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Eydon for me at 10-1, I’m actually quite confident that’s a very fair price in this field
just 6 to post (if meeting goes ahead)
Al Aasy
Max Vega
salt bay
Feigning Madness
Gods window
danielle
I’ve laid the fav and backed the Gosden second string and Beckett third string. Making a slight profit if any of the other three are successful too.
Al Aasy is the class act, but gives weight and is still a bit quirky and I am not convinced he’s as good in Autumn. Worth taking on, especially when all the others can be given a chance.
Been waiting for Danielle to run on very soft ground again. Trouble is by the looks of things a lot of other people have been too… And has to find quite a bit on her Lingfield form to even get involved. That said, it wouldn’t be a surprise if she finds it.
Stable companion Gods Own seems to have been overlooked on the basis of being beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Al Aasy last time out at Ascot. But was a good staying on third on this day last year in the Futurity – on very soft ground. Could also be suited by the greater test of stamina the ground provides (if they go a decent pace). No proper “front runner”, but Gods Own has made the running twice before.
Salt City has been one to take on this season. Out of form (behind both the fav and Gods Own last time). But is now blinkered for the first time. Raced prominently at York on soft ground when running well (at least until seemingly not going through with his effort close home). The headgear might work. Maybe it’s a sign they’ll try leading / pacemaking?
Stable and owner companion Feigning Madness could ruin a good handicap mark if running well here. Quite a bit to find but has seemed to be feigning something. Laziness? Or a need for further? 10f on a sound surface wasn’t his bag in the Blue Riband Trial. Not been seen on the track since, which is a worry. Ran well on very soft ground at the back end of last season, so if he is fit…
The other Beckett horse is the one I’ve plumped for as my second main bet. Max Vega is another that hasn’t raced for a long time. Looking amiss at this track in April. However, he’s run some of his best races (in defeat) when fresh. Loves the ground and this time of year. Won this in 2022, beating another Haggas odds-on shot Hamish.
Value Is EverythingMark,
God’s Own was a very good 2M chaser, but I can’t see him winning a Group 3 on the flat!
On the other hand, God’s Window appeals to me as well in this race – might get a stronger ride today from Marquand after pulling too hard down the hill at Ascot last time.
LOL
Ah yes Alan, the Tom George / Paddy Brennan Melling and Punchestown Champion Chase winner.
Oops.
Tom M just might have an insight into how to beat the fav.
Hope Gods Window gets away well today. Can blow the start, like quite a few of the Gosden clan seem to have done this season.Value Is Everythingunlike me, but managed to get a bit of evens on the machine Al Aasy at the price just thought the small doubts were worth the risk
Thanks nwalton.
Good result. Could have been even better though. Average price I personally took was around 16/1 and just before the off I saw 30 available.
I pressed the back button but then thought the paddock judges at Newbury probably know Max Vega isn’t fit… So didn’t go in again. Value Is EverythingWell I was at Newbury and God’s Window looked a picture in the paddock, a real shine on his coat considering the time of year. Got the ride we hoped for, but gave up very tamely.
Max Vega in the paddock looked half asleep – but he does like Newbury and this ground.
Gods Window got the lead and may well have been in A1 condition in the paddock Alan. Noticed on TV at the first turn he’d sweated up on the neck. Do you know whether that is part of his character or is it unusual? imo Most likely he ran as if amiss. But maybe temperament is playing a part. Max Vega ran as poorly on his last time out run in April. So hopefully Gods Window can come back from whatever ailed him today.
Studying the form beforehand,
I looked at what Max Vega had done after a break like he had before today’s race… And although the positions achieved may not look that good, the Timeform Performance Ratings were quite impressive… As a group, better than his races without a break.Here are his four most recent runs after a break:
5 3/4 lengths 3rd @ 25/1 in the 2023 September Stakes to Bay Bridge at level weights. Putting up a rating only 4 lbs worse than his Master Rating.
2 3/4 lengths 3rd in the same year’s John Porter. Giving 3lbs to the whole field. With a rating 5 lbs worse than his Master Rating… AND was better than any of his following three runs when supposedly fully fit.
5 lengths 6th to Rebel Romance in the 2022 Glorious Stakes but again gave 3 lbs to the field. Again, the Performance Rating just 4 lbs worse than his Master Rating.
Won the 2022 John Porter, yes you guessed it… Putting up a Timeform Performance Rating of just 4 lbs below his Master Rating.
…Which all imo indicated the chance of him being fit was at least fair; especially with his yard still in excellent form.
…And because today the odds-on fav Al Aasy was this time the one giving 3 lbs. Max Vega’s Timeform Race Rating was ONLY 1 lb below top rated Al Aasy. Spot on Alan, we knew Max goes well at Newbury, acted well on very soft ground and usually tracks pace. So was going to be ridden differently from the usually dropped out fav… When betting against an odds-on fav I like it when a horse will be ridden in a different way to the fav. Particularly when the race didn’t have a natural front runner – might favour my prominent runner.
So if Max was fit and well today – which although was still quite an “IF” (amiss? in April) still not imo as much of an IF as the betting suggested – for the reasons above… On “form ratings” he’d actually have stood a good chance of winning…
And did.
Value Is Everything
I pressed the back button but then thought the paddock judges at Newbury probably know Max Vega isn’t fit… So didn’t go in again. 
I looked at what Max Vega had done after a break like he had before today’s race… And although the positions achieved may not look that good, the Timeform Performance Ratings were quite impressive… As a group, better than his races without a break.
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