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Today’s bets:
5.00 Leic (6) King Joshua 8.40…RP f/c 9.00
5.10 Hami (9) Loulwa 1.62…RP f/c 1.50
5.20 Cart (1) Edas 3.20…RP f/c 2.63Brico
Yeeeeaaaaahhhh….. its nice to see young Snowflake showing his face again….. how are you Snowy????…..
Not much coming from me at the moment, the weather’s turned crap again, we’ve got thunder and lightning and torrential rain tonight….. more expected in the morning….. can’t be bothered to have a serious bet in this weather…. I bet a GG today that was a fair bet for good going, I thought that the RP going of G/S was close enough, so I stuck a few shillings on…. it hissed down with rain during the morning, the going changed to soft and my bet was lost….. what chance do we stand against the elements….. Jeeez, I dont mind battling the bookies, but the weather as well makes it almost impossible…… take it easy with those bets guys, these are not normal times, this is Winter racing….. good for the jumpers but very dodgy for the fast boys of the flat…..
MrE
Morning all…Yesterday’s roundup:
King Joshua…n/r…Loulwa 1.62…Not Matched…(Won 1.33 @ SP)…Edas 3.20…Not matched…(3rd 2.10 @ SP)
July Stats:
Betting@SP: 51 bets, 33.33% s/r, -3.49% roi, -3.81% rooi
Exchanges: 35 bets, 37.14% s/r, 32.48% roi, 37.08% rooiToday’s bets:
1.00 Newb (1) Lady Deauville 11.00…Got 12.00 100% matched…RP f/c 9.00
1.30 Newb (5) Edge of Gold 4.90…30% matched…RP f/c 4.00
2.15 Nott (4) Exhibition 2.06…Not matched…RP f/c 1.80
2.35 Newb (7) Prince Desire 6.40…100% matched…RP f/c 7.00
3.05 Newb (1) Lisathedaddy 12.00…100% matched…RP f/c 10.00
4.25 Nott (4) Propaganda 3.95…100% matched…RP f/c 5.00
4.55 Nott (4) Rowan Lodge 8.40…Not matched…RP f/c 6.00Had the evening off so worked out my odds and put them on BF overnight…Didn’t think we would get any racing at Nottingham, but it’s been given the all clear…Heavy with more rain to come…
MrE…It my be a good idea to back all the horses with names referring to the water…stormy weather..etc…
Regards
Brico
I know it’s sods law but I’ve just done a check on latest odds of my picks…usually put them on BF between 9 – 10am…Nearly all my matched bets have drifted out…
Odds available at 9am…Lady Deauville 13.50…Edge of Gold 5.30…Prince Desire 7.40 and Lisathedaddy 14.00…all beat my accepted overnight odds.
Brico
What a wash out!!
Only 1 race from my 7 went ahead…Exhibition 2.06…Not matched…WON 1.57 @ SP…had most of them matched as well…July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 52 bets, 34.62% s/r, -2.33% roi, -2.59% rooi
Exchanges: 35 bets, 37.14% s/r, 32.48% roi, 37.08% rooiToday has been a bit of a rollercoaster already with n/r’s and odds changing every second…
Original Bets:
4.00 Ripo (2) Wing Collar 21.50…RP f/c 17.00…100% matched @ 26.00…reduced after n/r to 25.01
4.50 MRas (6) Montevideo 7.00…RP f/c 4.50…3 n/r’s declared @ 9.30am with reduction factor of 25.2%…Revised odds to 4.94…eventualy declared a n/r.
5.25 MRas (1) King of the Arctic 5.57…RP f/c 4.50…4 n/r’s declared @ 9am with reduction of 34.2%…Revised odds to 3.65…100% matched…3 more n/r’s declared shortly after…Inflicting a 42.7% reduction on my matched bet and bringing the odds down to 2.28…presently at 10am the odds available for my selection in this 4 runner race (was 11) are 2.54…just makes you want to pack up and go to Alton Towers for the day…
I suspect there will be more n/r’s and disappointments to come today.
