Sunday 18th October – Preview

[Robert Gibbs]

A preview of the day’s action, point scale 0.5-5pt

Kempton

2:20 – Not many runners at Kempton today, but that doesn’t make the opener all that much easier. Alazan is too short, probably because of his connections. He didn’t do anything wrong last time at Worcester, but it’s only average form at best, and a few of these were of similar ability on the flat, he looks one to take on with his penalty. Mohanad ran well enough on his hurdling debut, form which has been boosted since, a strong gallop would suit him. Some Time Good looks the type to go well over obstacles, and his trainer is underrated, he looks likely to be a spot of value, as does Ashes Summer, who has showed up well in a couple of 1m4f maidens, and well have no trouble seeing out the trip.

Verdict – Lay Alazan @ up to 1.62 (to cover back stakes)- Back Ashes Summer @ 6.5 & bigger and Some Time Good @ 12 & bigger (1pt each)

2:50 – An interesting little novice chase,if a little disappointing quality wise. Bergo is an odds on favourite, and thats no great surprise. I would have concerns over the sharp 2m trip, and although open to more improvement,he was rated virtually the same as Nortonthorpe Lad over hurdles. Alison Thorpes runner has had a warm up run over hurdles at Market Rasen and he will expose any chinks in Bergos armour. Bunglasha Jake had only modest irish point form and failed to shine in 2 bumpers, whilst Stumped is a bonny little horse, but a class or two below this level. Allfortara shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand, she was keeping fair company over hurdles last term, and may well come into her own over fences.

Verdict – Back Nortonthorpe Lad @ 5 & bigger & Allfortara @ 20 & bigger (2pts & 0.5pt)

3:25 – Without much doubt, this is the race of the day. It’s pits a couple of very smart prospects against each other, and is effectively a match. Australia Day and Press The Button are of virtually identical ability on the flat and there doesn’t appear to be much between them over hurdles either. Australia Day was very impressive at Worcester and has since ran well on the flat. Press The Button has sailed around Huntingdon twice without any fuss and looks at home over obstacles. What makes this more fascinating is we all the two are ridden so very differently. Australia Day should ultimately get out in front, and the question is whether is will get caught. At the likely prices, Press The Button is the bet. I think it should be 6/4 each of two. I’m a little surprised connections weren’t tempted by a handicap from a mark of 124, which will have to rise if he gets the better of Paul Webbers grey. Whatever happens they may well be meeting again come Aintree next April, as that track would appear to suit both better than Cheltenham. Cootehill has done very well for connections, and whilst he is clear third best, he will do well to get in a blow here. Aather is capable of picking up a maiden hurdle, but isn’t up to this standard.

Verdict – Back Press The Button @ 2.7 & bigger (3pts win)

4:00 – Professor Higgins is a solid favourite, and will be hard to beat. He progressed last season, from looking like a frustrating and only modest chaser to winning his last 2 starts easily and looking to have bigger aspirations. He may well still be well treated off a mark of 115, having said all that, his price looks about right. At the prices I think the 2 outsiders are interesting. Green Gamble is 2 from 2 here, and needed his first start last season, he has conditions to suit. Elluvaparty made a winning chasing debut, but has had an interupted time of it since. He didn’t get home at Ascot on his final start last season, but it wasn’t a terrible effort and as he has gone well fresh in the past, it’s not impossible to see him figuring. I’d rather be backing those 2 than, King Brex, Ouste & Yawl Springs, who have just as many if not more if’s and but’s.

Verdict – Back Green Gamble @ 12’s & bigger and Eluvaparty @ 14’s & bigger (both 1pt)

4:35 – An interesting conditions’ hurdle. Red Maloney was a decent novice and is the likely market leader. He ran well at the festival before disappointing at Aintree. I thought connections might step him up in trip this year, and whilst he is the best long term prospect in the field, he might get outsped in the straight here. Noble Request looked to have a very bright future 3 seasons ago, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won this, but he looks plenty short enough all things considered. I can see why connections of Treaty Flyer are giving this a go. He’s in sparkling form and doesn’t have a great deal to find, he looks sure to run another good race, but may come up a little short. The veteran Alph won this 2 years ago at 25’s and was 3rd (one place ahead of Katies Tutor) at 40’s last year, both on his seasonal debut. He’s 12 now, but it would be folly to rule him out, as this years renewal is arguably weaker. Katies Tutor hasn’t been on his game this summer, but his runs haven’t been as bad as first appears, and he has the ability to figure. Medicinal was a fair chaser last term, and this looks like a pipe opener for him.

