Summer Holiday System

[Anonymous]

Evening guys

New user here and only 16, so go easy on me

Seeing as I have a lot of spare time, I have been trying a few systems and trying to modify them to get a better strike rate. I’ve tested them using Adrian Massey’s database and the one I’ve gone for has around a 40% SR if all goes well

So, here are the rules

NATIONAL HUNT RACES ONLY
NON HANDICAP RACE
AGE BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCLUSIVE
IGNORE HORSES THAT HAVE RACED JUST ONCE
IGNORE HORSES THAT HAVEN’T RACED UNDER NH RULES
IGNORE MARES
HAS TO BE FAV. JFAV. OR 2ND FAV.[/color:1rxzcd75]

This system usually works better at particular racecourses, but seeing as there are no meetings at these courses tomorrow (today really) I will give my selections and see how they do.

Kilbeggan 17-35 Imperial Shabra @ 7/2 2ndF
Kilbeggan 19-05 Carsonstown Boy @ 5/2F
Killarney 19-50 Belville Boy @ 5/2 2ndF

Note : These selections are picked using betting forecasts, which is a bad idea.. But I wanted to post it and see how it got on. I might edit it closer to the off, which is the best time to make your selections.

Like I said, this is my first post but I look forward to interacting with you guys who will undoubtedly have more knowledge of horses than me

[Matron]

Welcome to "TRF" and good luck with your system.

Regards

[billion]

RapsonS

You sound a very well equipped young fella’ for only 16 and wish you well and will follow your selections with interest.

You know at the tender age of 16 you should be out there chasing 16 year old girls but perhaps the 4 legged fillies are not so high maintenance

Billy's Outback Shack

[Mushroom77]

ran somrthing similar through horseracebase.com

Race Category -National Hunt
Favourite -Favourites J-Favs Co Favs
H’cap or non – Non Handicaps
Horse Age –
Between 3 and 7 years old
H-Runs- Between 1 and 219
Sex of Horse- Male

5578-13706 40.70%
SP_PL -811.86
ROI -5.92%

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the kind words guys

@Billion My 16 year old girl is on holiday, thank god!

[billion]

Just as long as she has not taken your money with her

RapsonS

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Have sent you a pm, check your mail

RapsonS

Check them at the top right of screen.

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

I still chase 16 year old girls but I’ve forgotten why!

RapsonS

You sound a very well equipped young fella’ for only 16 and wish you well and will follow your selections with interest.

You know at the tender age of 16 you should be out there chasing 16 year old girls but perhaps the 4 legged fillies are not so high maintenance

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[billion]

Billy's Outback Shack

[Anonymous]

Kilbeggan 17-35 Imperial Shabra

WON @ 7/2 2ndF

Kilbeggan 19-05 Carsonstown Boy

LOST @ 5/2F

Killarney 19-50 Belville Boy

So, not a bad start to the system, a 50% strike rate. Imperial Shabra won by a clear 3 or 4 lengths.
Will post my selections for tomorrow later.

[Anonymous]

Saturday 21st August

Newton Abbot 1410 Beyond
Perth 1500 Duty Free
Market Rasen 1720 Sassanian (Doubtful)
Market Rasen 1750 Favours Brave

Perth is a top performer on this system, so I expect Duty Free to go well.

[billion]

That’s a good start

RapsonS

, if you compound the profits you might be a millionaire by the time you are 21.

Billy's Outback Shack

[nedloh]

Hi RapsonS,
I ran your filters through Massey and every year since 2000 has shown a loss!!.Are you using any other filters not stated.
Correct me if I’m wrong, a horse has to have run at least twice and at least one of those runs has to be under NH rules.
Its possible to have 2 selections in the same race, do you just back one or both?.
Anyway I wish you the best, and just to say don’t get hung up on trying to get a high % strike rate. The higher the strike rate the harder it is to make profits.
Best wishes Frank

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the advice nedloh, I appreciate any tips the more experienced guys have to offer me.

Very close today.

Newton Abbot 1410 Beyond

Perth 1500 Duty Free

2nd @ 13/8F

Market Rasen 1720 Sassanian (Doubtful)

N/R

Market Rasen 1750 Favours Brave

[Anonymous]

22nd August selections

Newton Abbot 1400

Scene Two

Newton Abbot 1430

Coeur de Lionne

Newton Abbot 1500

Gee Dee Nen

All go at Newton Abbot. I may even go and watch them. I get in for free and it’s only about 20 minutes away from my house

[nedloh]

Hi RapsonS,
Why isn’t the 5.00 race counted, it’s a NH flat race so not a Handicap. Also what site are you using for your tissue prices.
Thanks

[billion]

2nd’itis kicks in I am afraid

RapsonS

and is something we have all suffered with.

I have a theory and will be interested to hear others thoughts regarding it.

Favourites and top rated are so because they are assessed at the top of their form and being so, have only one way to go (more often than not) which is backward.

We are lead to believe Favourites win on average up to 40% of races and so this if turned round will mean 6 from 10 lose.

Then, so called top rated again lose as many as they are expected to win, at least that is my gut feeling as I do not have any quoted stats.

Could this be the result of

RapsonS

2 x seconds?

I have a good friend who will only ever bet the favourite, he selects the type of race i.e. Non Handicap/ Sprint/ No. declared, sadly I am not such a good friend that he will tell me all but having found his races (plural) enters them on his betting slip as un-named favs. in multiples, doubles, Trixie and Yankee’s and claims he makes it pay.

This theory goes along with the theories so often claimed on forums, such as, A) you cannot EVER win backing favourites alone. Or bring B) into play and compound your winnings into multiples when backing favourites in order to get a value price.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

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