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Not often I’m in agreement with Barrington Dennis, but some of the posters above must have come down with the last shower of rain.
You could not be more wrong with your snide comment and you obviously do not understand horse racing.
There have been much higher profile near post time drifts involving much larger sums of money on the exchanges in recent weeks, By Command and Hardasun are 2 good examples, both ran shockers, nobody said anything.
Personally i did not see the race or the betting patterns,
However like him or not McCririck is good for racing. The vast majority of punters I would suggest think he his good and he sayes what the majority do not but what the ordinary betting shop punter would think or would like to be said.
The example on here about the horse drifting and rearing up in the stalls I would suggest the majority of betting shop punters would say that it was a bent/fixed race.
Having been a member on the TRF for several months and having been at times been subjected to abuse by members who think racing is 100% genuine, I welcome people like Mc Cririck who stick up for the ordinary punter who whn said and done keeps the industry going.
Lets not forget that without the betting public there would be no racing.
At the end of the day racing is corrupt, it always has been and most probably always will be. To what extent is anybodys guess and i hope it is only minimal but I have my doubts.
I no longer bet on horse racing because of the above.However I still enjoy watching it.
We should have more McCriricks.
Personally I find racing the only the sport that when a jockey rides a bad race they get defended by the so called racing corrspondents /presenters with the possible exception of Matt Chapman ATR who make excuses.
Any other sport and you would get a right slating in the press and on TV, but no not jockeys.
In another 10-15 years if it continues the way it is going it will become a minority sport with little if any press coverage and only a hardened following
Bring on Euro 2008, at least everybody will be trying and keep on going McCririckPersonally i did not see the race or the betting patterns,
However like him or not McCririck is good for racing. The vast majority of punters I would suggest think he his good and he sayes what the majority do not but what the ordinary betting shop punter would think or would like to be said.
The example on here about the horse drifting and rearing up in the stalls I would suggest the majority of betting shop punters would say that it was a bent/fixed race.
Having been a member on the TRF for several months and having been at times been subjected to abuse by members who think racing is 100% genuine, I welcome people like Mc Cririck who stick up for the ordinary punter who whn said and done keeps the industry going.
Lets not forget that without the betting public there would be no racing.
At the end of the day racing is corrupt, it always has been and most probably always will be. To what extent is anybodys guess and i hope it is only minimal but I have my doubts.
I no longer bet on horse racing because of the above.However I still enjoy watching it.
We should have more McCriricks.
Personally I find racing the only the sport that when a jockey rides a bad race they get defended by the so called racing corrspondents /presenters with the possible exception of Matt Chapman ATR who make excuses.
Any other sport and you would get a right slating in the press and on TV, but no not jockeys.
In another 10-15 years if it continues the way it is going it will become a minority sport with little if any press coverage and only a hardened following
Bring on Euro 2008, at least everybody will be trying and keep on going McCririckMost betting shop punters want to believe the game is bent because then it is not their own fault for backing the wrong horses. Just because some mug punters might think stupid thoughts does not mean they should be aired on TV.
Comments like McCrirricks should only be made only if there is evidence. It gives the wrong impression of racing to many viewers.
So someone who has not seen the race says McCrirrick was right to say what he did about said race.
Nobody is saying the game is 100% straight but it is much straighter than betting shop punters believe. If it were bent then form students (without inside info) could not make a profit.
You say racing is corupt, where is your evidence? You’ve got no idea mate.
Jockeys make mistakes like the rest of us, they are criticised for that by most presenters. Lydia, Mellish, Cunningham etc. do a great job analysing rides without going over the top like McCrirrick who wants to be both judge and jury. His often used words "someone knew something" or " Ladbrokes knew", again gives the impression of skulduggery. In 99% of cases all that is happening is the market finding it’s level. Or one bookies odds compiler having a better opinion about a runner than the others. "Someone knew something" may be correct but it gives the wrong slant to it.
Mark
Value Is EverythingMark,
You miss the point. When you say that racing is not 100% straight then you clearly agree that it is corrupt.
The vast majority of people that fund the game are your ordinary betting shop punters and McCririck is just airing what they think.
It does not need McCririck to harm racing, the authorities do that themselves.
You seem to suggest that form students make a living. I would like to know how many or has a percentage of the betting public make money from gambling on horse racing. I would suggest that it is people in the know which I would suggest is corrupt as they are gaining an advantage on your ordinary betting shop punter.
From what I read in the press people who make a crust generally get banned by the bookies or get a limited amount of money on.
I have to say that Mellish, Cunningham etc very rarely say anything bad about poor irdes by jockeys, they tend to make excuses for the jockey.
It never ceases to amaze me how many times jockeys get boxed in on the flat when the course may be 20- yards wide and the presenters stae how unlucky they have been.
