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Stable 'Supposed' 2nd Strings

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  • #6545
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Does anybody know of any trainers who do remarkably well with their ‘supposed’ 2nd strings?

    Are there any stats on this type of thing?

    The reason I’m asking is becuase over the last two days I’ve heard two high profile trainers talk about the chances of their horses, only for the ‘supposed’ 2nd string to come out on top.

    Yesterday we heard Ferdy Murphy say that he thought Arjay was almost a pentalty kick – in fact he made reference to it’s chances being like a golfer having a comfortable lead in a golf tournament stood on the 18th tee – the golfer can only lose it rather than someone else winning it if you get my point lol.

    Anyway, Arjay was beaten out of sight and the stable 2nd string won, having been backed from 14/1 to around 6/1. The stable 3rd string finished 3rd at 100/1.

    Today it was the turn of Willie Mullins, who basically said that all things being equal, Royal Heritage should beat Ballytrim. RH is a drifter while there are nibbles for Ballytrim, who wins the race with RH beaten out of sight.

    I’m not for one minute suggesting anything untoward has gone on – but based on these trainer interviews, why were the ‘supposed’ 2nd strings well backed? Is any information available to suggest a trainer has a good or profitable stat when he has two or more runners in a race?

    Thanks in advance for any replies.

    Mike

    #140660
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Nicky Henderson did it on Saturday when he entered 3 and by all accounts landed bit of a touch. Nothing naughty they just knew which was best I would imagine.

    Have seen the ousider of two get caught up in a snowball effect when there are not a lot of punters at a meeting………someone just fancies one has a large bet and others jump in whe they see the price drop.

    Most would be pretty straight When it’s a genuine touch a trainer will know his other one is better and will let them run on merit………no snse in stopping one of them as a gambled on outsider of two would be picked up immeditaly by the betting inspectors and reported……..Stewards would then be having an extra long look.

    #140678
    batman
    Member
    • Total Posts 489

    Earth Magic & Sweet Klin 24/01/08 At gowran there was no money for Earth magic at all but hung on well in the end at 14/1 SK was 15/8??

    #140681
    batman
    Member
    • Total Posts 489

    I’d like to think the Bowe’s weren’t "at it" Batman.

    They are good honest sportspeople, and a credit to the sport.

    And think on that day Sweet Kiln was found out by a stamina laden stable mate in conditions he would have found more ideal.

    Given the question marks about her stamina at the trip, her SP was a scandal.

    i agree and i never even suggested otherwise just pointing out when a stable’s 2nd string wins over the 1st maybe it was the superb ride giving by Earth Magic’s Jockey??? :lol:

    #140687
    batman
    Member
    • Total Posts 489

    I’d like to think the Bowe’s weren’t "at it" Batman.

    They are good honest sportspeople, and a credit to the sport
    .

    I take it you Rate the Bowe’s..? wonder why they been such a credit to the sport would use a Jockey that you think is useless??

    #140696
    wakeman
    Member
    • Total Posts 434

    Hi Mike, for me there are a few that spring to mind but as you say we are not suggesting for one second that anything is going on. although betting patterns would obviously indicate otherwise :).

    Jumping ship slightly i would like to bring a couple of Jockeys to everyone’s attention.

    Until this year when he will not be retained by Khalid Abdullah, Richard Hughes was a perfect example, when K A had more than i runnner in a race i would always back the one that R H would not be on sometimes particularly in Maidens he would be 3 or sometimes 4 handed so i would back the others as well, i don’t have any Stats available to justify this, whilst not saying that it paid all the time, i would be quietly confident that it more than often did.

    Another one that springs to mind is Richard Hills, same scenario as above in that when Hamdan Al Maktoum had more than i runner in a race the same pattern would emerge, back the other one or other one’s.

    I will endeavour to look into this particular case through the coming Flat Season, but it would be Sods Law if i were to be Stumped on this one :lol:.

    An interesting Topic and i will try and see if there are any others, although don’t count on this :).

    Cheers for now.

    Adrian.

    #140699
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    Other than Bandari winning as a supposed second string, I can’t recall too many occasions when a less fancied Maktoum runner has won, though given the connections I would suggest any such circumstance would be entirely random.

    #140700
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Refresh my memory on the incident that led to Pat Muldoon moving Sea Pigeon. Wasn’t there a huge argument regarding the horse and most people thought PM was way out of order and acccusations were unfounded?

    #140746
    scallywag76
    Member
    • Total Posts 280

    Sorry Mike that I can’t help with any current and recent stats.

    However, I seem to remember that when Henry Cecil was in his pomp, the less-fancied runner in 3YO maidens often won at a decent price.

    For me, though, the most amusing example of a second string winning came in the Ascot Stakes of 1976 when the Jeremy Hindley-trained Tudor Crown, a supposed pacemaker for the same-stable favourite Coed Cochion, made all to win at 66/1. One for the Serious Crime Squad, I’m sure!

    #140758
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    I have memories of Hern having quite a lot of wins with the stable neglected, but whether he would have shown a profit or not I have no idea.

    You remember the occasions when they win but tend not to notice when they run down the field.

    Colin

    #140782
    NWRA
    Member
    • Total Posts 259

    I don’t have any stats to prove this but I’m sure Godolphin often do well with their second strings, in decent handicaps, conditions and listed races, etc: that is, when the second string isn’t obviously being used as a pacemaker. As a general rule, I would imagine that any honest stable will have a reasonable record.

    Regarding Bowes, I do think they’re usually an honest stable but I remember an instance when Solerina was struggling in a race where she was a very short-priced favourite and her stable’s second string was cruising behind her but recieved a very tender ride. They justified it by saying the crowd got the result they wanted to see, and Solerina was retired not long after.

    #140794
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    The most memorable example for me was the first time out win at 50/1 of Henry Cecil’s Belmez (Willie Ryan) in a juvenile conditions race over a mile at Newmarket in November 1989. Second home was his stable companion, Satin Wood, ridden by Steve Cauthen who went off at 2/1.

    The winning time was outstanding and I had the biggest bets of my life – and they still are the biggest of my life – ante post on the winner for the following year’s Derby at 50/1 and 40/1. He won his first two starts at three, including the Chester Vase, and was down to 7/1 favourite for the Derby when he was injured three weeks before the race which was won in his absence by Quest For Fame who had finished second to him in the Vase. Belmez recovered from his injury and won the King George later that year. Again it was from a better-fancied stable companion in Old Vic. I had a considerably smaller stake on him in the KG, of course.

    The other one that sticks in the mind is Alleged, no less, winning at The Curragh in May 1977 at odds of 33/1. Vincent O’Brien, his trainer, had two much shorter in the betting including, predictably, the Piggott-ridden favourite.

    #140797
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 442

    I remember Footstepsinthesand’s debut at Naas when ridden by Colm O’Donoghue and backed into favouritism; despite Jamie Spencer riding a $3,600,000 Danzig colt called Olympic for Aidan O’Brien in the same race.

    The RP analysis: “A decent maiden and a hugely impressive performance from FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND, who was the Aidan O’Brien second string, according to riding arrangements. The subject of a spectacular gamble, he was fast away and drew right away in the final 2f. He looks a Classic colt.”

    The horse went off at 3/1 but I’m sure he was a double digit price when the market opened…

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