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Great thread guys – it was discussions like this which prompted me to join TRF.
Regarding place-only betting – I jacked that it when I backed Land n Stars for a place at NMK (I think) a couple of years ago – he won at 50/1 and was > 100/1 on BF. I’ve never wanted a horse to be beaten so badly.
Morning Campers,
Thanks davidbrady…They were the days…Lot’s of characters about…MrE…snowman…Urby…Dazzer…dave Jay…and plenty of humour mixed with a modicum of common sense information…ruled by the rod of iron…formerly known as Moses…aka Matron.
dave jay…I’m happy that the system is chucking out winners at an alarming rate, but I’m over the moon at the exchange betting scenario. As I’ve said before, hadn’t been a keen lover of exchanges because it tended to eat into my time but it’s definately worth the effort in seeking the added value.
MrE …Stop skulking about and post us another one of your pearls of wisdom/wit…the systems forum is less drab without your monologues and the 40 years of expertise.
Today’s Bets:
1.30 Newm (1) Medley (RP f/c 16/1) (My Odds 17.22)… 19.00 100% matched on BF…19 runners so could be a few n/r deductions before the off.
2.20 Catt (3) Tanley (RP f/c 9/4 2F) (My Odds 3.89)…asked for 3.90 but last time I looked not matched.
3.55 Ling (1) Tranquilizer (RP f/c 12/1) (My Odds 6.25)…asked for 7.00 (20% matched)…asked for 6.80 (80% matched)…all in.
5.15 Catt (1) Gordonsville (RP f/c 1/2F) (My Odds 1.68….)…not matched.I’ve had big RP f/c prices before but never 2 in one day!…got a feeling that today’s gunner be a bummer…let’s wait and see….
Note: Did you know that when you type in an 8 followed by a closing bracket you get this icon pop up……
……..I just added a few dots to overcome the problem.Regards
Brico
Just a quick update…then I’m off to bed.
Tanley has just been 100% matched @ 3.90…sorted
See you all tomorrow am for the results update
Regards
Brico
Bricoman,
Medley @19.00(1.30 Newmarket) looks a very fair bet, especially on drying ground. Seems to have a stiff task at the top of the handicap, but I think a turn of foot could win this race in the last 150 yds. Needs to be covered up and produced late, I feel.
Whazzis in the same race also looks too big a price to ignore.
Hi Brico, I’ve done a good skulk now, so methinks its time for a reply to all…… I aint been anywhere and I have been reading the thread, but I just seem to have been lacking the time recently…… my excuse is my wife AND HER MOTHER…. I think that explains a lot, they’ve got me running around all over the place…..
This place betting doesn’t have to be as hard as you state Artemis and neither does it mean that you’ll miss 50/1 winners as Davidbrady has done, if I had a horse that was 50/1, I’d always risk 50p just in case…..
….. my selection method is easy, OK, it takes me about an hour cruising through Betfair for the right make up of race, but after that its pretty simple and very basic…… its just a follow on of the old story that the greater percentage of winners come from the first three in the betting….. now if thats true with winners, then it must be even more so to have another 3 three place chances in each race, and this is how I progress to my figures to date….. to level stakes I have made 35pts profit in 40 days (90selections of which 69 got placed)…. this equates to a S/R of close to 75% and an ROI of close to 40%, so thats pretty damn good….. just about on par with Brico’s method……. now the surprising little bonus that comes out of this is that those 90 selections also gave me 35 winners…. now that figure surprises me because a S/R in excess of 35% is summat special and I know that this cannot continue and it will catch a cold soon…… but what it does show is that there is a lot of profit to be made at place betting by just concentrating on the first 3 in the betting…….
MrE
Good post MrE .. I think the trick with place betting and the ace up your sleeve is that when it goes wrong, it doesn’t go as wrong as when you are betting on the win market because the odds are much shorter.
You seem to be doing very well anyway and long may it continue …
Good bet today Brico .. I think that you got match at under SP on your 6/1 winner, but them’s the breaks I suppose. So long as you are more on the right side than the wrong one you’ll do fine, I’m sure.
