Sunbury Stakes 2008

[Colin Little]

I still remember Bonus and Hayley Turner winning this race last year. At the weights, they should have won. The field looked fairly average that day, and Bonus probably had every right to out-class them, which he did. It looks as though they are going to try for a repeat victory. This year though, the race looks a lot more competitive.

Amongst the entries, there are really two main lines of form. Duff, Swiss Franc, Ceremonial Jade, Philario and Salsa Steps all contested the 6f Listed race at Lingfield a few weeks ago. While Mac Love, Confuchias, Red Alert Day, Al Muheer and Bonus all contested a race over C+D a month ago. Also entered is 7f Lingfield specialist Atlantic Story, and Finicius from Eire, who is 4 from 4 on the AW at Dundalk.

Imo, this has the makings of a very competitive race. There are some interesting match ups and posers. Will Confuchais get the better of Mac Love now they’re back over 7f; will Ceremonial Jade put last times bad run behind him, over a trip that may suit his style better; will Atlantic Story be able to be as impressive now he’s up in grade; or could Duff just out-class them all.

Probably best to wait for the final declarations and draw before getting too deep into it. Not bad for a Wednesday night at Kempton.

[Colin Little]

Final declarations, draw in brackets:

1 (10) Duff 5 9-4 K Manning
2 (1) Mac Love 7 9-4 M Fenton
3 (8) Al Muheer 3 9-2p M Dwyer
4 (12) Atlantic Story 6 9-2t H Turner
5 (6) Bonus 8 9-2b E Ahern
6 (4) Ceremonial Jade 5 9-2t J Egan
7 (7) Confuchias 4 9-2 J Crowley
8 (13) Finicius 4 9-2 F Berry
9 (3) Il Grande Maurizio 4 9-2t U Rispoli
10 (2) Orchard Supreme 5 9-2 R Hughes
11 (9) Red Alert Day 3 9-2 P Cosgrave
12 (11) Swiss Franc 3 9-2 G Baker
13 (5) Salsa Steps 4 8-11t S Drowne

Forecast: 4/1 Atlantic Story, 9/2 Finicius, 5/1 Mac Love, 6/1 Duff, 8/1 Ceremonial Jade, 10/1 Bonus, 12/1 Confuchias, 14/1 Swiss Franc, Il Grande Maurizio, 16/1 Red Alert Day, 25/1 Orchard Supreme, Salsa Steps, 33/1 Al Muheer

Not sure I’d have Finicius & Mac Love as short as that, and if he thinks Duff is a 6/1 shot, he’s been drinking too much of the stuff. Interesting that Hayley Turner is riding Atlantic Story for the first time, rather than Bonus.

There’s a shopping list of ones I really don’t fancy here, like Bonus, Mac Love, Swiss Franc & most of the bigger priced ones. I do like Duff, he’s got a good draw & I guess they will try to make all. He’s probably the best horse in the race, I think it’s all about getting the pace right with him. I’ve got the Lingfield regulars Atlantic Story and Ceremonial Jade in as second & third best. The other Irish horse, Finicius, is a bit of a conundrum though.

[blackfingernail]

atlantic story for me, i’d be happy with that 4/1 you chalked up.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Finicius and Duff on the shortlist for me with preferance for Finicius.

Finicius has been running very well on the AW at Dundalk. His form on the Aw reads 3 wins, 1 loss – the one loss being at 6f from the graveyard draw at Great Leighs.

Fran Berry travelling over specifically to ride this one is a big plus and Finicius carried a very big 9-12 on his last win at this trip!

Swiss Franc has good shouts for a place IMO

[Colin Little]

They were not my prices Blackfingernail, they were the ones that come with the racecard. I had Atlantic Story at a slightly bigger price when I had a go at the forecast. He has got a chance though, I could see him sitting in 2nd or 3rd against the rail, & if the leader buckles, he should be there.

I came down against Finicius eventually. Those wins at Dundalk whilst good, were not great races, and his Great Leighs run, where he was held up, is similar to the way he is sometimes raced in Eire. On a line through Arabian Gleam, imo Duff is a slightly better horse than Finicius, maybe not by much though. Although it was over a year ago, that Arabian Gleam/Duff race at Doncaster also had Mac Love in it, he finished quite a way back at level weights.

I did look at Swiss Franc, he certainly has the class to figure in a race like this. You could argue he may have needed the run at Lingfield as well. My concern was that he had never raced beyond 6f. If he gets the trip, he seems a fair enough gamble, at probably a big price. Not for me though.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Swiss Francs’ breeding does suggest that he would take to 7f though. I think the fact that Swiss Franc was 2nd behind in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot behind Henrythenavigator is one of the sways for me as to whether he’ll take to the distance. He hasnt really raced too much as a 3yo either which makes me feel there’s more improvement to come in distance.

I still prefer the other two though Swiss Franc for third for me…

Hmmm, I’m almost persuading myself into doing a one off tricast…

[Aragorn]

Colin, i’m with you on this one. He looks well in at the weights, is in good form, clearly handles the surface and Manning is booked to ride.

At the forecast prices he is definitely worth a decent punt.

[blackfingernail]

This atlantic story seems mighty short. i want to back it but you have to draw a line somewhere. i was hoping for 9/2 or 5/1, it’s a hot little race.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Finicius 8.0 on Betfair.

Thats too big for a proven 7F performer who carried 9-12 in his last win IMO

[blackfingernail]

you can get 9/1 with PP for finicus.

[halfwaytoheaven]

you can get 9/1 with PP for finicus.

9/1 and thats a Best Odds guarantee too isnt it? May have to take that..

Thanks for letting me know mate

[Anonymous]

Ile Grande Maurizio is a huge price in this, and has to be the each-way shout.
Winner on the AW in Italy from 2 previous winners, he started in this country off an OR of 95 and won comfortably enough, over a distance probably short of his best.
He was then absolutely murdered in Mac Love’s listed race, getting badly hampered and having to be switched inside, while MLhad flown from his outside perch, yet still managed to find the speed to pass a 1/3rd of the field for a strong finishing fifth.
Given a kinder run from what is probably a more helpful draw, he should surely be in the shake-up for tonight?

[Colin Little]

You may be right Reet. I was not too convinced about that Kempton race which Mac Love won. The time was only fair, and they all ended up falling over each other in the home straight. It made several of them look unlucky.

I’m with Duff, but this could go wrong for him, his jockey has got to get this pace spot on. Too slow and it will end up a sprint for the line. Too fast and he could get swallowed up close home. There’s some decent horses in here with a nice turn of foot.

I thought 4/1 for Duff was a very fair price. Maybe a touch over-priced, but I’d suggest you need that margin, in case it does go wrong for him.

I know Atlantic Story is a good horse on the polytrack, but he’s not a 3/1 shot, is he. I think you were right to leave him alone at that price, Blackfingernail.

[blackfingernail]

everyone in the town where i live has backed this duff, it’s going to go off about a 7/4 shot!. i’ve noticed badcrooks have been laying it all day on the internet tho @ 9/4 which is strange.

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