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‘Lo guys, smee again……. OK, as promised, here’s how I get by…..
Many moons ago I decided that the correct way to play this game for a profit was to target myself to make 30pts profit per month, that sounds a lot but it’s only 1pt a day…… now I knew that I’d be struggling on the GG’s with any system that I had in my portfolio, but I also knew that each of those methods would get me a few points each month and I could enhance that with sensible staking, so I concentrated my efforts into looking at where profits could be made at minimal risk….. for minimal risk read value betting…. I would do far better with one winner at 6/1 than two winners at 6/4….. yep, I know its pretty basic stuff, but it still doesn’t sink in, I’ll guess that a very large percentage of you are still betting poor value, and that just aint the way to go….. anyway, lets get back on track…..
The idea of making 1pt a day struck me as being a tough cookie to crack using just one method of betting, so I thought I’d look at 4 methods to bet and targetted myself to make just a measly 1/4pt from each, this became surprisingly easy and I started with the casino playing Blackjack…. but I would only play if I had a bonus…… about a year ago the bonuses were plentiful and I was betting at just £1 a time and I was making £400 per month, that was well over anything that I had expected and it was money for old rope, they we’re giving it away, I became what was called a "bonus hunter", plenty of money at that, it was almost impossible to lose….. but things change, and the bonuses have got fewer and harder to get….. this was because the American Government banned its citizens from obtaining money from internet casinos, with the Americans being booted out, the casinos lost 80% of its customer base, a lot have never survived and those that did withdrew the bonuses…… there is still money to be made but I’ve dropped from earning £400 per month to only £100pm….. still not to be sneezed at but not the golden egg that it used to be…..
Then I played Roulette, only for £1’s, but I made a few smaller amounts at that… I used to target myself to win £2 and then leave, I would also leave if I lost a fiver….. I had a few highs and lows but averaged out at slightly over £50pm…… that wasn’t a lot considering the time put in but it was a profit….. except for the odd game, I no longer play roulette, not because its not profitable because it is, I never had a losing month, but its that value thing again, there was no future in risking a fiver to win just £2…..
The next thing I bet on during the Winter is Footy, I have a method that I use to perm 5 team accy’s and that wins a reasonable amount, not a fortune, but definitely the target of 7.5pts a month……
The fourth little gem is the horses, I had one method that I use to reach my selections on the GG’s and thats easy peasy…… as stated, I have now discarded Roulette as worthy of the risk, so I use a second method on the horses……
Now you will see what I mean about little grains of gold making a nugget….. I have B/J, Football and two horsey methods….. all that I require from each of these is a paltry 7.5pt profit per month….. that gives me my 30pt a month target…… and it aint that difficult to make 7pts a month out of any good system…….. but there’s the rub….. it needs a system that can be easily managed and the correct staking to go with it….. some systems are far too complex and takes way to long to reach a selection….. and we also know that there is no such method anyway….. so you need something nice and simple and a good feel of money management…… it aint difficult guys…..
MrE
Hi Chaps,
I see I’ve strired up another hornets nest…he!he!
Dave Jay & Shirley (MrE)
…Thanks for your thoughts on staking…I’ve been sticking my exchange bets on in the morning…I work nights so it just happens to suit my sleeping pattern. I set a price according to my ratings and stick to it. So basically, I’ll leave it on all day hoping that they are all accepted, but if they are’nt, no worries. Up to now, all my 8 bets on the exchanges (July) have been taken, 7 @ 100% and 1 @ 25% stakes…which leaves me to believe that I can squeeze even more VALUE. So in a vain attempt I have factored in another 1/4 point for every horse, which effectively pushes my prices out a bit more.Yesterday’s Update:
Even though L.E. had an RP f/c 11/8F…my ratings gave me odds of 2.10 (11/10) and when I saw 2.24 (5/4) available I took it. Consequently, the price drifted like a barge out to 6/4 during the day. Legal Eagle WON @ an SP of 4/5F. So even though I got a good price, I know I could have done better. (Hence my 1/4 point increase in my ratings). I’m aware that it wont work out for every race…but it seems like the smart thing to do.
