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Sunday 19th November

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  • #2392
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    1.40 Towcester 2m5f Hdle £4,554

    This looks a weak race with 10yo Young Lorcan strangely installed tissue favourite even though he has been chasing on heavy ground for the past year. I believe Johnjo O’Neill’s  Money Line under J W Farrelly (7) can take this one as he should prefer trip over  the easier ground than his last outing at Exeter. He’s joint 3rd fav at 7s in the opening Betfair exchanges.

    <br>UR 9/2

    (Edited by zilzal at 6:30 pm on Dec. 19, 2006)

    #68337
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I just had the chance to look at one race. I try to look at why horses won’t win rather than why they will and then  make a book around it.

    1:00 Aintree

    No. Form Horse Trainer RTF %  Wgt Jockey  Tips TS RPR F’cst <br>1 1 Degas Art22   J Howard Johnson 45  3 11-6 P J Brennan  9 95 130 4/5 <br>2 2-1 Faucon Bleu23   Miss H C Knight 78  3 11-2 Timmy Murphy  1 105 116 9/2 <br>3 F Pouvoir29   A King 53  3 10-12 Robert Thornton   3/1 <br>4 22232 Tora Petcha38  R Hollinshead 50  3 10-12 Richard Johnson   108 109 33/1 <br>5 2 First Feerie18  Noel T Chance 100  3 10-5 W T Kennedy   55 114 7/1

    Distance – 16.5f

    Degas Art 16f<br>Faucon Bleu 16f 16f <br>Pouvoir 17f?<br>Tora Petcha 17f 17f 17f 18fx 16f*<br>First Feerie 17f*

    Impossible to know whether the distance is correct or not for Pouvoir but he was travelling nicely last time so I <br>assume its ok.

    Tora Petcha put in a substandard run when tried over 18f which suggests he found the distance too far. However both Tora Petcha and First Feerie were noted making good headway in races highlighted with a *.

    No horse can be eliminated therefore on the basis of distance.

    Going – Good (Likely to be Gd/Sft)

    Degas Art  Sft<br>Faucon Bleu  Hvy Sft<br>Pouvoir Gd<br>Tora Petcha  Gd Gd/Sft Gd/Fm Gd Gd/Fm<br>First Feerie Gd/Fm

    As all of the horses are lightly raced I don’t know about the horses preferences though Tora Petcha is proven on the going and conditions are likely to be similar to those Pouvoir faced over course and distance last time.

    The likely going raises a question about Degas Art and Faucon Bleu.However Degan Arts trainer Howard Johnson says: "Although he carries his head up he’s a very genuine horse, but he needs better going – he’s a good-ground horse".

    The horses breeding also supports the view he will better or at least as effective on better ground. Faucon Bleu could do with rain.

    The going is therefore a negative for Faucon Bleu as it stands.

    Form + Consistency

    Degas Art 122 (+-0) sole run<br>Faucon Bleu 104+4 (+-?) seems to be improving<br>Pouvoir ?<br>Tora Petcha 93+8 (+-2) Excellent Consistency. Does not seem to be improving<br>First Feerie 91+15 sole run

    On the basis of all known form Tora petcha is very likely to run to 93+8 but not behind it as he does not seem to be improving. This therefore rules him out of contention against potential improvers.

    Conclusions

    Based on all known evidence, Degas Art deserves to be favourite. The trip and ground are fine and the better ground should encourage improvement. It is also expected to improve for its first run given thats its jumping wasn’t particualry proficient and it raced keenly. Pouvoir is expected to develop into a nice horse, but its fall may have affected its confidence and others have achieved more, despite the horse’s potential.

    I would price this race up to a 100% accordingly:

    Degas Art 4/6<br>Pouvoir 6/1<br>First Feerie 6/1<br>Faucon Bleu 8/1<br>(Tora Petcha not considered for race – would be 100/1)

    Therefore at the forecast prices Degas Art and First Feerie represent marginal value. I compare my market and the real market for value tomorrow when betting markets open.<br>

    (Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 2:18 am on Nov. 19, 2006)

    #68339
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    The 2:00 at Aintree might not be as competetive as it looks.  The form of Ball O Malt‘s last 2 hurdle races is working out well and this horse can run well fresh. Backed him on the exchanges at 14/1 to win and 11/4 to be placed.

    #68344
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    14:35A

    1pt ew Eurotrek 25/1

    very smart stayer

    #68345
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Great choice FSL – must have given you a few scares towards the end!<br>

    #68347
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Yeah that one hit the spot SC thanks. I don’t have BBC in my room so I opened a browser window in the internet access part downstairs but couldn’t get any sound:( I thought going round the final 5f "I’m sure thats no 1 disputing the lead!" Ah yes the one that just made a copck-up of the fence and nearly unseated:biggrin:.

    In all fairness last year I tipped Eurotrek up for the national and said i thought it was a monster and looked like I right twit:) so its nice to kind of be proved right.

    Eurotrek Won @ 25/1

    Profit 31.25pts

    #68348
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    Very juicy, Flat!

    It helps when your claimer doesn’t fall out the side-door :(

     So it’ll be a Hot Scotch tonight, I suppose ;)

    #68351
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    It wouldn’t be my first choice zilzal but you know what these Scots are like.

    Its a day’s shopping tomorrow and a drink after.;)

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