October 9, 2019 at 21:57 #1465488
Even this far out, Paisley Park looks rock solid at 3’s. He couldn’t have been more convincing when winning this.
The runner up that day, Sam Spinner, is going over fences, but when he does start off, I’ll be watching his jumping closely, as I can’t rule out the chance of him reverting to timber, and his current 33’s is too big.
Dallas Des Pictons ran very well in defeat in The Martin Pipe, and though he’s one I’m looking forward to over fences this year, having bet him for both The RSA and JLT, his jumping wasn’t 100%, and I just wonder if this’ll be an option.
The only other one who jumps out at me right now is Ballyandy. He’ll have to find loads of improvement, but I thought he hinted at more to come last year. Think we’ll get an answer one way or another on Saturday, when he takes in The Silver Trophy at Chepstow. He’s currently 40’s.
Couldn’t possibly bet anything just now with Paisley Park looking so dominant, but I’ll be keeping an eye on the situation with Sam Spinner.October 9, 2019 at 23:40 #1465497jackh1092Participant
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Eglantine Du Seuil. Stays hurdling, and is another potential horse for this or the mares for Mullins. I feel she’s one that might’ve gone under the radar ever so slightly, even though she ended up being the Mares Novice winner. As much as she didn’t look like winning the Punchestown race, she stayed on well vs very good geldings, so she has form in the book already to back up the MN win.
She’s not in the betting for this, and is 25s for the Mares. Given she was hammered by Honeysuckle, if Honeysuckle shows the same level this year combined with some of the other Mullin’s contenders, i don’t think it’s impossible she rocks up here.
Mullin’s has said she’s not the quickest mare in the world, so this has to be an option if she keeps progressing.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!October 10, 2019 at 08:36 #1465502charlie87Participant
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I have been chipping away at Emitom over the last few months at 33/25 EW. Mostly 20’s now and as short as 12’s. I was very impressed with his run behind Champ at Aintree. He started the race a little keen but Sheehan quickly settled him out the back got him into a lovely rhythm, which was vital in his first test over 3m. He clearly relished the trip and Sheehan rode him like he knew he was on a good horse and he only found the older more experienced Champ too good. Not many 5 year old’s run in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle and of those that do, its produced some very good horses. I expect them to work on his jumping and with more natural improvement to follow next season, I think he could be the one throwing it down to Paisley Park next season for sure.October 10, 2019 at 08:53 #1465506jackh1092Participant
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Charlie that’s not a bad shout- I was reading a trainer quote from Howards book last night + i am almost certain he said he’s been at Henrietta Knight’s to work a lot on his jumping. Also said he shows a lot more toe than their previous winner Cole Harden.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!October 10, 2019 at 14:50 #1465526charlie87Participant
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Ffs, you couldn’t write the script could you. Makes the case in the morning, done by the afternoon. Hello ante post betting my old friend, oh how I’ve missed you
Stayers’ Hurdle hopeful Emitom will not reappear until the new year after suffering a setback at home.
Trainer Warren Greatrex had set his sights on the three-mile prize at the Cheltenham Festival in March for his five-year-old, who has only been beaten once in six starts.
Emitom is a dual bumper winner and bagged three novice hurdles last term before finding only Champ too good when contesting an Aintree Grade One back in April.October 27, 2019 at 21:16 #1473011Ray1891Participant
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Does anyone think RASMES DE TEILLEE could go here? he ran a 3m hurdle at cheltenham the other day and looked goodOctober 27, 2019 at 21:31 #1473015
Interesting shout Ray.
Work to do obviously, but Aintree aside, he was solid last year after Wincanton, and he had excuses that day.
Next entry should tell you plans, and if he gets an entry for Betfair Stayers Hurdle At Haydock, then that might be the route they’re going.
Obviously still all about Paisley Park right now, but it’ll be good to find a few at big prices in the lead up too.
Another pair in that mould could be Tobefair, and Shades of Midnight.November 10, 2019 at 08:09 #1474475
If The Cap Fits 10s as an each way shout.November 11, 2019 at 00:38 #1474566
Great run from Bacardys today, best I’ve seen from him.
I’m still looking for that EW to go with here, with Paisley Park looking so strong.
Already mentioned Tobefair and Shades of Midnight, and both now introduced to market, at 50’s and 33’s.
Roksana will no doubt head to The Mares to defend her title, but I thought she was very unlucky at Aintree yesterday, and with an allowance here, 33’s is big for a Festival winner, albeit a spawny one.
As much as I’d love to see him go here, it does look set in stone that Tiger Roll will go Cross Country. I’d love to see them consider this after his Boyle Hurdle win, but it won’t happen. I’ll still be covering it NRNB though. It’ll be unlikely that he’d be 66’s on this terms though.
I had a slight notion that they might consider this for Might Bite, but his entry for King George suggests they’ll persevere over fences, and he’d have to convince that he’s still in love with the game.November 23, 2019 at 14:48 #1475639
Yay If The Cap Fits won.November 23, 2019 at 14:56 #1475641FinalFurlong91Participant
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Carrying a penalty, over an insufficient trip, first time up
Suggests to me he has improved again
Could be one to put it up to paisley parkNovember 23, 2019 at 14:57 #1475643Nathan HughesParticipant
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He’s the one I worry aboutMember since March 2008November 24, 2019 at 02:11 #1475735
Paisley Park due out Friday, but still looking for my outsider in this.
I’d be interested in Tedham if he got an entry. Always been talked up, and after pretty significant market support, he travelled like a dream. Unfortunately met trouble in running, and pushed way back. Eye catching run at the end though, and he’s definitely my idea of a decent outsider. Unfortunately not in the market yet.
Whether he cone here or not, one to take note of.November 24, 2019 at 11:42 #1475765JasolongParticipant
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Most races I think looking for outsider value is the only way to go. But in my opinion there’s some races where you really are only betting in the hope for a place. I don’t get it. Like you’re losing half your stake by doing horses each way. If you bet a horse each way you’d like to hope it has an outside chance of winning. In this particular race it just feels you’re betting to place with no chance of winning. For me paisley park is bulletproof. I know a few smart ass’s will say nothing is bulletproof and he could get injured etc. Yes that’s fair enough there is a very small chance of those things happening but assuming he turns up for me he’s odds on by the day.
So for me this is either paisley lump Jobby or a no bet race as you can find equally good each way bets in other races at the festival that also have a chance of winning not just a chance of placing. Hope the point I’m making makes sense to people rather than just getting a response of paisley park could get injured.November 24, 2019 at 12:45 #1475772
Paisley Park isn’t bulletproof Jasolong. Not yet anyway.
If The Cap Fits beat a horse rated 160 giving him 6 pounds over an inadequate trip. That puts him to about 167 with further improvement expected going up in trip to match or even better Paisley Park who is on 169.
PP has a worthy challenger in this sphere I feel and they are due to meet in the Long Walk Hurdle next month which will be very revealing.
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