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I always find this race incredibly tricky to read, but no harm in looking……
The chances of St Gallen running a big race look obvious. Galway winner last summer, and coming here on a three timer, with Champion Jockey booked, he must have a live chance. Short enough though at this stage.
At the other end of the scale, I’m tempted to take a chance on All Yours at 40’s. Very good back in the day with Paul Nicholls, and slowly, very slowly, coming back to himself, certainly based on last run. He really does look to be getting a chance from the assessor, and I could see him giving a run for your money at 40’s.
Early fancies…
St Gallen 4’s
All Yours 40’s EWAnother good race, very nice renewal.
I don’t bet many horses with 1111111 form figures but I wonder if 141 underestimates Longhouse Sale. I really liked the ill-fated Santani (fancied he was 135+ himself) and Longhouse Sale just laughed at him at Ludlow. I fancy he’s more 151 than 141, although St Gallen is obviously still well-handicapped himself.
Of those at big prices, I’m tempted by Grapevine for the underrated Sophie Leech crew. Conor Brace already jocked-up and 20/1 looks a bit strong. He’s totally dependent upon a rattling fast surface but never got the conditions he needed when with Nicky Henderson aside from a ‘jumpers bumper’ win. I remember trading the novice hurdle he ran in at Kempton last March – there was an absolute avalanche of cash for him about an hour before the race. Then it POURED with rain, the ground changed and he disappointed. 115-7 is a nice hurdling mark for him in his ideal conditions, especially since he has been running well from marks around 80 of late on the flat for Charlie Hills. He isn’t the most fluent jumper but I think he’d be in the mix with a clear round.
Fransham, Ingleby Hollow and Nayati ought to be winning handicap hurdles from their current marks too. Belting race.
Couldn’t agree more, belting race indeed.
Usually at this stage I’d just jump in with both feet blind, and single one out, but it really is a total puzzle.
Grapevine an interesting one for sure, but if I’m honest I can see an angle with the majority of them.
Decided to go with All Yours, as Skybet are four places, though Unibet are holding the 40’s. I’ll have more on if he actually gets declared, when he’ll probably be 50’s with five places. Not jocked up yet, so not one to go mad on, but I’ll take a chance.
All Yours 33’s EW 4 Places
Well I at least got one call right on this, All Yours out to 50’s, though just to the four places, not the five.
I did say main bet would be after final decs, so probably going in again. For some reason.
All Yours 50’s EW 4 Places
Have had a punt on two 14/1 shots in this. Not at all confident but had to have a bet.
VALENTINO DANCER and DINO VELVET
Good Luck Folks
Very fearful of the ground beginning to turn here but have chipped away at everything 40+ on Betfair on Grapevine. Happy to play win-only as think he’s fairly polarised between winning and running terribly.
Nayati at around 20-1 for me. He’s maybe not good enough to get his head in front, but I think that he has an each way squeak here.
He’s a bit in and out, more out than in of late, but if John Constable can run
anywhere near his best he’d have a great chance here. Showed a bit of promise
recently in the Swinton, I’ve taken the 16s.Superb stuff LS, you were bang on the money there. I hope you dived in
to everything 40/1 +
Thanks all! Really nice winner that – hoovered up quite a bit on the machine at 40+ the night before and just before the off. Was first leg of a trixie as well but sadly Heydour and Real Warrior did not fancy knocking a couple of years off my retirement age.
When they turned for home I was cursing myself for playing win-only as a never-nearer 3rd looked a big possibility, but Brace delivered him beautifully. I think Grapevine might be underrated next time as well. That was a smart effort coming from the back off what looked like a pretty steady gallop.
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