, and his jumping looks pretty assured these days. I think 10/1 is generous myself.
Probably not weight wise but he’ll need to run well if I’ve done my calculations to go up the handicap and tick the "good form over the fences" box for when the National weights themselves come out in Feb. That said he’s only 6 at he moment so who knows if he doesn’t get in this year maybe next year.
Just hope he’s not another Gungadu who absolutely hated them
As a replacement for dear old Longshanks, who was pure poetry over the big fences,I hope for connections sake he runs a big race, both in the Becher and, eventually the National itself.
I’m not convinced that jumping round Auteuil in handicaps is a sign that a horse will jump round Aintree. It shows that a horse will handle three miles with the odd Grand National-style obstacle on the course. Jumping twenty or so of them is another matter altogether – a completely different jumping discipline. I don’t have the stats to hand but my impression is that most horses trying Aintree after spending most of their chasing career at Auteuil do not complete the course.
It’s not evidence that he will jump round but it shows he’s adaptable to different obstacles, given he’s jumped the double barrier, butte en terre, the timber rails, brook, bullfinch and the big water jump.
There’s not really enough evidence for the French horses in the National IMO – most are either coming over at the very very end of their career (Turnium, Astonville, Golden Flight) or are rank outsiders and pretty iffy jumps (the late Musica Bella).
Only 8 going to post this year; the smallest field in 11 years!
Given the ones that are left; i would reconsider Irish Raptors chance. In fact I’d say it’s anyone’s race now…
A runner who seems to have been forgotten is Keenan’s Future. He’s got no stamina troubles, he has good form on ground that’s soft-heavy and he’s well weighted with just 10-6 on his back; just short of a stone to the three expected to go off favorites.
This is a really tricky race to get ones head around. It’s gonna be really interesting.
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