St Leger 2014

[Anonymous]

I find it incredibly hard to see past Kingston Hill, the only horse I see troubling him could be Romsdal, that derby form is the best on offer and with KH finishing just 4l behind the winner in the Eclipse on ground not favourable to him he should be able to win this and imo 5/2 is a steal of a price.

Definite winner

[stevecaution]

This doesn’t look the strongest Leger field ever assembled.

Kingston Hill is highest rated by 5lbs from Romsdal and that rival ran poorly behind Taghrooda on his next start. Their Derby 2nd and 3rd are clearly the best looking in terms of form where group level wins are thin on the ground.

Hartnell brings the guaranteed stamina but just lacks a bit of class to my eyes.

There isn’t a lot between him, Snow Sky, Windshear and Marzocco on their combined form and I could see why Marzocco was deemed the best outsider at 33/1 by a Sporting Life columnist on that basis. He seems friendless though and 40/1 is available weeks after the bet was recommended.

I have seen both Granddukeoftuscany and Kings Fete tipped ante-post for the race but both horses did little to enhance the idea that they are good enough and they are readily passed over.

The rest don’t look up to it to me.

It has been a frustrating campaign for Kingston Hill and I think the trainer was highly ambitious starting him off in the 2000 Guineas. The stats show that Racing Post trophy winners don’t win it and Roger Varian had the additional misfortune to pitch his colt into a race including Kingman and Australia. The Eclipse also looked a bad option to me and the way it panned out tactically, he had no prayer. This must be his chance to atone for these mishaps and to me he really only has the stamina question to answer.

I wasn’t sure if Kingston Hill would stay at Epsom but he seemed fine and although this is further still, he should have something like his preferred surface and there is no Australia to face here. He’d be pretty short if stamina was certain and at 11/4 I think he’s well worth a good bet while other punters scratch around for perceived each way value in a minefield of closely matched alternatives.

I have tipped Kingston Hill up Ante-Post as two 5pt bets, making him a maximum bet now, at odds of 10/1 and I took out some insurance on Snow Sky at 9/1 a wee while ago, in case The Hill doesn’t get up the hill. Michael Stoute had a monkey on his back for a long while with the St Leger but I believe his Nayef colt can improve more than some for the step up in trip and provide the main challenge to the horse who wowed the Doncaster crowd last season.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Jonibake]

Spot on as usual Stevie. There are only 2 dangers imo, Snow Sky and Romsdal. I wasn’t a big fan of SS but she has improved with every race and ran a blinder behind a horse who should be running in the Leger. They pulled clear and I think he’ll run well. Romsdal has been cherry picked for this race for a long time by a trainer who knows exactly what to do to win this race and exactly the sort of horse you need. He was bitterly disappointing lto but was eased when his chance was gone and his previous form gives him a good ew shout.

As you say though KH is the stand-out and must take all the beating. If it was soft he would probably be close to even money. I’ll be watching with interest today as he wouldn’t want it to dry out too much more but even so he should have easily enough class to win this as long as that stamina holds out. He wasn’t stopping at Epsom though was he?!

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Anonymous]

Yeah you guys have nailed it, don’t think KH is as ground dependant as people think, only 5lengths from Night of Thunder on g/f, the derby was on good and the eclipse (which was also too short of a trip) was also on g/f if my memory serves me right. I think the main reason for them not running him much this season is because they didn’t want him to pick up an injury en-route to the big race, the Leger.

11/4 is crazy value, wouldn’t be scared of Snow Sky and I’d have a saver on Romsdal just incase, like has been said he’s definitely been targeted at this race for a while and his not-so-great running in the King George wouldn’t put me off.

[Ian]

Kingston Hill by no means a certain runner because of the ground.

I do wish trainers would get over their fixations with ground conditions. Unless it’s rock hard and unsafe or really soft that it’s not flat racing ground – RUN THEM!!!

[stevecaution]

Oh Dear, Roger Varian is shouting that he might not run Kingston Hill unless the course is watered.

He reckons there are "plenty" other targets available if they decide not to run at Doncaster.

Unless it’s pretty heavy at Longchamp I can’t see the horse having the pace to be a realistic potential winner. Good ground might not be ideal for the horse but it surely helps offset the stamina requirement at the longer trip of the St Leger.

There is a Classic sitting there that doesn’t look like it will take a lot of winning and I feel if they bypass this they may well be staring down the barrels of a season where the horse chases rainbows and wins nothing.