No Idea,
Dictionary definition of Corrupt: Rotten, depraved, venal.
"Racing" is the whole lot, all the trainers, jockeys, owners, everyone.
It is clear that one or two might be corrupt, but to label all of "racing" as corrupt is clearly wrong and unfair to "racing". The vast majority of racing people are trustworthy, honourable people.
Using your definition every big orgaisation will be corrupt, it is bound to have one or two bad apples.
There are many punters who like to think themselves form students but few really are. Unless they buy form books (not just the Racing Post) and understand odds converted to percentages (sorry to mention that again), they have little chance of making a profit.
Those "in the know punters" must know about all runners in a race to realise value / profit.
Presnters usually make excuses about jockeys when excuses are there to be made. Unless a punter knows the temperament and requirements of each horse (which very few betting shop punters do) he is likely to come to the wrong conclusions about a ride.
Mark
Value Is EverythingThere have been much higher profile near post time drifts involving much larger sums of money on the exchanges in recent weeks, By Command and Hardasun are 2 good examples, both ran shockers, nobody said anything.
Have only just seen this. Given the context of the races, wouldn’t you expect a pair of pattern races to attract much more turnover than a two-bit 2-y-o maiden on the sand. Although By Command did drift originally, he was backed right back in. I think the horse was generally a 4/1 shot in the morning and went off with an SP of 9/2 and a betfair SP of 5.83.
- Total Posts 17716
Firefox
Gingertipster perseveres under the illusion that his way is the only way and, as a result, thinks everyone has to approach the subject in the same manner as him.
The truth is there is a wealth of information available for free, certainly enough for any punter to form their own conclusions – and have enough confidence in them not to have to pay for 2nd and 3rd opinions.
Imo discipline – or value – certainly is not everything, but ability to read and understand form (from whatever source) is a pretty basic requirement, and one that is too often overlooked in seeking answers elsewhere.Unless they buy form books (not just the Racing Post)
Why do you say that? The paper copy of RP is one thing, and the information therein limited, however you have the online version which pretty much most people can access free if they want to. Both versions offer access to form figures produced by racing professionals, such as RPR and Topspeed.
Are Timeform or Raceform ratings going to be so massively different from RPRs or ORs so as to be the difference between making a profit or a loss from betting? I doubt it very much.
Are you saying RP (paper and online) coupled with ATR and a Setanta subscription are not enough for someone to make a profit from betting? I would beg to differ, and I think you are making it seem as if there is some big mystery to it all. The real key, which few of us punters have, is discipline. All the timeforms and raceforms in the world are useless if you cannot display discipline.
I think a punter who just reads the Racing Post or their website will struggle to produce an accurate 100% book. Do not say it is impossible, just very, very difficult and would probably take too long. I find Timeform more accurate than Topspeed and RP ratings but that is only my opinion. The ratings are different enough to make a difference and it is their analysis I find so useful. There is no “mystery” but I do think those who have not sampled the Perspective do not know what they are missing. I could not do what I do without Timeform but agree dicipline is so important, you certainly need that. Others may be able to make a profit without a good form book but I can not.
Mark
Value Is EverythingFirefox
Gingertipster perseveres under the illusion that his way is the only way and, as a result, thinks everyone has to approach the subject in the same manner as him.
The truth is there is a wealth of information available for free, certainly enough for any punter to form their own conclusions – and have enough confidence in them not to have to pay for 2nd and 3rd opinions.
Imo discipline – or value – certainly is not everything, but ability to read and understand form (from whatever source) is a pretty basic requirement, and one that is too often overlooked in seeking answers elsewhere.Reet,
I am under no illusion, as I have said countless times, there are many ways to find value, but the only way to make a profit is to find value. That is not opinion that is fact.
As you may use different things to come to your own conclusions, I use (amongst other things) Timeform to come to mine.
Certainly I agree, you need to be able to read and understand form.Mark
Value Is EverythingFirefox
Gingertipster perseveres under the illusion that his way is the only way and, as a result, thinks everyone has to approach the subject in the same manner as him.
The truth is there is a wealth of information available for free, certainly enough for any punter to form their own conclusions – and have enough confidence in them not to have to pay for 2nd and 3rd opinions.
Imo discipline – or value – certainly is not everything, but ability to read and understand form (from whatever source) is a pretty basic requirement, and one that is too often overlooked in seeking answers elsewhere.Reet,
I am under no illusion, as I have said countless times, there are many ways to find value, but the only way to make a profit is to find value. That is not opinion that is fact.
As you may use different things to come to your own conclusions, I use (amongst other things) Timeform to come to mine.
Certainly I agree, you need to be able to read and understand form.Mark
Complete and utter rubbish Mark.