Profit Comparison after 8 bets, 50% strike rate…
Betting @ SP….9.5% R.O.I., 1.63% R.O.O.I. (returns on original investment)
Exchange betting (including 5% commission)…41.52% R.O.I., 10.03% R.O.O.I.Early days, I know but I think the above figures illustrate my case entirely…VALUE.
Today’s Bets:
3.15 Sand (7) Scintillo (RP f/c 11/8F) (My Odds 2.50 (6/4))
3.30 Warw (5) Nassau Style (RP f/c 6/1) (My Odds 5.00 (4/1))
3.40 Wolv (3) Cobo Bay (RP f/c 11/2) (My Odds 18.25 (17/1))
4.25 Sand (2) Star of Light (RP f/c 6/1) (My Odds 7.80 (7/1))
5.40 Warw (5) High Dancer (RP f/c 13/8F) (My Odds 4.70 (7/2))Last time I looked only Nassau Style & Star of Light had a 100% match
Good luck today gents
Brico
Me again,
Just a word about non-runner’s…I’ve just had to revise my odds downwards on Cobo Bay (17/1 to 14/1) and Hi Dancer (4.70 to 4.39 although still around 7/2 mark)…1 n/r declared in each race.
Scintillo, Nassau Style & Star of Light have all their stakes 100% matched.
If I’m awake…I’ll adjust my odds accordingly but there is a chance that if bets are not matched and n/r’s are declared when I’m in zzzzz land…the bets may not get a look in. (The only flaw in my strategy)
Brico
They’re all fair comment MrE .. I agree staking in the way I described it’s the best way to go about things from a value point of view but it is the best way to protect your bank, which is what Brico should be doing untill he’s proofed his results sufficiently to be confident in his system.
You say that you stake to win so many points a week, do you employ such things as stop-at-a-winner and all that stuff? Good post btw, I enjoyed reading that.
Only 3 bets matched today, all 100%…Scintillo 2.50 (2.37 after n/r deduction) (WON 6/4 @ SP)…Nassau Style 5.10 (WON 5/2JF @ SP)…Star of Light 7.80 (LOST 13/2 @ SP)
2 bets unmatched…Cobo Bay 15.00 (LOST 9/2 @ SP)…Hi Dancer 4.70 (LOST 11/10F @ SP)
So far (July):
Betting @ SP: 13 bets, 46.15% s/r, 13.54% r.o.i., 3.77% r.o.o.i.
Matched exchange bets (inc 5% comm): 11 bets, 54.55% s/r, 70.30% r.o.i., 24.02% r.o.o.i
Grains of gold on the SP…Nuggets of gold on the exchanges…
Regards
Brico
Brico…… yep, your right about Betfair and the better odds, it makes a hell of a difference to SP….. but some of their reductions hurt, they tend to seem a bit unfair….. one of my bets today had a reduction of 30% and that was a bit steep…… the price finished HIGHER than the original price that I took so I really got creamed…….