Roger’s handling of this horse hasn’t impressed me and it’s been a total volte face from the 18th of March when he said the following regarding sending Kingston Hill to the 2000 Guineas:-

Kingston Hill excelled on soft ground last term, but Varian is keen to see him on a sounder surface.

"I’m happy to take him on faster ground," he said. "In fact, I’m looking forward to seeing him on better ground.

"If it came up soft, it’s a comfort to know he can handle those conditions, but he’s such a good-moving horse I’d be surprised if he didn’t go as well or better on better ground."

So much for that then

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Salty]

By all means he can pull the horse out, but all this saying they run the risk of it being a non-runner unless they water is bang out of order. Hope Donny’s clerk of the course sends him back to Newmarket with his glasses shoved up his back passage.

[Jonibake]

Extraordinary behaviour from Big Rog. Disappointed because I really like him but I tend to agree with Steve – his handling of this horse is very questionable. He is a flat horse who can’t run on Good to Firm ground even though when he HAS run on that ground his form is still a lot better than all his rivals. And I’m sorry but how many other Autumn targets are there? The Arc yes but The Champion over 10f? I think not.

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[The Young Fella]

Personally, I wouldn’t back Kingston Hill whatever the ground as I think his Eclipse run was misleading and he won’t stay 1m 6f. Even so, this is getting silly. The careers of flat horses are so short and you only get one chance to run in each classic. Even if it’s not perfect – just have a go!

Aside from the Derby 2nd, it looks like a very poor Leger. When there isn’t much class to call upon in this race (even King’s Fete is getting well tipped up!!), I like to call upon the strongest stayers.

Romsdal

(by Halling) is a very thorough one who ran on strongly in the Derby. He wasn’t great in the King George, but that is factored into the price.

Hartnell

is also a very solid stayer, who will probably contest the Ascot Gold Cup in Godolphin blue next year. He was done by some nippier types in the Voltigeur, but could follow the Leading Light route to glory and bounce back.

They’re hardly bankers, but those two get my votes at the moment.

[JJMSports]

Snow Sky ante post at 6s ew the only bet I had and would like Alex My Boy were it not for the poor form of the Mark Johnston yard.

Wouldn’t mind given the Ballydoyle horse, or even Odeon a poke ew at silly prices.

[Anonymous]

Wasn’t going to have a bet but the 7/2 was too good to resist on betfair about Kingston Hill so put a cheeky £25 on him.

[stevecaution]

Well, it seems Kingston Hill is going to run and both trainer and jockey think he will stay.

7/2 is a whopping price now that he’s a definite starter.

I would draw attention to Doncaster today, where Luca Cumani’s once raced colt White Lake, who won a maiden at 25/1 on his debut, went off 8/11 favourite upped to listed class before proving disappointing in 4th place, looking like running in a lake might have helped.

It makes you wonder where punter’s heads are when you see a Group 1 winner and Derby runner up, who has run in Group 1 company the last four times, sitting at 7/2 for a race where only one other horse brings Group 1 form to the table. In fact, I don’t think anything outside of Romsdal has actually run in a Group One race?

I am puzzled to see King’s Fete tipped up so much, and sitting so low in price. The handicap he ran 2nd to Double Bluff in is stinking the formbook out and he ran behind the Gosden horse Forever Now, who isn’t even the choice of William Buick, last time in a weak looking listed event that hasn’t worked out well. James Doyle surely had the choice and has sided with Snow Sky, a move I suspect didn’t keep him awake of an evening.

Timeform go for Romsdal, Kingston Hill and Windshear 1-2-3

Their opinion is that there isn’t a lot between Windshear and Snow Sky. I’d be happy to wager Stoute’s colt against Hannon’s in a match bet tomorrow.

Win or Lose I think Kingston Hill looks a great bet at 7/2 with fewer outings than most this season and clearly the best piece of form in the book. If he doesn’t win, I am hopeful that the 5/4 I took on Australia for The Irish Champion stakes will bale me out.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[The Young Fella]

It is certainly going to be one of those where we kick ourselves if Kingston Hill does win. It looks so obvious but the vibes are so fishy. He doesn’t have a Leger pedigree either, although Mastercraftsman’s progeny have generally outrun the sire’s own distance limitations to some degree.

It’s a shame that Mighty Yar’s race is after the Leger tomorrow, because that would give some clues about King’s Fete. As Steve said, he looks some way short of the standard and is underpriced on known form.

The more I look, the keener I get on Romsdal and Hartnell. The Johnston yard nonsense is obviously a red herring, with many of his horses running career-bests in the last month in spite of tough tasks and/or prohibitive handicap marks. Both have Long Distance Cup entries and are obviously considered staying prospects. Types like this have ousted more classic middle distance horses in recent Legers.

