Staking Plans

[Space Cowboy]

“Himself” on another thread mention staking plans as an ingredient of successful punting. I have read comments that regard staking plans as throwing good money after bad.

I have had lots of problems with staking plans in the past, mainly concerning upping the stake too quickly after a good spell and then wiping out the bank in the next series of bets. Another problem I have had is that i have tried to grow the bank to ever increasing proportions and failing to take the profits, I look back now and recoognise that greed was the problem, trying to grow the bank to proportions that would make me millions rather than take a sensible income and grow the bank, and income, slowly.

I am currently using the Retirement Plan what are you using?

[Gingertipster]

imo Staking should be about how much chance the horse has of winning, how much value is in the bet and likelihood of running well.

My own staking method is:

My idea of the horse’s chance in percentage terms.
Minus the odds available in percentage terms.
Then either X 7, 8, 9 or 10 depending on my “trainers in form” ratings.
Plus my idea of the horse’s chance in percentage terms.

So if I believe a horse has a 20% (fair 4/1) chance and is a available @ 6/1 (6/1 = 14.3%) so it’s 20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 7 = 39.9 or 5.7 X 8 = 45.6 or 5.7 X 9 = 51.3, or 5.7 X 10 = 57, depending on my “trainers in form” ratings.
If X 7 then 39.9 + 20 = 59.9 rounded up = 60 points @ 6/1 for a potential profit of 360 points.
If X 8 then 45.6 + 20 = 65.6 rounded up = 66 points @ 6/1 potential profit 396 points.
If X 9 then 51.3 + 20 = 71.3 rownded down = 71 points @ 6/1 potential profit 426 points.
If X 10 then 57 + 20 = 77 points @ 6/1 potential profit 462 points.

Value Is Everything

[Space Cowboy]

I am trying my best to understand that, and you have explained it very clearly. What’s difficult, for me, to understand is how you calculate that your horse only has a fair chance of winning and then price it.

Do you bet every race and asses the whole field?

[nwalton]

i just stick to the basic points system and first work out(hopefully) who will win the race,have a price in mind what i would back at.If i do not get that price then for me its a no bet race for me.
But you must stick to the set amount ie £100 pp for the whole season(year),if on a good run dont then up the ante.
Very occasional i will go higher than the 10pt ceiling,but that is very rare.

[Space Cowboy]

what is the “basic points system” nwalton?

[nwalton]

on scale of 1-10,ten being the strongest bet(fancy) you have and 1 the weakest.
You then decide how much you want to bet per point (ie) if you bet to £20 per point and make a horse a 2pt win bet you stake £40 on that.So you max bet is 10pts = £200
You must really stick to your amounts for a period of time,not because you are on a ‘run’ up your stake midseason.
Hope i have explained it ok

[Space Cowboy]

you have explained it fine nwalton? I find myself with the same dilemma as in Gingers post, how do you determine a bet is only 1 point or 7 pts, are the horses 10% chance and 70% chance respectively?

[betlarge]

Space Cowboy wrote:

I find myself with the same dilemma as in Gingers post, how do you determine a bet is only 1 point or 7 pts

Ah, and there’s the rub…

As he states, Ginger’s stakes are broadly speaking a combination of the value he perceives and the price available. It is his ability to accurately gauge ‘value’ via his form analysis that ultimately defines his profit or otherwise. No clever staking can mask a lack of overarching ability, but it may enhance it if the basics are profitable.

I’ve always bet to level-stakes, which has been £200 per bet for the last decade or so. I bet late into Betfair, so can’t really take an early-price view of value and do it on-the-fly, although I always have a rigid ‘value’ price in mind. I sometimes split my stake to two or occasionally more selections.

I like level-stakes as it gives me a big reward on the occasions I pick out a decent-priced winner, and avoids the temptation of having too many bets at lesser amounts. I’m betting to my maxium (and only) stake every time, which means I’ll take every bet seriously.

I don’t think I’m skilled enought to accurately guage the ‘amount’ of value in any given bet so don’t adjust my stakes accordingly like Ginger. I would suggest he is simply a better judge than me.

Mike

[Drone]

Nice one SC – Out of the mouths of babes oft times come gems

More or less ditto Betlarge: level stakes for those able to identify value but not edge; Ginger-type variable staking for those able to identify value and edge

Unsurprisingly there’s been a plethora of ‘staking’ and ‘value’ threads on TRF in the past. Here’s a small sample that might be of interest

https://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/form-factor-special/ The links in the second post, if still active, are well worth watching

The Kelly Criterion

How can I stop resisiting fun bets

Betlarge ‘pro-gambler’ – Final report!

