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I am laying this St Nick all day for Derby, gone backwards and probally needs St Ledger trip.
Probally strongest run Group race he could of wished for in 2000 Guineas so they can’t complain, wouldnt have got a faster race elsewhere – beaten by Elusive Pimp with a better draw and not finishing on like Dunlops – could of regressed? you bet, Obrien was confident this would be closer and dam sure got him in racing condition to do himself justice
lay all day, i promise you beat eating steak every day for resst of the year
Having backed SNA since August at 25/1 i have no doubts on him winning the derby. to much been made of his guineas run.We all know as 2yos when you get to 3 you need to step up in trip to see how better they come. and SNA will show good he is at Epsom at a 1m4 he is a middle distance horse rather than a miler.
- Total Posts 17716
Without even concentrating on SNA, it is common knowledge that almost all of O’Briens horses improve for their first run so basing your thoughts on him regressing after one run is dangerous in my view.
Is anyone else of the same opinion as me that this horse really needs soft ground? I thought that when I watched him going down to the start for the Guineas. At the time I had backed St Nicholas Abbey at 5/2 but as soon as I saw him go down I knew he wouldn’t win and I said as much at the time. I think if / when he gets softish ground we’ll see a very good horse until then I won’t consider backing him.
As for what will win the Derby, I haven’t a clue I think its wide open.
It seems a silly thing to say with St Nicholas Abbey only ever having ran over a mile but I am extremely confident that he will win the Derby. I think the further he goes the better he will be. I think that he will probably be back at some stage over 1m 2f and perhaps even 1m to prove he is "As good as Sea The Stars" (In my opinion this is rubbish, the latter being one of the best horses I am likely to see.)
The fact after two derby trial winners O’Brien is still siding with this horse should be a hint in itself. I do, however, feel the value has gone now and would not touch a fraction below 7/2.
It seems a silly thing to say with St Nicholas Abbey only ever having ran over a mile but I am
extremely confident that he will win the Derby
. I think the further he goes the better he will be. I think that he will probably be back at some stage over 1m 2f and perhaps even 1m to prove he is "As good as Sea The Stars" (In my opinion this is rubbish, the latter being one of the best horses I am likely to see.)
The fact after two derby trial winners O’Brien is still siding with this horse should be a hint in itself. I do, however, feel the
value has gone now and would not touch a fraction below 7/2
.
Am a bit confused MickIf you are "extremely confident that he will win the Derby", why would you "not touch a fraction below 7/2"?
7/2 = 22%. If you are extremely confident, then presumably you believe St Nich has a far better chance than 22%?
St Nich deserves to be favourite, whether he deserves to be as short as he is is debatable. There must be a possibility he’s best on a soft surface, and that has to be allowed for in any value assessment.
Value Is EverythingIt seems a silly thing to say with St Nicholas Abbey only ever having ran over a mile but I am
extremely confident that he will win the Derby
. I think the further he goes the better he will be. I think that he will probably be back at some stage over 1m 2f and perhaps even 1m to prove he is "As good as Sea The Stars" (In my opinion this is rubbish, the latter being one of the best horses I am likely to see.)
The fact after two derby trial winners O’Brien is still siding with this horse should be a hint in itself. I do, however, feel the
value has gone now and would not touch a fraction below 7/2
.
Am a bit confused MickIf you are "extremely confident that he will win the Derby", why would you "not touch a fraction below 7/2"?
7/2 = 22%. If you are extremely confident, then presumably you believe St Nich has a far better chance than 22%?
St Nich deserves to be favourite, whether he deserves to be as short as he is is debatable. There must be a possibility he’s best on a soft surface, and that has to be allowed for in any value assessment.
Apologies, the point I was putting across is at this precise moment in time I think that 7/2 is a fair price. That includes the risk that he will get to Epsom, Johnny Murtagh riding him, the chance of him getting the ground he likes, Aidan O’Brien to be anywhere near form. There are a lot of risks to think about. I also used that exact price because that is the price I have on him. If I didn’t have a bet on him at the moment I would wait until the day. Then he could have a much higher percentage chance of winning.
Hope that makes sense, If he turns up on the day in good form with O’Brien’s string back in form, he gets the softer surface and Johnny is riding I will take a lot shorter.
- Total Posts 17716
Eat up boys
;http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/5460299/2/istockphoto_5460299-steak-and-chips.jpg
^^You’re basing his failure to make The Derby as conclusive proof that he has regressed?
;
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