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Nomadic Press used to publish books on trainers which listed the precentage they had as fallers in both hurdle and chases. Sadly the company folded a few years ago but browzers bookshop webiste still list some s.h ones in stock.<br>Nicky Henderson used to have the lowest percentage of fallers overall but at Aintree his record of fallers was always high.<br>Plumpton (which is my local course) rebuild around one new fence every other year. <br>The fence that was the first one down the back straight was so old and flimsly horses could virtually plough straight through the birch but the first time it was used after being rebuilt it caused 4 fallers in one afternoon.<br>The second last fence at Wincanton always has more fallers than any other on that track and 2 seasons ago Paul Nicholls had 14 horses fall there when in the first 3 with just the two fences to go until the finish. (Ruby Walsh does ok though when he rides there).<br>Likewise the second last at Kempton has been the downfall of many horses and the railway fences at Sandown always take their toll as it seems if a horse gets the first one wrong there is little chance to get things sorted before the next one looms up.<br>With Bangor though the fences are a minor concern as most races are normally won or lost on the 5 furlong run in from the last fence. The downhill fence at Cheltenham is always a concern.<br>Good topic but difficult to find an edge in the search for winners. (imho)
Thanks all for your comments
I think it is clear that a more in-depth approach is required and that stiffness of fences has to be considered in the context of the lay-out and nature of each course. My original idea was to attempt to use this research to produce ratings in order to assess a horse’s jumping performance (in conjunction with speed).
I plan to re-run the research in the next couple of days, but in more detail, concentrating on a narrower class band, omitting heavy going races, noting number of fences actually jumped (as Prufrock has suggested) and also which fences are causing the falls.
I will post any updates regarding my research or my encroaching insansity, as I go.
(Edited by Aranalde at 9:34 am on Aug. 14, 2006)
Thinking about the railway fences at Sandown, it might be me, but you do seem to see alot more horses simply pulling up there rather than falling. In a way this amounts to the same thing, but of course there are differeing reasons for being pulled up
Just to complicate things further….
Of course, there is the option of counting mistakes, not just fallers and as you say, looking into why a horse pulled up.
Another feature is the length of the race. You will get, I suspect, more fallers in a 3 1/2 m slog than in a 2m chase.
Also it is more difficult for horses to jump up or downhill than on the level.
Also the ability of the jockey is very important. Good jockeys stick on better than poor ones. Also they are better at getting their horse right for a fence and helping them keep their feet on the other side.
Selphie, thanks for that. At some point I will need to do a proper study of NH jockeys (I think Mordin did something similar in one of his books) and then factor that into my findings. I’m okay with the uphill/downhill factor since I am interested in assessing the jumping performance of a horse at any given course and if the gradients at a course are causing more horses to fall, that is part of the difficulty of the course. Your point about race distance is also a good one. I suppose I was hoping that longer distance races would be run more slowly and so make it easier to jump, but there is the fact that obviously more horses will jump more fences in longer races.
I am in the process of working out what I want to measure when I run this research again and I will post again when I have reached some sort of conclusion.
I would suggest you get propotionally more actual fallers in shorther races.
Puled up and refused different matters, but the speed of a 2 mile chase is obviously a factor
That was my initial reasoning, that the speed of the shorter races would make falls more likely. But I am uneasy about the fact that so much of my initial reasoning was based on rough assumptions that certain factors would balance each other out. When I look at this again, I need to be much more focused and rigorous in my approach. I also probably need to subscribe to Raceform Interactive, or set aside a month or two to do nothing but plough through the results.
Personally i would look up Mordins research. Cant recall exact criteria, but it seemed to produce results that were in line with expectations.
At the end of the day, you probably will not come up with anything different and ultimately, its only ever going to be a rough guideline
Save you a couple of months 🙂
I have looked in three of his books but haven’t found what I was looking for. Lee-Priest’s book does have a little research on fallers, but he discounted ground conditions and field size, erroneously I think and gave no actual figures, just listed the courses in order of stiffness. I might try emailing Nick Mordin – worth a try.
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Quote: from Aranalde on 2:32 pm on Aug. 13, 2006[br]<br>As for how they will be used, I am not yet completely decided. It seems to me that the most important factor in chasing is jumping ability combined with speed. Assessing the relative difficulty of the different fences is a starting point, but only that. <br>
Surely your starting point should be the horse, and not the course?
That was only a brief attempt at an explanation. Of course the starting point is the horse. In going on to assess how good a jumping performance a horse has put in, I am attempting to assess how difficult the fences are that the horse has been jumping.
<br>A couple of thoughts – perhaps Taunton has a high rate of fallers because it stages a higher percentage of novice handicaps than any other track and those races almost always attract a maximum field of low grade horses.
The Mildmay course at Aintree is noted for stiff fences, but a jockey I spoke to about that reckoned it was because the course have so few meetings and the chases are divided between the Mildmay and the National courses. He said that at most courses, the inside part of the fences gets softer as the season progresses, as the birch is weakened by the passage of hundreds of horses over the fences. But at Aintree that doesn’t happen and it catches the horses out.
I did my own research years ago into ‘trap’ fences and concluded that the most falls happened at fences coming just after a bend, or where there’s a change of level from downhill to uphill close to the fence on either side.
Examples of the former are the (now moved)second last at Stratford, the third last at Kempton, the first in the straight at Ludlow, the final open ditch at Cheltenham – the bend there isn’t much but still enough to get horses on the wrong leg.
Examples of the latter are the second last on the Old Course at Cheltenham, the third last at Taunton and the fence at the top of the back straight at Plumpton.
AP
Thanks for your comments, ap, always interesting to hear. I take your point about Taunton, but I deliberately didn’t include any race with Novice, Maiden or Beginner in the title, for the reasons you have stated.
Interesting point regarding the courses at Aintree, I hadn’t thought of that. Do most courses rebuild their fences each season or every two years?
As part of this analysis, it has become increasingly clear to me that I have to get down into the level of looking at individual fences and the configuration of each course. That is more time consuming, but ultimately I think it will be more worthwhile.
<br>Aranalde,
I remember from a tour of Newbury that the course manager said they rebuilt half the fences there each summer. If you watch the flat race coverage, you might see the empty frames of the fences awaiting the new birch.
On the question of new/rebuilt fences, it will be interesting to see how the horses cope with Ascot and Kempton when they re-open in October.
AP
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