[nwalton]

i make my mind up on the strength of the bet by just basically reading the form book and taking all the other factors in yard form etc.As said i am very basic in my workings.
As i said have a price in mind (make a tissue to roughly 104/105%) and then if i am happy with price i play.If it is shorter than i wanted i will just sit and watch race,yes i have missed many winners over the years,but imo price is important

[Space Cowboy]

H Drone,

the problem I have is that it appears to be a statistical method of betting on random judgemental decisions. Personally I would not go near any horse with a barge pole that I considered to have only a 10 or 20 percent chance of winning. Its odds on to lose. I can see why in those circumstances why its necessary to back several horses hoping to strike lucky.

Thanks for the links.

[Drone]

“a statistical method of betting on random judgemental decisions”

What are you referring to? The concept of Value? Level Stakes? Ginger Stakes? Betting two or more per race?

[thejudge1]

betlarge wrote:

Space Cowboy wrote:

I find myself with the same dilemma as in Gingers post, how do you determine a bet is only 1 point or 7 pts

Ah, and there’s the rub…

As he states, Ginger’s stakes are broadly speaking a combination of the value he perceives and the price available. It is his ability to accurately gauge ‘value’ via his form analysis that ultimately defines his profit or otherwise. No clever staking can mask a lack of overarching ability, but it may enhance it if the basics are profitable.

I’ve always bet to level-stakes, which has been £200 per bet for the last decade or so. I bet late into Betfair, so can’t really take an early-price view of value and do it on-the-fly, although I always have a rigid ‘value’ price in mind. I sometimes split my stake to two or occasionally more selections.

I like level-stakes as it gives me a big reward on the occasions I pick out a decent-priced winner, and avoids the temptation of having too many bets at lesser amounts. I’m betting to my maxium (and only) stake every time, which means I’ll take every bet seriously.

I don’t think I’m skilled enought to accurately guage the ‘amount’ of value in any given bet so don’t adjust my stakes accordingly like Ginger. I would suggest he is simply a better judge than me.

Mike

or possibly more pretentious

[Space Cowboy]

Drone wrote:

“a statistical method of betting on random judgemental decisions”

What are you referring to? The concept of Value? Level Stakes? Ginger Stakes? Betting two or more per race?

I’m not sure Drone; words like Fair chance, Strong fancy, weakest fancy: imply a measurement of confidence to me rather than calculated chance.

Anyway I get the feeling I am digging a hole so will stop. One thing I will be considering is how to measure the edge that I perceive I have.

Thanks for the thought provoking Comments.

[Gingertipster]

Space Cowboy wrote:

I am trying my best to understand that, and you have explained it very clearly. What’s difficult, for me, to understand is how you calculate that your horse only has a fair chance of winning and then price it.

Do you bet every race and asses the whole field?

I don’t mean the horse has a “fair” chance of winning SC.

Every horse has a fair price, if I believe the price is only fair or worse than fair then there’s NO BET, if more than fair then BET.

To break even a punter needs to win 20% (1 in 5) of his/her bets @ 4/1. Therefore the “fair” odds of anything I believe has a 20% chance of winning is 4/1. So any horse I believe to have a 20% chance should only be backed if greater than 4/1 is available. (actully I have a margin for error but that complicates things).

These are some fair odds/percentages
3/1 = 25%
100/30 = 23.1%
7/2 = 22.2%
4/1 = 20%
9/2 = 18.2%
5/1 = 16.7%
11/2 = 15.4%
6/1 = 14.3%
13/2 = 13.3%

So for horse I believe has a 20% chance (a fair 4/1 shot) which is availale @ 6/1 (6/1 = 14.3%) = 20 – 14.3 = 5.7.
etc

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

thejudge1 wrote:

or possibly more pretentious

Have I done something to upset you Judge?
Seems like every time I reply to a thread you’ve got to use an insult.

Value Is Everything

[thejudge1]

Gingertipster wrote:

thejudge1 wrote:

or possibly more pretentious

Have I done something to upset you Judge?
Seems like every time I reply to a thread you’ve got to use an insult.

Sorry ginger, just on the wind-up, didn’t mean to cause offence mate.

[Author]

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