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Hi
I am just starting to produce my own speed ratings and was hoping to get some advice.
When working out the GA for the course should I take all races on the card into account, or, as I am only doing the sprints, just take the times of the races I am rating?
I would also like to thank TBB for all the work he has put into producing the standard times and would like to ask if these will still be the same for next season or do they change over time?
Hope this makes sense and thanks in advance
GaryHello Garry,
Just to let you know where I’m coming from here, I’m probably, if not one of the most talented and successful speed rating guru’s in the United Kingdom to date and have a wealth of knowledge plus experience to save you time but also cut a few corners getting you to the right destination, so there will be no one better to answer your question.
Regards to your going allowances question quote "
When working out the GA for the course should I take all races on the card into account
". The simple answer to this is, yes, how else would you be able to understand the going through a numeric method without actually using the information presented to you?.
So, use the whole spectrum of data i.e the full race card and use what you’re given i.e finishing times to calculate the going. You must bare in mind that certain factors will produce faster or slower times for example; slowly run race and the respective class of races.
Hi
I am just starting to produce my own speed ratings and was hoping to get some advice.
When working out the GA for the course should I take all races on the card into account, or, as I am only doing the sprints, just take the times of the races I am rating?
I would also like to thank TBB for all the work he has put into producing the standard times and would like to ask if these will still be the same for next season or do they change over time?
Hope this makes sense and thanks in advance
GaryUpdating the standard times will always be an ongoing process, I must have updated the standard times list at least 20+ times this year.
When working out the going allowances, I look at all the race times on a card using a combination of the winners BHA rating and my lbs. per length calculations, and where possible ignore any 2yo races.
Using an Excel Macro I came up with, I always start assessing the going allowance of any meeting at 0.00s/f per furlong, this gives me an insight in to the actual going allowance i.e. if I see ratings like -25, -35 and -40 I know that the going was heavy.
This is my going allowance tables which I came up with by analysing about 20,000 races.
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/fTurf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/fThere is a lot of other factors to take into account especially when the Clerk of the Course at Haydock due to rail movements, just recently added an extra 107yds to the 1m6f trip, using my lbs per length calculations I can make allowances for this.
With the rain that is fallen recently, most of the time you will end up with 2 going allowances at a turf meeting, Newbury is my classic for this, the amount of times I end up with a different going allowance on the straight course, compared to the round course is quite often.
Once I have work out the going allowance, I then check the race with highest rating and if it is a handicap and I find that the first five in the race have improved their ratings by over 10lbs+, this is a good indication that I have under estimated the going allowance.
Just recently I must have spent an hour working out the going allowance at an Irish meeting because of the heavy going.
Thank you for the replies.
A LOT of information to process! I have downloaded the 54000 race data, would it be rude of me to ask for a draw column. The reason being that I have read about a draw bias at various courses and was wondering if it was possible to take this into account using your Lbs/Length calc?
Also, when I learn to put a file on here, can I please get some help with the macro writing/coding? I am very interested in making my own speed figures, but do not understand excel. Sort of a public Work in Progress. Eg I can get the data I need, but how do I get excel to sort and store it. All the formulae I use are freely available on the internet and are from various articles/forums.
I have googled the subject to death, but don’t even know if I am looking for the right thing, or used the right terminology. Any help here would be brilliant.
Again, many thanks
Gary
You are out of luck regarding adding a draw column to the database, I have just spent hours correcting the rows that were out of sync.
There are so many Excel tutorials available on the internet covering every aspect on Excel and Macros, I have about every tutorial on the subject on my 1TB external harddrive.
BluesBrother, I think you could help out a newcomer here a little better, please if you would add the draw column for Tisgus who has kindly asked for one.
Regards
1. If it is too much trouble, please don’t bother. But, there is no need to be so rude about it. I only wanted to know if it is possible!
2. Thank you for pointing out that "There are so many Excel tutorials available on the internet covering every aspect on Excel and Macros, I have about every tutorial on the subject on my 1TB external harddrive."
I came to this forum for help because there seem to be some of the brightest minds in the business posting in here, yourself included! And this looks to be one of the dumbest things you have posted!
Your own work on standard times, speed figures and how to compile them, have interested me so much, I would like to try to understand them myself and learn some of your craft. I will never claim to be a speed handicapper of whatever it is you call yourself, just joe punter looking for an edge. If you do not want to help that is fine. I will find the information somewhere and please keep posting as I find most of what you say enlightening.
Sorry if I upset you, I was not being rude.
Putting together the standard times list alone took me 4 months working every day as I had to check every individual standard time and then add my lbs. per length calculations.
If you look at an old post of mine I explained how I compiled my speed figures for
Dawn Approach
, the only difference is I use my own going allowances and not Dave Edwards which I used in the example.
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 4&start=26
I have even explained further down the post how I worked out the lbs. per length which I use.
Going back to the draw issue of yours, remember that the BHA changed the stall positions in the past two years on some race courses, so any information prior to 2010 would corrupt the data.
Later on today I will run a draw project covering the past two years and post it here.
The Draw Project:
Here is the draw position of every winner in the GB,IRE and FR from 2010 to date covering 21,320 races.
(WinRAR Excel.xls file)
TBB,
With Draw Advantage:Do you think "winners" are the best thing to judge draw advantage?
Or win and placed horses?
Or percentage of horses beaten? eg All horses drawn high beat 40% of all horses drawn low (when the field is split between 2) where as 50% could be expected if there were no difference in the draw).
TAPK won’t be surprised that I now favour the latter.
Value Is EverythingI have never taken any notice of the draw, when one of my
specials
is running, if the horse is good enough the draw won’t stop it.
Having a horse that is drawn badly increases the value in my eyes, although
Orfevre
is drawn 18/18 in the ARC this has not stopped people backing it.
If I have a horse 10lbs clear on my speed ratings I never look at the draw.
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