Romsdal’s form continues to be boosted indirectly by the likes of Big Orange and Red Galileo’s recent good efforts. Hartnell at his best also comfortably holds Windshear, who ties in closely with two of the hottest formlines of the season (Elite Army and Cannock Chase). That Bahrain Trophy form, therefore, could be the most relevant piece of stamina-related information here. The Corsican, Vent De Froce and Forever Now have all boosted that race’s merits. Hartnell won it in the most aggressive fashion, making all at a good clip and showing he stays best of all.

Both need to bounce back from poor efforts that come without obvious excuses, but their prices do account for that.

[stevecaution]

I can’t believe Kings Fete is 7/1 for this, he has 11lbs to find with Romsdal and 14lbs to find with Kingston Hill. Even if one of them runs below form he still has a lot to find and has no business being half the odds of a Derby runner up here.

I picked Snow Sky as a saver at 9/1 but he’s 4/1 in places now and it’s hard to fathom that Romsdal is fully three points bigger at 7/1. Crazy stuff there and Windshear at 6/1 is a head scratcher considering a profile of so many second places and a career win haul of a maiden and a handicap. He has improved but needs to find more now and he comes from a stable whose runners are much less prolific at longer trips.

The way this is shaping up Kingston Hill could be a belting result for the bookies. All I have heard in the build up since backing Kingston Hill at 10/1 is that he wouldn’t turn up for the race. Now he is there nobody seems to want to get behind him. For the good of the race it is nice to see a Derby second and third competing. All too often it seems a case of which O’Brien 4th stringer will turn up, as the others chase bigger glory elsewhere. No disrespect to Leading Light but he’s a Cup horse who made no impact next run at Longchamp. It would surely benefit the credibility of the Oldest Classic if the Derby horses run well and pay a compliment to Australia in the process.

I feel that if Kingston Hill wins this race tomorrow, the Arc will be on the agenda. If he got soft ground in Paris and with several doubts present about the market leaders, he would surely have a good chance and be a single figure price post Leger victory. He has proven that he can race late in the season, so I am having a bet on him at 20/1 for the Arc and keeping the fingers crossed he still has 4 legs tomorrow.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Bosranic]

I really can’t look beyond the front three in the market – Kingston Hill, Snow Sky and Romsdal – for this contest, with preference for the latter.

The respective Epsom efforts of Kingston Hill and Romsdal put them head and shoulders above their rivals, but I think the Gosden-trained colt can reverse the form.

Kingston Hill went three-for-three and had bagged a Group 1 prize at this venue before Romsdal even knew what a racecourse looked like, so it’s fair to assume that the Derby third has more room for improvement and, in my opinion, will relish the extra distance. I’m not convinced the same can be said for the Racing Post Trophy winner.

Romsdal has given every indication that he will stay every yard of this trip, and his pedigree certainly supports the visual impression. His dam was a maiden, placed twice over one mile-six, while the two biggest money-spinners offered by his sire – Halling – are Cavalryman and Opinion Poll.

Snow Sky could be anything, but he has a bit to find on the leading duo and I think tomorrow will come a little too soon for him to bridge the gap. Of the remainder, Hartnell is an admirable sort who will be battling on when others are beaten – he could make the frame if the leading candidates under-perform.

My idea of the 1-2-3 :

1 Romsdal
2 Kingston Hill
3 Snow Sky

[fivelongdays]

Rather an interesting renewal – it’s fairly competitive, so…

Kingston Hill is probably the best horse in this race. However, he’s been lightly raced because of his dubious ground issues, and being by Mastercraftsman, I’d be pleasantly surprised if he stayed. As far as his Derby form goes, part of me thinks he finished second because someone had to – I think the three-year-old colts rankings go

1) Australia
2) The Grey Gatsby
3) Everyone Else

Plus, you suspect he’s a wee bit of a Leger afterthought, so I can’t be having him at the price.

On the other hand, I really like Snow Sky. He’s usually there or there abouts, being second in the GV isn’t exactly the end of the world, and you’d think he’s prepped for this.

Of the rest, Hartnell and Windshear look very promising. We know Hartnell will stay, and Windshear has a good staying pedigree. However, the March Stakes looks rather good. Alex My Boy was a touch unlucky, and Forever Now is tough, and will get the trip easily.

So, I’m going to take three against the field – Snow Sky, Alex My Boy, Forever Now.

BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social

So don't run, just like the others always do

[Anonymous]

Well we called it

[Author]

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