Still alive and kicking

[Matron]

Good warning Brico,

That stick will going places it shouldn’t be going to!

Regards – Matron

[MrE]

Yeah, yeah….. go on Matron, take his temperature…. you know where that thermometer goes cos you had piles of practice with old Urby from way back….. I think young Brico’s catching a fever….. they do say that a good massage will make the fever dissipate, but slowly, you have got to do it slowly……

MrE

[Bricoman]

Yesterday’s sinkers…

Feisty Royal 3.15 matched…2nd 2.75 @ SP…Handsome Cross 6.40 Not matched…10th 5.00 @ SP…Spiritual Peace 5.20 Not matched…4th 3.50 @ SP…Jilly Why 6.00 matched…4th 5.00 @ SP

Betting@SP: 66 bets, 30.30% s/r, -17.42% roi, -24.63% rooi
Exchanges: 45 bets, 31.11% s/r, 7.55% roi, 11.14% rooi

Today’s sinkers:

2.10 Sand [4] Hunt the Bottle…Offer range 2.44 – 2.18…RP f/c 1.91
3.05 Utto [1] The Wicketkeeper…Offer range 12.00 – 8.25…RP f/c 4.50
3.30 Bath [8] Piano Man…Offer range 6.80 – 5.90…RP f/c 5.00
3.55 Sand [3] Moon Valley…Offer range 7.20 – 5.80…RP f/c 4.50
4.30 Sand [8] Brief Goodbye…Offer range 15.00 – 13.62…15.00 matched…RP f/c 15.00
5.55 Utto [3] Delayed Approach…Offer range 3.35 – 3.25…RP f/c 3.25

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

The losing run continues…
That’s 204 bets @ SP since the 26th May….75 winners…129…losers and a strike rate of 36.76%. I’m concerned about the number of big price selections over the last fortnight…these have helped push the s/r down from 40% to it’s present level of 28.17% (July). The weather hasn’t helped but I don’t think I can blame it all on the weather or non-runners or abandonments.

The present losing run stands at 12…which is the maximum predicted for the number of bets v overall strike rate. I will continue with these picks until the last day of July, and will do a final update of the stats on the 1st August.

Hunt the Bottle 2.18…Not matched…3rd 1.73 @ SP…The Wicketkeeper 11.00…PU 9.00 @ SP…Piano Man 5.00…11th 4.50 @ SP…Moon Valley 7.00…10th 8.00 @ SP…Brief Goodbye 15.00 accepted…32.4% r.f. on 3 n/r’s giving imposed odds of 10.49…6th 13.00 @ SP…Delayed approach 3.25 accepted…Abandoned due to water-logging.

July Update:

Betting@SP: 71 bets, 28.17% s/r, -23.24% roi, -35.33% rooi
Exchanges: 49 bets, 28.57% s/r, -1.37% roi, -2.20% rooi

Today’s Bets:

2.10 Asco (2) Albabilia…Odds range 7.75 – 6.88…RP f/c 6.00
4.30 Asco (5) Speedy Sam…Odds range 11.75 – 10.50…RP f/c 13.00

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Twighlight zone or what?…A winning horse after the 12th losing bet… …Either the jocky or the horse had a calculator MrE…
Albabilia 7.70 – 6.90…Not matched…was at 7.60 all afternoon but I left it until the last 10 minutes and couldn’t even get 6.90…WON 5.50 @ SP…Speedy Sam 13.50…matched…4th 11.00 @ SP.

July Update:

Betting@SP: 73 bets, 28.77% s/r, -17.81% roi, -27.84% rooi
Exchanges: 50 bets, 28% s/r, -3.37% roi, -5.53% rooi

Doesn’t matter how I bet on the exchanges…I either take the odds too early and take a hit with n/r’s or miss out by leaving it too late…inexperience, I guess.