The odds on picking all six numbers in the English lottery are near to 12,000,000/1 – yet a £1 stake sometimes wins you less than a million. This is far from being value, but believe me it’s a profit!
You need to think again Mark and refrain from saying that it is a fact that the only way to make a profit is to find value – because it isn’t a fact, it’s just your opinion.
A friend of mine backs Sir Mark Prescott horses only. As you know, backing a said horse is in the main far from a value option – but this friend of mine has had two bets this flat season and has had two winners. Ok, it might be lucky that he has avoided the losers and only backed the winners, but despite not getting value, he has made a profit.
As much as I respect your opinions about value, it isn’t the only way to make a profit. And of course, this is just my opinion and not fact
Mike
Mike,
Of course anyone can be “lucky” and have one big win on the lottery, Scoop 6, jackpot etc. that pays for every other bet a punter has had. But we are talking about taking luck out of the equation. There is always the possibility of one big bet that wins, paying for everything else, but this again would be luck. For a punter to find one horse at say 8/1 he piles in for, for that particular 8/1 shot to win out of all the other 8/1 shots he backs is luck.It is possible to get value and make a profit by backing any one trainer exclusively, if you are selective which horse to back. Though two winners from two proves nothing. Any punter who has just a few bets a season can be “lucky” and make a profit. The fewer bets the more luck can come in to things, the more bets the less luck comes in to it.
But if someone is looking to bet often and for profit the only way is to obtain value. If you allow me to explain this again (sorry Reet).
So if we take luck out of it entirely and have level stakes….
If a punter wins 25% of his 3/1 bets he breaks even.
If he wins more than 25% he makes a profit.
Less than 25% he makes a loss.
With level stakes it is impossible to make a profit on 3/1 bets unless you win more than 25% FACT. So the only way to make a profit is to get value, better than 25% strike rate at 3/1, 32% at 85/40, 12.5% at 7/1 etc.The only way a punter can make a profit is to obtain value (excluding luck). There are many ways for a punter to find that value, not just the way I do it.
It is possible to get value without looking for it, if a punter finds something not many others take in to account, where bookmakers / exchange layers consistently under estimate their chance. So he can make a profit without actively searching for value, but value is what he gets.Strike rate in relation to average priced winner is what counts.
If a punters average priced winner is 3/1 he needs a strike rate of better than 25% to get value / to make a profit.Sorry to make another post about value but could not answer Mike’s point without doing so.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGinge – I’ve only had 6 bets in the last 3 weeks…..and they’ve all been less than 2/1. They’ve all won. Does that represent value?
Ginge – I’ve only had 6 bets in the last 3 weeks…..and they’ve all been less than 2/1. They’ve all won. Does that represent value?
Well done,
Too small a sample to say for certain mate, but encourageing anyway.Mark
Value Is EverythingFirefox,
I see you say New Approach at 3/1, will presume you meant 5/1 as that is the price currently available.
New Approach may have group 1 form and so far is the class horse in the race, with excellant mile and a half breeding. But that does not (imo) mean he is certain to stay. Often an enthusiastic front runner at a mile does not stay as far as breeding suggests. Only in the Dewhurst has he not front run, it may be that racing prominently is important to him. Had a hard race in Ireland on firm ground that he did not like. Can not believe did not come back feelingly just 10 days ago. His well known quirks may not suit Epsom, which is (imo) the real reason Bolger did not want to run there. Having said that, does not seem so quirky these days. It is also possible the horse’s temperament will suffer after not enjoying his racing last time.I did have a couple of quid on New Approach earlier, when Bolger "forgot" to take New Approach out of the race. Bolger’s attacking policy, racing his stars more frequantly than other top trainers and Sheikh Mohammed’s hands on approach always thought there was a strong possibility he would line up. But now do not consider him value.
Here are my prices to beat (100% book) for good-soft, good places.
Casual Conquest 23% 100/30
Curtain Call 12.5% 7/1
New Approach 11.75% 15/2
Tajaaweed 11.75% 15/2
Tartan Bearer 11.75% 15/2
Doctor Freemantle 7.75% 12/1
Bronze Cannon 5.25% 18/1
Frozen Fire 5% 20/1
Kandahar Run 2% 50/1
Rio De La Plata 2% 50/1
Alesandro Volta 2% 50/1
King Of Rome 2% 50/1
River Proud 1.5% 66/1
Washington Irving 1.5% 66/1
Bourguereau 0.125% 800/1
Bashkirov 0.1% 1000/1
Alan Devonshire 0.05% 2000/1
Maidstone Mixture No priceactually it’s 100.025%
Curtain Call’s percentage would increase on softer ground plus a few other changes.
I make Casual Conquest at 4/1, Tajaaweed at 10/1 and Bronze Cannon at 33/1 currently value.
Value Is Everything
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