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Stable Form

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  • #556
    Zebra
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    A bit like why football teams play worse away, something that has always puzzled me is why stables have good and bad runs of form. Putting aside issues like viruses, even many of the top trainers (and Twiston Davies is always a good example of this) have periods where all of their horses run really well and then periods where they hardly get a winner. Why is it so hard for a trainer to keep their horses in top form for a few months in a row?

    #33550
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Quote: from Zebra on 10:29 am on Dec. 13, 2006[br] Why is it so hard for a trainer to keep their horses in top form for a few months in a row?

    <br>A very good question Zebra and i’m sure trainers would like to find out the answer too, however, what is "stable form"

    Is it winners to runners, win/placed horses to runners, placed horse to runners

    <br>When i look to see how a stable is doing, i look at what price the horses are, were they fancied to put in a good show , how many of these actually won, how many were placed, how far were they beaten etc

    <br>

    #33551
    Zebra
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    Yes it’s true that there are all kinds of ways you can assess stable form but nevertheless it’s pretty clear when a stable is in or out of form

    #33552
    empty walletempty wallet
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    Is it?

    <br>trainer has mainly moderate beasts in his charge, the majority have no chance of winning or being placed

    Is he/she out of form?

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 10:50 am on Dec. 13, 2006)

    #33553
    empty walletempty wallet
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    Trainer has all his horses in the grip of the handicapper, all being being beaten because they are racing in the wrong grade

    Is he out of form?

    #33554
    Zebra
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    I would say his horses are irrelevant! But, more seriously, Twiston Davies having had a very good run at the beginning of the jumps season has now not had a winner for 37 races and only 4 placed out of his last 18.

    #33555
    Andrew HughesAndrew Hughes
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    • Total Posts 1904

    The RTF figure included in the RP cards is an interesting idea, rather than a simple count of wins to runners, though I suppose it depends on accepting that their ratings are accurate in the first place.

    #33556
    empty walletempty wallet
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    How many are now handicapped up to the hilt, how many no longer qualfy for Novice events etc

    Are his of moderate ablity and  does he make hay while the sun shines<br> <br>is he now finding it difficult to compete against the better horses now the NH racing is in full swing

    #33557
    Aragorn
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    • Total Posts 2208

    If you were to use an analogy, does a football player hold his form for the whole season? No. Is that down to the training methods of the manager and his coaches? Unlikely although there may be some impact. It’ll be due to a number of factors such as tiredness, confidence (yes I do believe that horses remember there past trips to the course), weather conditions for training and general well being.. Then you have to consider diet etc etc

    In the case of Twiston-Davies you would imagine that he had trained up plenty of his horses for an early season gambit in which he can pick up prizes before the class horses appear.. You could call that good planning/training. It may also be that he has more better ground horses and wanted to run them before the winter set in?

    The RP try to quantify this through there RTF stats but i’m never convinced of their worth

    (Edited by Aragorn at 11:01 am on Dec. 13, 2006)

    #33558
    empty walletempty wallet
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    Quote: from Aragorn on 10:58 am on Dec. 13, 2006[br]It’ll be due to a number of factors such as tiredness, confidence (yes I do believe that horses remember there past trips to the course), weather conditions for training and general well being.. Then you have to consider diet etc etc

    In the case of Twiston-Davies you would imagine that he had trained up plenty of his horses for an early season gambit in which he can pick up prizes before the class horses appear.. You could call that good planning/training. It may also be that he has more better ground horses and wanted to run them before the winter set in?

    <br>Good stuff Aragorn imo

    #33559
    SirHarryLewisSirHarryLewis
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    • Total Posts 1194

    Quote: from Aragorn on 10:58 am on Dec. 13, 2006[br]If you were to use an analogy, does a football player hold his form for the whole season? No. Is that down to the training methods of the manager and his coaches? Unlikely although there may be some impact. It’ll be due to a number of factors such as tiredness, confidence (yes I do believe that horses remember there past trips to the course), weather conditions for training and general well being.. Then you have to consider diet etc etc

    In the case of Twiston-Davies you would imagine that he had trained up plenty of his horses for an early season gambit in which he can pick up prizes before the class horses appear.. You could call that good planning/training. It may also be that he has more better ground horses and wanted to run them before the winter set in?