Verdict – Back Alph @ 12’s & bigger, and Katies Tutor @ 8’s & bigger (both 1pt)

5:10 – Basically a match, and one in which I expect The Big Orse to come out on top. He has some very good bumper/novice form and his last outing at Lingfield was particularly good in what was, I believe one of the better novices’ of the season. The trip and ground would appear to suit and he should have too much class for Balthazar King, who scrambled home at Ffos Las and has a rating of 110.

Verdict – Back The Big Orse @ 2’s & bigger (4pts)

5:40 – Not a great race to finish, although it may be worth taking on the likely front 2 in the market. Nagam has gone well fresh in the past, but he is very in and out, and doesn’t appeal as one to take a short price about. Ibberton is another who doesn’t run 2 races the same, and the form of the Alner team is a big concern. Top Dressing doesn’t appeal as being especially well handicapped and Nesnaas is woefully out of form. Thats leave Cold Mountain who has shown glimpes in his last 2 starts, that his turn could be around the corner, and Rudivale who hasn’t shown much over fences, but showed he is in fair form last time over hurdles, and hasn’t yet had this faster ground over the larger obstacles.

Verdict – Back Rudivale @ 8’s & bigger and Cold Mountain @ 9’s or bigger (both 1pt)

Fontwell

2:00 – Surprising not to see the word "selling" in the title here, for what is a shocking opener. Little Firecracker, Avoine and Albert Park will all be popular and are ok for placepots etc, but there is no real appeal in backing any of them at the likely odds to win. Ghaill Force ran a decent race last time in a similar event, has more natural ability than most of these, and if he can reproduce that, he should go close. An interesting one is Quaystone Lady who has shown a couple of times she has a race in her, and after seemingly not getting home over 3m of late, has dropped sharply to a mark of 71, she has a squeak at a big price.

Verdict – Back Ghaill Force @ 14’s & bigger and Quaystone Lady @ 25’s & bigger (both 0.5 pt)

2:30 – An average novice chase, and a worthy favourite in recent Ffos Las Victor Calusa Caldera. That was a strange and uncompetitive heat, but this isn’t any better and he will be hard to beat even with his penalty. I do however think that Pocket Aces might be a spot of value. He wasn’t short of ability over hurdles, and whilst he lost his way a little, he looks like a chaser, and has run well fresh in the past. Conditions should suit and he looks worth a bet against the favourite.

Verdict – Back Pocket Aces @ 6’s or bigger (2pts)

3:00 – Theres No Panic beat a couple of useful types despite running green on his debut last season. You would imagine he would be hard to beat in this. The likes of Blacktoft and Consulate set a fair standard, but Paul Nicholls charge probably has aspirations of being better than a 120 handicapper, in which case he should find this fairly straightforward. At odds-on however, he doesn’t appeal as one thats worth lumping on.

Verdict – No Bet

3:35 – A few old favourites in this, and a few characters among them. Tot Of The Knar is a frustrating type, although 2m6f around here should be ideal and there shouldn’t be any excuses. With plenty of pace of, it may be worth taking a small chance on I Hear Thunder, in the hope he is ridden with restraint,as was the case when he won over course and distance over the summer. His stablemate River Indus is also of interest, but he had a fairly hard race just 2 days ago at Cheltenham, which severely tempers enthusiasm.

Verdict – Back I Hear Thunder @ 14’s or bigger (0.5pt)

4:10 – Maybe not as competitive as it first appears. Kisha King has an obvious chance, but he could probably do with a bit further and has been off for a few months. Royal Kicks only has one win to his name for all that he has more ability than most of these, whilst Atlantic Jane has been off for an eternity. Senor Shane has to be respected, but of the leading fancies, my vote goes to The Chip Chopman, who ran well under similar conditions in a massive field last time, and looks on a good mark if he can build on that return to form. I think Dalaram is interesting because in theory the step up to this trip should suit, given that his prime he stayed 2m on the flat in top company, he has gone well fresh in the dim and distant past, any money for him would be significant. King Rocky is a complete rogue, but does have a little ability and this is the last time yours truly will be giving him an opportunity to show it.