I like Betfair for the occasional win bet when the price is way better than any quoted on oddschecker, but apart from those bets I never use them for win bets because they are crap value to me….. I’ve tried taking early prices, I’ve tried asking for higher prices, but still I end up worse than betting with Centrebet……. its with Centrebet that I find a lot of my win bets are better….. I bet at SP+ and that made me an extra 8pts compared to the prices that I would have taken at Betfair plus there is no commission…… you really have to look at the finished bets to ascertain the best possible outcome, you would need to weigh up what you end up with after striking your bet at Betfair and subtracting the high reduction rate and the commission….. then weigh this against getting 6/1 instead of 11/2 or 17/2 instead of 8/1 with no commission and no reduction, you’ll be surprised just how better of you might be with SP+…… I say "might be" because it may just be the price range at which I play, but I find SP+ far more profitable on MOST of my win bets….. but there are a few exceptions……
But I do love Betfair for my place only bets….. now thats where a bucketload of profit lies…… you can stick your "laying" where the sun dont shine, there’s far easier fishing in the place market….. perhaps that should read that there’s far more fish in the PLAICE market…… Oh shaddup…. I shouldn’t laff at my own funnies…… 
I am banging along at a cracking pace by betting place only and its fun…… I’m laughing all the way to the bank even if my horse gets beat…… its late now….. bed calling……
MrE
Some very interesting points there MrE…I use to have an a/c with Cenrebet’s former company, some Australian outfit that snowy put me onto…think it was Superodds or something like that…always used to bet on SP+ during my "mad period" a couple of years ago…anyway I went on a 3 week run of good fortune and was making bundles but they eventually started messing me about…ie: reducing my stake to £50 when I’d bet a large amount…So I closed the account…I didn’t wait for them to do it…I could see the writing on the wall…
Today’s bets:
2.05 Sand (1) Reverence (RP f/c 13/8F) (My Odds 7.00 (6/1)
2.15 Beve (1) Alpen Adventure (RP f/c 11/10F) (My Odds 2.64 (13/8)
4.55 Sand (3) Regal Parade (RP f/c 7/2) (My Odds 9.00 (8/1)
5.35 Beve (9) Gap Princess (RP f/c 100/30F) (My Odds 4.00 (3/1)I decided to take a leaf out of Dave Jay’s book and delay placing my bets just to see how the markets pan out, seeing as it’s my day off. Had to revise my odds for the 2.15 at Beve because a major n/r appeared at 10am – My odds are now 2.00 (1/1) and I took 2.08 (11/10) on BF just a few minutes ago. (100% match)
I don’t hold out much hope for the others getting matched…they all seem to be shortening…we’ll see.
Regards
Brico
I thought I would put my stakes on for the other bets…even though there is little chance of them being accepted…and in the process I’ve dropped a bollock
I’ve taken Regal Parade @ odds of 4.40 (7/2)…thinking I was on Gap Princess.(My odds 3/1).
I think I’ll start another thread singing the virtues of not drinking on the job!!!…………
Regards
Brico
@ Brico….. I NEVER drink on the job Brico, the missus just hates me spilling my lager all down her front……Yep, I hear what your saying about Centrebet, to be cut back like that would be a pain, and they would only do it to me once, then I’d join you in giving ’em a quick boot up the jacksie….. but at present my bets are not that high, they dont need to be…. I suppose I’m lucky because I aint trying to make a living out of it, all I want to do is supplement my income…… as I said earlier, I have my ups and downs, but at the end of the day I’m averaging about £400 a month of which about £250 of that is from the GG’s…. and my stakes on the GG’s dont go much above a tenner, so I’m comfortable with that and I’m not looking to earn any more, so my stakes are small enough not to cause me any damage and I cant see the likes of Centrebet or any of the others restricting my tenner bets…..
I did bet higher than that at one point but I caught a cold with my betting and so I became more restained and curbed the greed….. pride comes before a fall as the saying goes….. and I fell….. began to think I was unbeatable but was brought down to earth with a bang….. hence my keeping rabbiting on about staking correctly……
I can see by the views on this topic that there is a lot of interest and although the "Systems" section seems quiet, I’m sure that the lack of response is only because there’s no discussion taking place….. I’m sure that there’s a lot of guys reading this that would love to know whats happening with everybody else and even comment on how they’re doing….. trouble is as always, finding time…… I personally play some casinos, mainly B/J, but then there’s Poker….. I love that game, its a pity I’m crap at it….. good job I only play for cents…… but again it doesn’t matter what I play for, its all allocated by my betting bank and money management….. I will never lose my bank whatever I play…. now thats what I call "protective staking"….. I’ll confine myself to just the horses because this is primarily horse racing systems, but I’ll give you a further insight to how I do it a bit later on…… not that I’m any kind of authority, I just might be in a position to fill a couple of gaps that the younger members might not have picked up from my past ramblings……
Hello Matron, where are you ????…… have you lost your voice again, or are you too busy with that pin…. I can see that your still going for short prices….. naughty, naughty…..
MrE
I’m still around – but, concentrating on Wimbledon at the moment.
See you later.
