Stable Form

[robert99]

Quote: from dave jay on 4:43 pm on Dec. 13, 2006[br]If a trainer has an annual strike rate of 12% and he runs 10 horses a week for 52 weeks of the year.<br>Runs: 520<br>Win: 62<br>During the next year, how many weeks could go by without him having a winner before you could start thinking he wasn’t going to maintain his annual 12% strike rate?<br>

Dave, it is not about averages but determining when a particular stable is in, or about to reach, peak form.

For your 12% example a stable may have, for simplicity’s sake, a regular past monthly record of say 6 months with a 24% strike rate and 6 months completely barren period. You would only be watching for the stable to start reaching its peak form during the six, 24% strike rate months and take no acount of zero strike rates in its barren period.

It is irrelevant at any time when the stable is not firing, as you are not looking to back it then. It is relevant when the signs and past history are sufficiently convincing that the stable is coming back into form. Stable methods are little changing and using that knowledge just helps you to look in the right place at the right time.<br>

[dave jay]

With all due respect Robert thats a load of waffle and you know it.

[doyley]

Hello,

Th only definite indicator I use about a stable being out of form is when, due to illness, the establishment is closed !! ;)

One cannot simply use "horses’ not winning" as a pointer to a stable out of form.<br>The previous example of NTD’s early form can easily be broken down. His dirth of winners since early season is entirely due to :

>The quality of race entered,<br>> the horses’ early strikes will not have gone unnoticed by the H’Capper, and penalities would have been applied making it harder to win.

How many times do you hear Trainers state, <br>" Ground, trip OK, bit competitive, BUT WE HAVE NO WHERE ELSE TO GO…due to the horse’s rating.

> Owners pressure. Most owners want their horse out of the box and on the track. The trainer of moderate horses’ are pressured to enter a race which the animal is not quite up to for various reasons.

Basically, it is the type of race entered, if a stable enters it’s early season stars into better races’ all within , say, three weeks, and are all duly beaten….it would be incorrect to label the stable out of form!

regards,

doyley

[Aragorn]

Anyone else think that maybe Mr Nicholls stable is losing form? Quite a few horses in the last week getting well beat when you would have expected much better runs.

[Author]

Posts