    The RP try to quantify this through there RTF stats but i’m never convinced of their worth

    (Edited by Aragorn at 11:01 am on Dec. 13, 2006)<br>

    while all of these may affect the form of an individual horse, it really has actually nothing to do with the stable form mystery as we understand it.  The analogy to a football team is interesting but at the end of the day a football team competes, wins and loses together, a horse doesnt.  Also at any time in a large yard, a number of horses are being trained for different targets, some are easy lists, some arent.  Nothing really changes.

    The reasons for one horses running like drains is usually put down to illness because theres nothing else you really can blame.  Sometimes, this is obvious in the form of a cough, or abnormal blood counts but many times there are no clinical signs yet for some reason even the stable star is just not where he should be.  This can happen at pretty much any time of the year and the duration of its stay can very greatly.

    The reason for why so many of them start fireing and almost running above themselves is a greater mystery.

    Obviously I wonder is some trainers are more prone to this phenonmena then others.  It might be indeed something in the method but i dont think its anything obvious.

    By the way, the same phenomena also exists in greyhound racing I believe.

    SHL

    #33560
    dave jay
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    • Total Posts 3386

    I dont believe in stable form .. I think its a statistical illusion.

    #33561
    Monkey
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    • Total Posts 141

    What follows might be blather, but I think there might be something in it.

    First, I don’t think the notion of stable form is all illusion. When horses are in form they can bring each other on more on the gallops.

    It’s often noticeable that when a stable has one good juvenile it will often have several, Jim Bolger’s being a case in point from this season, Kevin Ryan’s from last season.

    I think the bigger stables have an advantage in that they can stage a little bit more gentle competition of the appropriate level for each horse on the home gallops, which helps to bring out the best in all of them.

    #33562
    robert99robert99
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    • Total Posts 897

    Quote: from dave jay on 12:31 pm on Dec. 13, 2006[br]I dont believe in stable form .. I think its a statistical illusion.<br>

    There are some random effects, but if you look at the monthly strike rates over the years there are clear patterns for each trainer. If it were purely all random these patterns would not occur. So, logically, there are some underlieing causes of strike rate peaks and falls.

    These could  be climate  – when can horses start into training. Has he AW gallops etc?

    Does trainer batch train ie do horses come to a peak roughly at the same time?

    Number of horses trained – can any peak be sustained or does the ammunition run out. Can he use any raced horses as markers as to the fitness of those yet to race?

    Placing ability of trainer – does he need several runs to get horse fit and know where to best place them?

    General horse ability level – ie cannot win much during peak period of season etc etc

    #33563
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Quote: from SirHarryLewis on 12:23 pm on Dec. 13, 2006[br]

    Quote: from Aragorn on 10:58 am on Dec. 13, 2006[br]If you were to use an analogy, does a football player hold his form for the whole season? No. Is that down to the training methods of the manager and his coaches? Unlikely although there may be some impact. It’ll be due to a number of factors such as tiredness, confidence (yes I do believe that horses remember there past trips to the course), weather conditions for training and general well being.. Then you have to consider diet etc etc

    In the case of Twiston-Davies you would imagine that he had trained up plenty of his horses for an early season gambit in which he can pick up prizes before the class horses appear.. You could call that good planning/training. It may also be that he has more better ground horses and wanted to run them before the winter set in?

    The RP try to quantify this through there RTF stats but i’m never convinced of their worth

    (Edited by Aragorn at 11:01 am on Dec. 13, 2006)<br>

    while all of these may affect the form of an individual horse, it really has actually nothing to do with the stable form mystery as we understand it.  The analogy to a football team is interesting but at the end of the day a football team competes, wins and loses together, a horse doesnt.  Also at any time in a large yard, a number of horses are being trained for different targets, some are easy lists, some arent.  Nothing really changes.

    The reasons for one horses running like drains is usually put down to illness because theres nothing else you really can blame.  Sometimes, this is obvious in the form of a cough, or abnormal blood counts but many times there are no clinical signs yet for some reason even the stable star is just not where he should be.  This can happen at pretty much any time of the year and the duration of its stay can very greatly.

    The reason for why so many of them start fireing and almost running above themselves is a greater mystery.

    Obviously I wonder is some trainers are more prone to this phenonmena then others.  It might be indeed something in the method but i dont think its anything obvious.

    By the way, the same phenomena also exists in greyhound racing I believe.

    <br>

    But isn’t the point that collectively the individual horses make up the stable (or team)? As we are talking about the "stable" not each horse in it? I think Monkey makes a good point and one that can (almost) be likened to football teams in that, in house competition can raise the standard of the team as a whole? The difference for the trainer is that he must view each horse indiviudally, unlike us who are debating his collective output.

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