Hello again Dave….. the only trouble with place betting is the short prices…. almost every bet your striking is odds on and thats really crap value…… you know from the past chats that we’ve had, how much I spit on short price betting, by its very nature I should lose long term, but this does not seem to be happening….. I just wonder if the fact that I’m not just getting one chance for my 4/6 shot but I am getting 3 chances of getting a payout for 4/6….. if that is correct, then perhaps my odds are closer to 3 x 4/6…. I dunno, I aint a mathematician, but my S/R seems to point in that direction……. its strange,12 months ago I would not have touched this with a barge pole because of the bad value offered, but a few long chats with someone that I met has made me look at this again….. the value is still bloody awful, and all that makes it worthwhile is the fantastic S/R, I can only hope that it continues….. it doesn’t appear to be fading at all, and I really cant see it going off the rails….. famous last words…… but if we’re going by the market forces, it must continue….. yes, there may be the occasional glitch, but the market is the be all and end all of betting…. if that goes tits up, then we’re all losers because we bet on those markets, we dont bet blind, we strike a bet having some idea of what price to expect….. can you just imagine having a bet and only finding out how much you’ve won after the race is over…… not the way most of us would want it…… no, I think the market is the very best guide you can find to assist in your finding winning bets….. horses are not machines, they do not run to form, if they did there wouldn’t be a bookie left because we would have the winner every time…… but the market is something else, this is peoples money and us humans dont like losing money, we want to win, and win every time….. yep, the market, wether its right or wrong, will give you the best guidance you can find, far better than any tipster……. dig deeper, have a good look, I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised………
MrE
MrE .. The place market seems to work to different rules to the win market .. I suspect there are some good reasons for this though.
If you wanted to price a place market from the win odds you would use the Harville Forumula, which basically uses a conditional probability function, so these odds are subjective to the win odds.
The problem with pricing for placing using the Harville Formula is that it can’t allow for what is known as ‘The Silky Sullivan problem’ which was a horse that either won or lost. So although the win odds are correct the place chance is over estimated and then you’ve got value else where in the market.
MrE…Your wife’s mother must be nearly as old as Matron…
Some interesting and informative points there, I’ve a few questions of my own regarding place betting on the exchanges…I will put them when I have more time…Food for thought, MrE…Food for thought.
Artemis…Good call on Medley…now that is definately one I should have bet for a place..
Dave Jay…Still on a learning curve with the exchanges…I suppose the main thing is I’m trying to beat my implied odds…but, as you say..beating SP is also a primary goal.
All 4 bets were 100% matched yesterday…Medley 19.00 (3rd 9/1 @ SP)…Tanley 3.90…(1 n/r…7% r.f.gave me 3.62) (2nd 11/4F @ SP)….Tranquilizer 7.00@20% stake…6.80@80% stake (WON 6/1@SP)…Gordonsville 1.68 (2nd 4/6F@SP).
July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 26 bets, 42.31% s/r, 28.88% r.o.i., 16.08% r.o.o.i.Exchanges: 22 bets, 45.45 s/r, 66.42% r.o.i., 47.05% r.o.o.i.
Apart from Medley…most of the other bets drifted in the afternoon and if I had set my prices higher, I’d have done better, but you have to weigh this up with bets being rejected if they are to high…I’m pretty sure that some bets will go in my favour and others will not.
Today’s Bets:
2.20 Warw (12) Casino Night 4.90 (RP f/c 3/1F)
3.30 Warw (2) Garnett 5.30 (RP f/c 7/2 2F)Last time I looked neither bet matched…
Regards
Brico
MrE will be wheeling me around in my "bath chair" later today!
I am pleased the "old boy" is doing well with his "place betting" – it is better to make a small profit, than no profit at all.
Regards – Matron
@ Brico……. mother in law is 91…. I think thats about 122years younger than Matron……. 