Today’s bets:

1.25 Newm (5) Fifteen Love 2.17…RP f/c 1.67
3.15 York (5) Take a Bow 10.70…RP f/c 11.00
3.30 Newm (4) Tagula Sunrise 7.00…RP f/c 6.00
5.30 York (2) Dzesmin 6.00…RP f/c 7.00

Regards

Brico

[MrE]

Hi Brico….. n/runners are a pain in the butt if you have your bets on with Betfair, I have not known any bookies with such damaging reductions…. I had a bet on to win £90 on Menadha today (Saturday)…. it d/heated AND there was a couple of withdrawals, and I ended up with poxy £25 in winnings…. really dire…. Ok, I expected to lose half cos of the d/heat, so I’d have been happy with the £45 but another reduction on top ended up giving me 5/4…… Betfairs reduction policy is a bit drastic……
With regard to your losing run, it is to be expected…. any system will have its losing runs and that is why staking methods and bank protection are the first things you have to master….. you will play with hundreds of methods of selection over the years, but if you want to stay in the game, you need to plan your betting down to the last penny…… it just aint good enough to get "value", you must have value of course, but staking is tops……. that is providing that you have a sensible selection method, if you aint, then even staking correctly isn’t going to help…….
You’ve been doing reasonably well up to now, this is probably just a blip, and the weather has been the pits, so if your system is based on form or time, you can take it all with a pinch of salt because we aint had Summer racing this bad for as long as I can remember…… keep the faith Brico….

MrE

[Bricoman]

Cheers MrE…It’s hard to know what to do regarding Betfair…the losing run has been longer than at sp because of the uncertainty in getting a bet on…so I’ve missed a few winners. I suspect if you worked out a price and stuck it on 30 minutes before the off, you would miss most of the n/r’s in the day. It hasn’t helped with me keep changing the odds within a predetermined range…anyway I will be dumping this system after 31st July…due to me starting my holiday on Saturday.

Fifteen Love 1.67…Not matched…WON 1.40 @ SP….Take a Bow 12.00…3rd 10.00 @ SP…Tagula Sunrise 7.00…Not matched…8th 5.50 @ SP…Dzesmin 6.00…2nd 6.00 @ SP

July Update:

Betting@SP: 77 bets, 28.57% s/r, -20.26% roi, -33.40% rooi
Exchanges: 52 bets, 26.92% s/r, -7.14% roi, -12.20% rooi

Today’s bets:

2.05 Pont (5) Lecanvey 7.38…RP f/c 5.00
4.55 Pont (6) Pearl 4.75…RP f/c 3.00
5.15 Carl (6) War Anthem 6.25…RP f/c 3.50

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

All 3 selections lost yesterday but I couldn’t get a match on any of them…Lecanvey 7.40…4th 4.50 @ SP…Pearl 4.80…4th 3.75 @ SP…War Anthem 6.20…3rd 2.75 @ SP.

Betting@SP: 80 bets, 27.50% s/r, -23.25% roi, -39.83% rooi
Exchanges: 52 bets, 26.92% s/r, -7.14% roi, -12.20% rooi

The penultimate day…

3.30 Yarm (12) Rosy Alexander 2.08…RP f/c 1.73
4.00 Yarm (8.) Mugeba 8.40…RP f/c 6.50
4.15 Wolv (5) Marko Jadeo 18.00…RP f/c 21.00
5.00 Yarm (1) Ahlawy 11.00…RP f/c 10.00

Will be leaving it until the final 15 minutes or so before placing any bets.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Rosy Alexander…revised to 1.96 after n/r deduction of 5.6%…WON 1.83 @ SP…Mugeba…N/R…Marko Jadeo 18.00…7th 11.00 @ SP…Ahlawy 11.00…Not Matched…2nd 4.00 @ SP

July Update:

Betting@SP: 83 bets, 27.71% s/r, -23.82% roi, -42.33% rooi
Exchanges: 54 bets, 27.78% s/r, -7.04% roi, -12.49% rooi

Last bets on this system:

2.35 Beve (11) Tarkheena Prince 4.00…RP f/c 3.25
5.05 Good (12) Paveroc 4.80…RP f/c 4.50

Back tomorrow with final update

Regards

Brico

[Pompete]

Bricoman…this has been an interesting, informative and entertaining thread…well done mate and as Mr Ed said ‘keep the faith’.