Regards- Matron
Had 3 from 4 bets 100% matched today (including the dropped bollock)…Alpen Adventure (2.64 revised to 2.08 after n/r declared) (PU 10/11F @ SP)…Regal Parade (9.00 but took 4.40 under the influence of red wine) (LOST 7/2 @ SP)…Gap Princess (4.10) (LOST 3/1 JF @ SP)…Reverence (7.00) was unmatched (LOST 5/2F @ SP).
Presently a losing run of 7 bets, betting at SP and 4 bets (should be 3 really) betting on the exchanges. So we are getting close to the predicted longest losing run of 10 for a 250 bet series @ 40% s/r.
Betting @ SP: 17 bets, 35.29% s/r, -13.18% r.o.i., -4.80% r.o.o.i.
Exchanges: 14 bets, 42.86% s/r, 31.74% r.o.i., 14.02% r.o.o.i.
MrE…You’re right about finding time to post after trawling through the cards…placing your bets…updated your records…and taking the missus shopping…and the exchanges complicate things by seducing you into watching odds go up and down. Keep dropping in with your little gems of wisdom…cos they always make interesting reading and usually generate a response from other forumites.
Regards
Brico
you make me laugh Brico….. what response from other forumites ???…. there’s only you, me ‘n Dave posting……. lots of little ghosts lurking around, I can sense ’em but I cant see ’em……. oooooohhhh…… is there anybody there ?????…..
MrE
Your doing much better than SP Brico with your BF prices .. price being the most important thing of course.How do you decide what price to ask for ?
I check odds-checker and get in a nick above the best price if I can.
MrE…Don’t forget Artemis & Matron….
Dave Jay….Excellent question….I have 2 hats…1 with prices in and 1 with gee gee’s names…then I get my Grandad (who is blind and totally impartial) to have a lucky dip….
Seriously though, It is very much a work in progress…I was looking for something that would be quick and easy to do that someone with the mental agility of a peanut could manage… So (as I mentioned in my very 1st post on this thread) I give each horse half a point for each tick in the Postdata section of the RP…also 1/2 pt for a Group entry, and 1/2 pt for each nap….I then gave 1/4 pt to EVERY runner but upgraded this to 1/2 pt to squeeze a bit more value for my selection.I then enter the total 1/2 pts for each runner into an Excel spreadsheet that gives me the probability and odds-1 (Need to add 1 for BF prices)…I also note down the RP f/c price just to compare like for like.
If there are non-runners, then I ammend the rating of that runner to read zero and revised odds are given in an instant.
Up to now, some prices have been spot on…some well above…and some below the RP price…but the main thing I think when evaluating new strategies is to be consistent…which is why everything is mechanised.
Hope that answers your question Dave…
Regards
Brico
Hi gang
for me…….. the most important thing is estimation of risk.
Oh, that’s a hardon!byefrom
carlisleA sensible enough approach Brico .. so long as you get enough winners to pay for your betting your laughing .. I think the idea of always beating SP is an important one. I think it was Alan Potts who gave an illustration of a seasons betting who showed that he would have made a loss on a winning season if he had taken SP on all of his selections.
carlisle…You’re right there mate…that’s why we go to such depths in studying form, etc…trouble is, after a few losers on the trot you begin to think why did I waste all that time studying…without knowing that losing runs are a part of the game and predicting them accurately makes them less of an obstacle….Provided the winners you get are at realistic odds…then the losers can be dealt with.
Dave Jay…I think we all do the best we can with what information we have and it’s true to say if you run with the pack…you deserve to get scammed!…
Today’s Bets
2.30 Brig (5) The Betchworth Kid 5.60 (9/2) (RP f/c 7/2)
Highest price on oddschecker overnight has been 4.60…last time I looked it was 4.20…my bets is on….to date: not matched.
Sheik ‘n’ Knotsterd may not run if ground is unsuitable (trainer quote)…looked at past runs and ran on Good & Gd/Fm so should be suitable…If it dosn’t run, there is a 5.2% reduction factor on BF…If bet not matched and Sheik doesn’t run I will be reducing my odds down to 5.00 (4/1).
Still on a losing run of 7 so could be another loser (10 max)???
Regards
Brico
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