Dave…. what the hell was that ???….. I got lost after the first sentence…. I dunno what this formula is but its bound to be a bit of nonsense thought up by some mathematical freaking wizard….. only they can find difficulty in the differences between possibilties and probabilities, these are two different animals entirely….
When you come back from your canoeing holiday in Yorkshire, you’d better make this formula a bit clearer, not that I want to understand the formula, its just that I wanna understand what you said….. your either having trouble explaining cos your at work, or your drinking that wobbly legs stuff……
Shirley
the fact that the position of the horse in the betting signifies its chance of winning and therefore, if its true potential (according to the market) is to win, then it stands to reason that the chance of getting placed must be a far better possibility…… except for getting a decent return for your risk via better odds, I dont see what formula has got to do with it….. if its thought to be good enough to win, then a place must be assured (70% of the time anyway)….. if your suggesting that is not the case, then what the hell is betting all about…. if the favourite isn’t gonna win or get close, then what is the ebb and flow of the market all about…. I think the art is to get value for your money obviously and if we’re looking at the correct odds for your bet, I can understand that too….. but I cannot have it that a formula can say that a selection is a hot favourite to win, but has got no chance of being placed…… I can’t believe I’m even writing this crap….. when you get back after partaking in your Watersports, you’d better make this a bit clearer, somehow I think I must have grabbed hold of the wrong end of the stick…… either that, or you’ve gotta stop drinking…… you can’t keep drinking that local water mate, it makes your knees go funny…..
MrE
.. that wasn’t hard, getting you confused that is !!Right, the data that is used to compile the win market odds is based on which horse is mostly likely to win.
The place market is derived from the win market which isn’t right. The most consistent horse is most likely to place which might not always be the horse that’s most likely to win.
I’m not going to go into anymore detail here. When I get back from my adventure I’ll drop you an email.
Ok Dave, I’ll look forward to it in extreme anticipation……
Have a good holiday mate….. and remember to pack your wellies…… Matron will be sure to keep your bed warm in Ward 7….. the last time that you disappeared for a while, I found old Matron was a quivering wreck who was kneeling by the side of your bed…… his whole body was shaking and trembling from all his sobbing…….. well, I think he was sobbing……. hurry back, the inmates will miss you too…….
MrE
I was sobbing all right!
You know I get upset when the patients are out on leave.
Less medication to hand out though.
Regards- Matron
Have a good holiday Dave…
Yesterday…Casino Night 4.90 100% match…taken at 2pm.. (5th 5.00@SP)…Garnett 5.30 100% match…taken at 3.19pm.. (5th 5.00@SP)…more or less spot on with my implied odds but both runners drifted badly late on.
July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 28 bets, 39.29% s/r, 19.68% r.o.i., 11.80% r.o.o.i.
Exchange: 24 bets, 41.57% s/r, 52.10% r.o.i., 40.38% r.o.o.i.
MrE…I just Googled that "Harville Formula"…It’s another world out there….
Back later with today’s bets….I have a cunning plan to squeeze some more value out of my picks…
Regards
Brico
Today’s bets:
1:50 Asco Master Chef (RP f/c 4.50)…(Required 4.82…asked for 5.30)…no match
2:15 York Climaxtackledotcom (RP f/c 13.00)…(Required 9.60…asked for 10.50)…no match
3:20 York Red Romeo (RP f/c 7.50)…(Required 10.30…asked for 11.50)…no match
3:45 Newm Honkey Tonk Sally (RP f/c 4.50)…Required 4.53…asked for 5.00…matched @ 5.90
4:30 York Dream Lodge (RP f/c 13.00)…Required 6.90…asked for 7.60…matched 11.00@70% stake…13.18@30% stake.My cunning plan is to take my implied odds (Required)…multiply by 0.1 and add the answer to the required odds.
Take the 3.45 Newm….Required odds are 4.53 x 0.1 = 0.453….asked odds will be 0.453 + 4.53 = 4.983…rounded up to 5.00
Not very optimistic today…but you never know in this game…
Regards
Brico
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