[Bricoman]

Thanks for those kind words Pompete…With MrE around it’s bound to be entertaining…

Hoped to go out with a double… …No chance…Tarkheena Prince 4.00…7th 3.75 @ SP…Paveroc 5.80…6th 5.00 @ SP

Final Update:

Betting@SP: 85 bets, 27.06% s/r, -25.61% roi, -46.62% rooi
Exchanges: 56 bets, 26.79% s/r, -10.40% roi, -19.16% rooi

As you can see from the strike rate in July there have been too many long priced horses to get anywhere near the 40% I was hoping for. It all started going pear shaped on the 13th July, so the last 2 – 3 weeks have seen a nose dive for any profits that had been gained in the previous month. If I had introduced a filter regarding a forecast price range then the damage wouldn’t have been as excessive.

I quite like the idea of using the exchanges to maximize any value that there may be. So I will continue to look and learn in that direction…might even have a look at the place betting stategy.

I’d just like to say a BIG THANKYOU to everyone who has contributed to this thread. I hope we have all gained from the experience…

See you all again soon.

Regards

Brico

[dave jay]

Cheers Brico .. a good read !!

[MrE]

Yeah, don’t leave us Brico, we need at least two of us to gang up on Matron…. I cant take many more of those electric shocks to my nodules, although that is moderately enjoyable when weighed up against the crocodile clips on the nipples…… ooooh Matron……
As regards to your system…. all systems go through bad spells and this last 2 to 3 weeks has been terrible for horse racing with most of the racing taking place underwater, I dont think the trainers have quite got the hang of getting their horses to wearing snorkels…… you do need a very satisfactory method to keep any system on an even keel and thats where all the hard work comes in….. and you are correct in thinking of looking at getting selections placed….. the odds are crap, but providing you can get the strike rate, you will make money….. nobody on here is gonna help you with a system, I learned that long ago, if these guys have got anything good, they’re gonna keep it to themselves…. but what TRF does is to give you the encouragement to continue and Dave Jay will always be on hand to advise on staking….. don’t give up Brico….. I’ll be willing to give you a starter on the place bets and you can get a shortlist from that, but it would be up to you to find your own filters…… thats gonna give you summat to get your teeth into when you get back from your holidays….. enjoy ’em mate…. its great having a break from these nutters in Ward 7, they’re all daft in here…….

MrE

[Matron]

Keep going Brico – things, do change around with systems.

You are quite right MrE, there a few "shrewdies" on TRF but, they never even give us the crumbs from the table!

Seriously, you can’t blame them; why rock the boat – you don’t bite the hand that feeds you.

Anyway, back to to the day job.

See you later.

Regards – Matron

[snowman]

Been fun Brico, enjoyed the thread – so happy to see Ward 7 hasn’t completely lost the will to live! Popped in 5 or 6 months ago and thought it was on its last legs, but just amazing what matron can do with a cattle prod and a bit of ‘leccy.

Have nice hols speak soon

[MrE]

Hey Brico you old git, where are you hiding….. sheeeesh, thats a long holiday, you must be doing OK if you can take all of August off…. whats your secret….. have you given Matron anything special (if you’ll pardon the expression)…… 28 days is the maximum home leave allowed from this asylum, if your late coming back, Matron will instruct Nurse Ratchet to whup your bot with wet towels….. not nice Brico…. it smarts a bit when Matron rubs that Vaseline on…… ooooohhhhh, just thinking about it makes my eyes water….. C’mon Brics, where are you ????……

MrE

[Bricoman]

Hi MrE,

Got a pink slip off Matron so I don’t need to call in every day…Mrs Brico and the Brico kids have been too demanding of my time lately so unable to give the Gee Gees my full attention…

Good to hear from you again..started a new system so just monitoring the progress on paper before making a complete fool of myself and posting it up.

Had a great time in Porlock (no rain)…Those hills can be a bit tricky when you’re sober…

Catch you later

Bricoman

[Author]

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