Regards
Brico
Wing Collar 26.00 100% matched…revised to 24.38 after 1 n/r plus late w/d…2nd 20/1 @ SP…Montevideo…n/r….King of the Arctic…Got 3.65 100% matched after field had been narrowed down to 7 runners…another reduction imposed after further 3 n/r’s…ended up with 2.28 but was hovering @ 6/4 all afternoon…WON 10/11F @ SP.
It’s been hard graft this last 2 days with very little to show for it…If only Wing Collar could have clinched it today….dream on…
July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 54 bets, 35.19% s/r, -2.41% roi, -2.78% rooi
Exchanges: 37 bets, 37.84% s/r, 31.29% roi, 37.80% rooiRegards
Brico
This is really interesting Brico .. to my mind, you are going through a bit of a dull patch and the SP bets are already diving into a loss, whereas your BF priced matched bets are in profit.
I don’t know how you are pricing these up, I know you explained it but I just didn’t understand what you meant .. what works quite well for me is to use a simple little formula that is based on the FSP.
If you drop me your email address I’ll send you a spreadsheet over to work it out for you.
Hi Mr E!!
Dont want to hijack Brico’s thread for personal greetings but it’s very nice to hear from you too – and yes I’m fine, hope you are also.
Sad that so many names from the past seem to be missing. I have to say it just became SO time consuming for me and there are, after all, only a certain number of hours in the day.
I do pop in very regularly but had got out of the habit of posting, i’ll try to rectify that even if it’s only a few words of encouragement here and there.
Regards
No worries, snowman…Your thoughts and opinions are always valued and welcomed.
Dave…Have PM’d you…Would appreciate your input regarding predicting SP…I think I will be putting my bets on much later…(wait and see job)….
As I explained earlier…I’m a bit of a novice where exchanges are concerned, so still on a learning curve. Today I will be leaving my bets as late as possible and take the "mean average" that appears on oddschecker. Hopefully missing all the non-runner deductions…but I do need to get my bets placed and not rejected…(as is often the case)…watch this space…
Today’s bets:
2.30 NAbb (2) Glengarra 3.50 to 5.40 = 4.45….RP f/c 3.75
2.50 Redc (6) Red Cauldron 3.85 to 4.70 = 4.28…RP f/c 5.50
4.00 NAbb (6) Dune Raider 3.35 to 3.95 = 3.65…RP f/c 3.25
4.30 NAbb (2) Mr Joe Platinum 7.60 to 9.00 = 8.30…RP f/c 5.50So IF I were to put my bets on at this hour…3 of them would be matched, having beaten the RP f/c price…Red Cauldron being the exception. Will probably leave it until 11..ish…just to see if n/r’s appear.
Have a fancy for Prince Namid in the 3.20 Redcar…RP f/c 8/1…not having a bet though…just fancy it.
Good luck today
Regards
Brico
Changed my pricing methods yesterday and all 4 bets were accepted…Not a good move!
Glengarra 4.45…Old method of pricing 7.00…accepted 5.00…2nd 5/1 @ SP…lost by a neck…Red Cauldron…4.28…Old method 6.60…accepted 4.30…3rd 3.75 @ SP…Dune Raider…3.65…Old method 5.30…accepted 3.95…4th 4.00 @ SP…Mr Joe Platinum 8.30…1 n/r @ 15.6% reduction factor giving revised price of 7.00…accepted 7.00…Old method of pricing would have given me odds of 8.00, so probably would have been taken after 15.6% reduction…9th 6/1 @ SP.
July Stats Update:
Betting @SP: 58 bets, 32.76% s/r, -9.14% roi, -11.35% rooi
Exchanges: 41 bets, 34.15% s/r, 18.24% roi, 24.47% rooiBack to the old method of pricing up today…
3.00 Yarm (1) Only a Game 2.37…RP f/c 2.20
Yesterday’s fancy…Prince Namid…3rd 9.00 @ SP…
Get those place bets on MrE…Fancy Colditz in the 4.15 Ayr…RP f/c 13.00…….Just a fancy…
Regards
Brico
Hi Brico…. thanks for waking me up…… I had 2 from 2 today, that’s places not wins….. but I got crap prices of 1.46 and 1.70 so I just about broke even. I’m finding it difficult getting anything close to decent prices with the weather like it is…. too many withdrawals and the Betfair reductions are really tough…… I’m thinking of taking a look at the Tote prices for the next few weeks, they dont have any killer reductions like Betfair….
