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Summer Hurdle 2009

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  • #12094
    graysonscolumn
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    • Total Posts 6964

    Long time since I’ve offered any advice in this part of the Forum, and usually with good reason! However, I’ve spent a bit of time looking into Summer Hurdles past, and can make a few observations about the 11 renewals since it was first run (albeit under another name) in 1998;

    – No horse not trained by Martin Pipe has been able to win making all, which isn’t good news for likely pacesetters Ellerslie Tom and Is It Me (who might slit each others’ throats in any event),

    – If the going has deteriorated to that extent by post time, 3 out of 4 winners on good to soft or worse won held up,

    – in the race’s history, 32 horses rated 129 or above have run, but only 2 of them have won and only 4 more have made the frame. Katie’s Tuitor’s win off 136 last year remains the highest winning mark ever, and he looks especially opposable from 14lb higher this time,

    – 6 wins and 11 other top three finishes since 1998 have gone to horses rated 114 to 128, but only one from out of the weights, which may count against the bottom four here,

    – although only 2 favourites have obliged in 11 runnings of the race, the other 9 winners have been sent off no worse than joint-fifth in the betting,

    – the last horse aged 8 or older to win was in 2001, since when that age group has garnered just 3 place finishes and no wins from 41 representatives. Treaty Flyer is the only horse that old this year,

    – no horse has ever won the race after a layoff of longer than April 1st that year. More bad news for Katie’s Tuitor!

    All of which is leading me towards the 127-rated seven year-old Toshi at present, though I wouldn’t want the ground to get too desperate for him. Silmi also appeals.

    Jeremy
    (graysonscolumn)

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #240312
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3140

    Don’t you bother with form then? :lol:

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