Verdict – Back The Chip Chopman @ 6’s or bigger, and Dalaram @ 18’s or bigger and King Rocky @ 25’s or bigger (2pts, 1pt & 0.5pt)

4:45 – With Morestead in the field, you know there will be not hanging around. I like the top two here, Usrumman has been slipping down the weights and looks primed to take advantage, a good gallop should suit him. Whilst Thursday’s Knight has looked good on occasion over hurdles, and is potentially well treated on his chasing debut, in what is a modest contest.

Verdict – Back Usumman @ 9’s & bigger, and Thursday’s Knight @ 12’s & bigger (both 1pt win)

Southwell

2:10 – Demonstrative will probably break his maiden, but at odds-on at Southwell, he won’t be carrying my cash.

Verdict – No bet

2:40 – I have particularly strong views on this one. I like Blue Nymph who won well last time and is still improving. I also fancy Hindu Kush, the handicapper has dropped him quickly, and I have a suspicion he will act on the track. Dunaskin and Dart I wouldn’t rule out, but I’d want to be backing them at twice the likely odds they are going to go off at. Fin Vin De Leu to my mind is going the wrong way now, and will find this too much, whilst Feathered Crown only just won a modest maiden at Newmarket, and whilst I respect Mr Cecil, a step up in trip to 1m6f at Southwell, does look a strange move.

Verdict – Lay Fin Vin De Leu & Feathered Crown @ up to 5’s and Back Blue Nymph @ 3.5 or bigger and Hindu Kush @ 5’s or bigger (lay to cover back stakes, 2pts each)

3:15 – A very good race by Southwell standards. Having said that I’m struggling to find another worth backing. Lowther is interesting, he has had a busy time of it lately, but might still have more improvement in him. Were this over 7f I’d be more confident, and the last 100 yards might find him out. Nightjar looks sure to be thereabouts as does Collateral Damage, in truth it’s hard to dismiss anything, which is why I think laying the front 2 in the market is the way to go here.

Verdict – Lay Penitent & Sovereign Remedy @ combined odds at up to 3.5 (2pt)

3:50 – A bog standard 0-70 sprint and Simple Rhythm is the obvious choice. He did well on the wrong side at Brighton the other day and looks on good terms with himself still. Cayman Fox has speed to burn as well, and you wouldn’t want to get too far behind here. Danum Dancer was a good 2 year old, but has had all sorts of problems since, but did show a bit at Thirsk last time. He still possesses early toe, and if he takes to Southwell, he might go well at a price. First Order isn’t easy to predict, but he has gone well here in the past, and the make up of the race should suit him.

Verdict – Back First Order @ 16’s or bigger and Danum Dancer @ 18’s or bigger (0.5pt)

4:25 – A decent middle distance handicap, and the class horse is Snoqualmie Boy. He returned to form last time, but i have my suspicions that he won’t act around Southwell, due mainly to the fact he likes fastish ground on turf. Persian Peril would be the selection, but he is plenty short enough and this race is passed over from a punting perspective.

Verdict – No bet

5:00 – Not a great race, and old favourite Pawan has his most realistic assignment for a while. 6f around here is just about ideal and he should go close, but will he ever get his head in fron again?????? Dancing Maite likes the track and might be able to dominate, he has the right man on board, and ran well on turf last time. Ingleby Arch is the one who looks certain to figure, but looks high enough in the weights, whilst Lesley’s Choice needs to show last time wasn’t a one off.

Verdict – Back Pawan @ 12’s or bigger and Dancing Maite @ 12’s or bigger (1pt)

5:30 – This is all about Skysurfers. If he can ran to a mark of 65, he’ll win. If he can’t, he might find he’s not going to be housed in a plush newmarket stable for much longer. I’d be almost tempted to back him at a shade over odds-on, but thats not really my style, having said that lay him at your peril, the stable are in form and don’t have many who can’t run to a selling platers mark, even first time out at this gaff.

Verdict – No bet

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