MrE
And here’s something else that doesn’t make sense…… I was under the impression that the "Going Stick" was now being used to give a more accurate assesment of the going….. well, if thats the case, can someone explain to me why the Going Stick has sunk in to a depth of 6.8 at Bangor and the going is declared Good/Soft…. but its sunk in even deeper to 8.3 at Yarmouth, but the going is Good/Firm…… that really is mind boggling to the point of utter confusion….. now I’m really buggered cos I dont know what the "proper" going is…… strange world is this racing game……
MrE
Hi Mr E, I’m very far from an expert when it comes to the Going Stick, but as I understand things, they ‘factor in’ what type of fixture the course is holding and therefore the same reading at 2 different courses, would only produce the same going description, if they were both holding the same type of fixture.
As a point of interest though, I dont think the Going Stick reading is a depth reading at all, rather a reading re the amount of force required to insert and then ‘shear’ the stick – thus the higher the reading the more force has been used and therefor the firmer the going.
Hence a reading of 1.0 – 2.9 would be heavy (very little force required) and a reading of 13.0 – 15.0 would be hard (lots of force required).
Hope this helps me old mucker………….
Only a Game 2.38..revised to 2.28 after n/r with 6.6% r.f….Not matched…WON 1.80 @ SP…Could have got 1.99 after n/r declared.
July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 59 bets, 33.90% s/r, -7.63% roi, -9.64% rooi
Exchanges: 41 bets, 34.15%, 18.24% roi, 24.47% rooiToday’s bets:
2.00 Yarm (7) Magical Speedfit…Initial bet 4.64…prepared to take 3.95 before the off…RP f/c 3.25
3.00 Yarm (1) Sonara…Initial bet 10.00…prepared to take 8.50 before the off…RP f/c 7.00
4.00 Yarm (1) Reballo…Initial bet 12.50…prepared to take 9.25 before the off…RP f/c 6.00
Final odds taken will depend on non-runners.
Pushed for time this morning …so big hello to MrE and snowman…If you ask me , this "going stick" is just another ploy to confuse the masses…me included…
Regards
Brico
Morning Brico,
nice results on your BF figures, but it looks quite time consuming having to keep revising the price you’ll accept after n/r’s, is it?
I’ve got BF mobile and it’s created a lot more freedom for me – heartily recommended, particularly if you’re trying to get a price matched, or in your case check on n/r’s.
Regards
Snow
Duuuuhhh!!!!…. what a nob…… yes, you are spot on Snowy, it is the pressure applied to the stick……. I never even gave that any consideration…. put it down to age……. thanks Frosty……
MrE
Morning Surfers…Hope you are all feeling my pain….
Magical Speedfit 4.00…3rd 3.25 @ SP…Sonara… Revised to 7.00 (3 n/r’s…13.3% r.f.)…7th 5.50 @ SP…Reballo 9.25…Not matched…6th 4.33 @ SP.
July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 62 bets, 32.26% s/r, -12.10% roi, -16.06% rooi
Exchanges: 43 bets, 32.56% s/r, 12.64% roi, 17.80% rooiToday’s bets:
Have put my initial bets on at my required odds, but will settle for final odds (which are My odds + RP odds divided by 2)… just before the off, less any n/r deductions.
2.50 Catt (7) Feisty Royale…Initial Odds 3.15…final odds 2.96…RP f/c 2.75
3.50 Catt (1) Handsome Cross…Initial odds 6.40…final odds 6.94…RP f/c 7.50
4.20 Catt (1) Spiritual Peace…Initial odds 6.00…final odds 5.00…RP f/c 4.00
5.05 Ling (7) Jilly Why…Initial odds 5.67…final odds 5.34…RP f/c 5.00Cheers Snow…I think it’s a great idea…trouble is, mobile technology and I don’t get on…my thumb is bigger than the screen and I keep laying when I should be backing…
MrE…I would refrain from using such phases as "Pressure applied to the stick"…You’ll have Matron on your back….Ooops…
Regards
Brico
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